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Muswell Hillbilly

Scottish Housing Market Picks Up

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-10850518

‘Latest figures have shown a 30% rise in the number of houses sold in Scotland between April and June this year compared to the previous quarter.’

No shit Sherlock! More homes sold in the spring than in the winter! Whatever next? Ice-cream market rebounds, as 50% more ice creams were sold in July and August than in January!

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-10850518

‘Latest figures have shown a 30% rise in the number of houses sold in Scotland between April and June this year compared to the previous quarter.’

No shit Sherlock! More homes sold in the spring than in the winter! Whatever next? Ice-cream market rebounds, as 50% more ice creams were sold in July and August than in January!

Hopefully the June monthly figures will be on the RoS site soon.

We are looking in East Ren' - the month-by-month volumes are still about 50% of the 2006-7 peak sales.

Shame comments aren't allowed on this Pravda article. Hardly surprising though...

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Your VI conspiracy theories don't hold up.

The figures are (according to Reporting Scotland) based on the same period last year and are therefore like vs like over a year.

The question is, how have house sales strengthened so much and how has the price continued to go up over the year???

I must say I'm baffled, though these deals would have been agreed and/or completed before the emergency budget and therefore before a slightly darker cloud started to spread through the media. But if we don't start seeing some real drops pronto then I might start to get worried.

Edit: Just to say that I don't see much evidence of house volumes going up in my region - all the same houses are still there from 1-2 years ago. I don't as yet see much give on prices either though.

Edited by catmandu

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-10850518

‘Latest figures have shown a 30% rise in the number of houses sold in Scotland between April and June this year compared to the previous quarter.’

No shit Sherlock! More homes sold in the spring than in the winter! Whatever next? Ice-cream market rebounds, as 50% more ice creams were sold in July and August than in January!

Well I know two people who have just secured (about to secure) flat purchases.

One is paying just shy of £250K for a two bed place. The confidence in the market is still there, people are still buying.

Whether they should be buying or not is another matter, one is already talking about maybe needing help from the bank of mum and day for the mortgage (and factoring fees, CT etc). I will need to be sure I dont mention the potential for rising interest rates in their vicinity....

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Your VI conspiracy theories don't hold up.

The figures are (according to Reporting Scotland) based on the same period last year and are therefore like vs like over a year.

The question is, how have house sales strengthened so much and how has the price continued to go up over the year???

I must say I'm baffled, though these deals would have been agreed and/or completed before the emergency budget and therefore before a slightly darker cloud started to spread through the media. But if we don't start seeing some real drops pronto then I might start to get worried.

Edit: Just to say that I don't see much evidence of house volumes going up in my region - all the same houses are still there from 1-2 years ago. I don't as yet see much give on prices either though.

The simple fact Reporting Scotland reported on this backs up the VI more than enough. They do not report on any figures that are negative for house prices. Well I think they have once in the past 3 years or something.

House sales have strenghtened as they were so low last year. They are still ~ 50% off peak in Edinburgh. A bit less actually IIRC.

Prices are appearing to go up due to the fact that FTB places just are not selling. 'Average' price is very skewed as a result. I think patience is still the key.

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The simple fact Reporting Scotland reported on this backs up the VI more than enough. They do not report on any figures that are negative for house prices. Well I think they have once in the past 3 years or something.

House sales have strenghtened as they were so low last year. They are still ~ 50% off peak in Edinburgh. A bit less actually IIRC.

Prices are appearing to go up due to the fact that FTB places just are not selling. 'Average' price is very skewed as a result. I think patience is still the key.

Well, they just took the data and reported on it with little real analysis, as usual taking the position that house price inflation is good.

I didn't see much VI - I also didn't see much quality news reporting.

Edit: It's all very well reporting that volumes are down 50% from peak, but I suspect that peak was about 20% more volume than the market would normally have. Perhaps we're not actually that far short of normal volumes already.

Edited by catmandu

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Well, they just took the data and reported on it with little real analysis, as usual taking the position that house price inflation is good.

