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Guest wrongmove

Sterling Up By 2.5c Today

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http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/.../12/default.stm

Does anyone have an explanation ? I am interested, because of course, strong pound means more scope for rate cuts....

I take it that sterling is strong against the dollar, the

dollar being weakened by Katrina and the release

of oil from the National Storage Facility.

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Let's see: gas prices in America are up a dollar or more a gallon, New Orleans is history, there was lousy US manufacturing data released yesterday, more bad data is expected today, and there'll be pressure on Greenspan not to raise rates any higher.

Doesn't seem like that's going to be too good for America's prospects in the near term.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Does anyone have an explanation ? I am interested, because of course, strong pound means more scope for rate cuts....

From Credit Action Stats

At the end of July 2005 the total UK personal debt was £1,114bn. The growth rate remains strong at 10.7% for the previous 12 months. 2004 saw the largest single-year increase in debt (£116bn) since the Bank of England was founded in 1694.

Well if the BoE are responsible for financial stability and dealing with rising inflation I can`t see any possibility of rate cuts more like a few .25% hikes.

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Guest wrongmove
From Credit Action Stats

Well if the BoE are responsible for financial stability and dealing with rising inflation I can`t see any possibility of rate cuts more like a few .25% hikes.

I agree Charlie. I guess some combinations of the suggestions given above is more likely. Cheers.

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Our turn will no doubt come soon

Yes, but hopefully it gives us a chance to get out of Sterling at a reasonable exchange rate :).

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I might start the dash for gold - I'm sure getting jumpy!

I think this is a knee jerk reaction as the ISM manufacturing index has declined massively in its significance from the 1960, 1970s and 1980s and early 1990s.

This index only represents 25% of the economy, while its now the services like software, banking, insurance, real estate, derivatives etc.. represent the other 75%. Add on Greenspans comments about how America is moving away from making things in its future, and you get a different picture.

Greenspan will tighten.

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http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/.../12/default.stm

Does anyone have an explanation ? I am interested, because of course, strong pound means more scope for rate cuts....

yes,US Growth likely to falter as a result of this,but in the interim it means inflation is rising in the US,so I'm afraid short-term your rate cut theory is wrong.

inflation also rising here and HPC needs to get going soon in order to peg cable to dollar.(if it doesn't then you will be looking at UK manufacture armageddon along with a service slowdown)

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I'm afraid short-term your rate cut theory is wrong.

Can you imagine the press reaction if Greenspan raises interest rates while gas is at $4 a gallon, manufacturing is heading to a recession, people are talking about petrol rationing, and New Orleans is looking like something out of a 'Mad Max' movie?

Maybe he will -- after all he doesn't have long to go in his job now -- but I think the odds are fairly slim: in fact, _because_ he doesn't have long to go he probably doesn't want to go out on such a low point. It may be the sensible thing to do, but it's politically unlikely.

And that, I suspect, is one of the main reasons why the dollar is collapsing.

inflation also rising here and HPC needs to get going soon in order to peg cable to dollar

Why the hell should we tie ourselves to a dying currency, particularly when it means the cost of oil _here_ will greatly increase?

Edited by MarkG

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Sterling is not strong- The DOLLAR IS WEAK.

Why?

Simple really.  The US has lost a big part of its US Gulf oil prioduction,

and is going to have to import alot more foreign oil.  Thsi will worsen its

trade deficit.  That is bad for the dollar.

The Fed may also keep rates from rsing too fast, to help cushion the damaged

economy in New Orleans.  Rate-restraint will also hurt the dollar

Hope you are long some gold shares now

Not correct. GBP is up against all main currencies today including EUR 0.44% and JPY 0.89% But I'm sure the main story is US oil problems.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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