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ralphmalph

Who Would Have Believed It?

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Amazing, those Frenchies sure kept that one quiet. Did they MEW like crazy as well?

You can't move for 4x4 Citroens and 106.68cm Les Plasmes over there.

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What the graph really says is France has had bigger relative price rises since 2005. Not difficult as prices in the UK have been almost flat since 2004...

Edited by AteMoose

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So Germany ie either a complete basket case or we should all be getting in right now bing time. If you beleive that chart.

A very big if.

All the lines converge at 2005 = 100, so it's just relative; ie French prices coming off a very, very low base.

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They certainly are but Germany had a different direction to the rest. Either it is manifestly wrong with respect to Germany or the recent recovery from the low in Germany after long declines signals a huge buy position.

No its just the germans arent as big a mugs as most other countries in this respect so tax property in most parts in a way to make speculation more or less redundant.

What the german market effectively shows is the power of taxation and good govt in avoiding economically destructive malinvestment.in this specific case

unfortunately it didnt stop there fckwitted banks from buying allsorts of shite from elsewhere

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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house-prices.gif

http://blogs.telegra...operty-bubbles/

Amazing, those Frenchies sure kept that one quiet. Did they MEW like crazy as well?

French banks lent 2 or 3 times as much as US banks, for an economy an eigth of the size. France is the European elephant in the room, experts at hiding deficits for generations. What cheeses me off is the whole pretense of helping the Greeks when they were just trying to swave their asses. The french situation is highly precarious.

If what I heard is correct, most of the lending was to local BTL 'investors' and to foreigners to bypass regulations. They have the 120%, interest only, 50 year mortgages to 40 year olds, the lot. But that waon't stop them lecturing the rest of the world about 'sound lending' while busily trying to hide the mess they're in.

A ponzi-inflation economy at its best, with hypocrisy on top for good measure.

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I think the line for germany is wrong

I doubt it , it bares high correlation with Swiss price index, they had big bubbles in the 80s like the UK and as a result adapted their taxation and lending policies to stop it happening again. The UK naturally took the other opinion that the 90s declines were so fantastic economically that they should do it all over again but this time on a nuclear scale

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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England houses look cheap in 97. Although probably a lot smaller than houses in the other countries.

They were very cheap in 1997 around most places, London was very cheap in 1995 and then took off like a rocket.

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I doubt it , it bares high correlation with Swiss price index, they had big bubbles in the 80s like the UK and as a result adapted their taxation and lending policies to stop it happening again. The UK naturally took the other opinion that the 90s declines were so fantastic economically that they should do it all over again but this time on a nuclear scale

I'm not question the flatness of their line but merely the level at which it is at.

I've seen other research notes having the same flat line but a lot lower. However not sure exactly what that line in measuring.

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I doubt it , it bares high correlation with Swiss price index, they had big bubbles in the 80s like the UK and as a result adapted their taxation and lending policies to stop it happening again. The UK naturally took the other opinion that the 90s declines were so fantastic economically that they should do it all over again but this time on a nuclear scale

Your words, sometimes they hurt.

Yours Sincerely,

Gordon.

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No its just the germans arent as big a mugs as most other countries in this respect so tax property in most parts in a way to make speculation more or less redundant.

What the german market effectively shows is the power of taxation and good govt in avoiding economically destructive malinvestment.in this specific case

unfortunately it didnt stop there fckwitted banks from buying allsorts of shite from elsewhere

No tax on any capital gain on the house you occupy as your main residence after 3 years. After 7 years for others, including UK style BTL. Estate agent fees typically 5% paid by the buyer. Legal fees about 3.5% of sale price. Cost of buying a house, typically 10% of sale price. Minimum rental contract 2yrs. Old houses slowly falling for about last 10 years, new houses slowly rising, but big regional variations.

It all add up to a very stable housing market. People very rarely move or sell a house, compared to the numbers who do so in England.

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that is a dumb article. They rebased the line at 2005 to make that equal 100. The fact the UK isn't the highest on the list is simply because we were already stalling at 2005. If they'd based 1997=100 then the graph would have shown the uk had the biggest bubble. The UK had the highest proportional increase.

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Schizenhaussen I was just on the blower to the broker to see what LVR a foreign national could get buying a gaff in Germany with a gerry bank

I here the yields are still pretty good in Berlin

"Ich bin ein Berliner"

You might not know but a Berliner is a type of cake resembling a doughnut. Therefore, when you say Ich bin ein Berliner, your are actually saying, I am a doughnut. :D

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What it also points out is how far prices still have to fall outside the US to catch up with the falls experienced by our American cousins.

maybe. but its a different market and different currency.

we shall have to wait and see

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There has undoubtedly been a French property bubble but it was a much more recent phenomena in France.

Two mitigating factors would be

1) they came from a low base, France has traditionally had a renting culture so part of the boom could be explained by a switch from tenancy to ownership,

2) the French mortgage market was much more tightly controlled, as far as I can tell self - cert mortgages were virtually inexistant and mortgage to income ratio rarely went beyond x3.5.

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No tax on any capital gain on the house you occupy as your main residence after 3 years. After 7 years for others, including UK style BTL. Estate agent fees typically 5% paid by the buyer. Legal fees about 3.5% of sale price. Cost of buying a house, typically 10% of sale price. Minimum rental contract 2yrs. Old houses slowly falling for about last 10 years, new houses slowly rising, but big regional variations.

It all add up to a very stable housing market. People very rarely move or sell a house, compared to the numbers who do so in England.

According to this site, an average 1300 sq ft family house in the former West Germany costs €255,000. House prices there might be following a different trajectory to ours, but they seem overpriced nonetheless. I doubt German first time buyers are earning enough to make much of a dent in a quarter of a million euros (or whatever a smaller FTB property costs proportionally).

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According to this site, an average 1300 sq ft family house in the former West Germany costs €255,000. House prices there might be following a different trajectory to ours, but they seem overpriced nonetheless. I doubt German first time buyers are earning enough to make much of a dent in a quarter of a million euros (or whatever a smaller FTB property costs proportionally).

That is more expensive than average UK prices. 120sqm isn't a massive house, the place I'm sat in is bigger and much better value.

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does that have anything to do with a less mobile workforce?

That may be the case. My impression though, after a good few years here, is that mobility is not seen as a very desirable thing. at least in the area where I live, its common, especially in rural areas, for people to spend there whole life in one village, or, if they do move away, they often return.

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According to this site, an average 1300 sq ft family house in the former West Germany costs €255,000. House prices there might be following a different trajectory to ours, but they seem overpriced nonetheless. I doubt German first time buyers are earning enough to make much of a dent in a quarter of a million euros (or whatever a smaller FTB property costs proportionally).

House prices in Germany are not cheap. The difference is that the proportion of people who buy is lower and they tend to be those with good jobs who can afford it. It is normal here to buy your first house in your late thirties allowing people to save for a good ten years prior to buying (helped by relatively low rental costs and static house prices).

I did notice an upturn in the graph just about the time I bought mine here :).

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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