I didn't see much VI - I also didn't see much quality news reporting.

Sounds like standard Reporting Scotland !!

They seem to have forgotten about their previous favourite the Lloyds TSB House price monitor ?

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Edit: It's all very well reporting that volumes are down 50% from peak, but I suspect that peak was about 20% more volume than the market would normally have. Perhaps we're not actually that far short of normal volumes already.

Could be true. Don't have the data further back to check. But then 'normal' volumes should really lead to 'normal' prices shouldn't it ? Eventually anyway.

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The simple fact Reporting Scotland reported on this backs up the VI more than enough. They do not report on any figures that are negative for house prices. Well I think they have once in the past 3 years or something.

Conversely, would any suggestion that the BBC is not allowed to publish facts not to HPC's liking also be evidence of a vested interest?

Just saying. ;)

Edited by Jadoube

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Could be true. Don't have the data further back to check. But then 'normal' volumes should really lead to 'normal' prices shouldn't it ? Eventually anyway.

I think one of the problems is deciding when we had 'normal' volumes and prices.

I've attached East Ren' data which shows these two parameters since March '03 - I don't have ROS data for before this date.

East Ren' prices & volumes etc.pdf

East Ren' prices & volumes etc.pdf

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Your VI conspiracy theories don't hold up.

The figures are (according to Reporting Scotland) based on the same period last year and are therefore like vs like over a year.

Edited as have just seen the evening Reporting Scotland feature.

Edited by pyracantha

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Edit: It's all very well reporting that volumes are down 50% from peak, but I suspect that peak was about 20% more volume than the market would normally have. Perhaps we're not actually that far short of normal volumes already.

Ok if you are right, with your numbers that places us at 40% down from normal sales volumes. I'd say that's still "far short of normal volumes".

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I've updated my s/sheet for East Ren' with the latest ROS data and have plotted a YOY June chart.

Volume of Sales (blue line) have risen but are still the lowest since at least 2003. Average prices (orange line) have dropped again and are now mid-way between 2006 and 2007 values - the shape of this plot looks kinda familiar...

East Ren' June YOY.pdf

East Ren' June YOY.pdf

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Well I know two people who have just secured (about to secure) flat purchases.

One is paying just shy of £250K for a two bed place. The confidence in the market is still there, people are still buying.

Whether they should be buying or not is another matter, one is already talking about maybe needing help from the bank of mum and day for the mortgage (and factoring fees, CT etc). I will need to be sure I dont mention the potential for rising interest rates in their vicinity....

"I will need to be sure I dont mention the potential for rising interest rates in their vicinity.... "

on the contrary, please do.

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Conversely, would any suggestion that the BBC is not allowed to publish facts not to HPC's liking also be evidence of a vested interest?

Just saying. ;)

But they pick and choose in the most obvious way. I watch it almost every day as it is usually on about when I get in from work.

What about when the RoS figures were showing sales down 50% ? Prices down 10-15% all over the shop ? Where was the main news story there on Reporting Scotland ? Nice charts for all to see ?

Oh yes, it didn't happen. They have the very occasional 'negative' house price story. But even this is always laced with the underlying message they are trying to get across. They probably do it just in case anyone actually bothers to explain. Pick it out to 'prove' they do have balanced reporting after all.

They do not report in a balanced way. That is 100% true. For a publicly funded news that is pretty shocking IMO.

I suppose some would argue that the public would prefer house prices rising to be seen as a 'positive' story instead of a negative one. However this is not really fact. Most surveys show a pretty even split between opinions.

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Forgot to mention the final line in the story that stuck in my mind. Was talking about hte housing market get back to normaility of something like that.

'Return to the usual profitability' was used. Or something very similar. The bit in bold was definitely used.

Says it all. We want to return to making profits out of housing. That's what it is all about. They still don't get it.

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But they pick and choose in the most obvious way. I watch it almost every day as it is usually on about when I get in from work.

What about when the RoS figures were showing sales down 50% ? Prices down 10-15% all over the shop ? Where was the main news story there on Reporting Scotland ? Nice charts for all to see ?

Oh yes, it didn't happen. They have the very occasional 'negative' house price story. But even this is always laced with the underlying message they are trying to get across. They probably do it just in case anyone actually bothers to explain. Pick it out to 'prove' they do have balanced reporting after all.

They do not report in a balanced way. That is 100% true. For a publicly funded news that is pretty shocking IMO.

I suppose some would argue that the public would prefer house prices rising to be seen as a 'positive' story instead of a negative one. However this is not really fact. Most surveys show a pretty even split between opinions.

Sadly, from my experience - I've spoken to dozens of people about Scottish/Edinburgh house prices and only one person thought that rising prices are a rather bad thing. The rest of them thought it was a very good thing or at least a good sign of 'recovery/growing economy'.

And when you openly state that Edinburgh could benefit from less expensive houses (with hard-earned cash being spent elesewhere) - people thing that you're a complete lunatic (even those who haven't bought yet).

And falling house prices are always painted as tragic news by the BBC Scotland - they're extremely subjective.

Edited by Pole

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Sadly, from my experience - I've spoken to dozens of people about Scottish/Edinburgh house prices and only one person thought that rising prices are a rather bad thing. The rest of them thought it was a very good thing or at least a good sign of 'recovery/growing economy'.

And when you openly state that Edinburgh could benefit from less expensive houses (with hard-earned cash being spent elesewhere) - people thing that you're a complete lunatic (even those who haven't bought yet).

And falling house prices are always painted as tragic news by the BBC Scotland - they're extremely subjective.

It is probably an age thing ? Most in their early 30's or less I speak to think the opposite.

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It is probably an age thing ? Most in their early 30's or less I speak to think the opposite.

yeah, could be a generational thing...

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It is probably an age thing ? Most in their early 30's or less I speak to think the opposite.

My cousin who is 35 bought his flat for £32k in 2001. Similar flats were £85k/£90k at the peak. The average wage round here is rubbish.

My Mrs is a teacher so on decent money and I have had a few promotions so am earning well above average now. I just dont see how a young person on average wage can buy an average 1 bedroom Lanarkshire tenement/new flat in an area that is not akin to Beiruit.

I think our generation has been screwed by the generation above. :(

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The Scotsman's on the case.

Soaring house sales fuel confidence in recovery.

Lots of focus on volumes and not so much on prices. To be fair, some of the experts [resists temptation to enclose that word in quotes] are being fairly cautious.

There's also this from the guy who I think is their personal finance editor: Jeff Salway: 'First-time buyers are largely frozen out of the market'. He doesn't sound terribly optimistic.

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All very depressing. IF prices don't come down to reasonable levels I just don't know what to do - sure as hell can't properly afford one at these prices.

There should be a trial for this impartial reporting - an absolute disgrace - really makes my blood boil.

And yes - idiots everywhere. The mother of one of my friends used to be a mortgage advisor for Clydsdale bank and thinks rising prices are a great thing.

Mates who have big mortgages now feel the pressure - wouldn't want to be in their shoes. But I need some place to live, and rents are almost as high as mortgages!

Edited by guitarman001

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The Scotsman's on the case.

Soaring house sales fuel confidence in recovery.

Lots of focus on volumes and not so much on prices. To be fair, some of the experts [resists temptation to enclose that word in quotes] are being fairly cautious.

There's also this from the guy who I think is their personal finance editor: Jeff Salway: 'First-time buyers are largely frozen out of the market'. He doesn't sound terribly optimistic.

Headline is all very excitable - 'Soaring'. However the article itself ? Far from optimistic (In the we all want prices to rise forever sense of the word)

Have a look at the comments. The worm has turned. Many people see that high prices are a bad thing in general.

Of course there are lots that do not. However it is a far more even spread than even 2 years ago.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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