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Realistbear

Recovery Locked In As Pound Approaches 1.60

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We are on the cusp, one gust of wind and the game is up...

http://www.investica.co.uk/comment.htm

Confidence in the UK economy can remain firmer in the near term, but there are still very important risks which should not be ignored. Confidence in the housing sector is liable to weaken further and trigger an important negative switch in confidence surrounding the wider economy. Trends in risk appetite will remain important and markets look to be pricing in too much of an improvement. Any reassessment of the global financial risk would increase the risk of fresh selling pressure on Sterling. Given the domestic and international risk profile, selling GBP/USD on any approach to 1.60 looks the best strategy .

Sterling has continued to advance and take advantage of the US vulnerability over the past 24 hours with a high just above 1.5950 against the dollar in Europe on Tuesday.

The construction PMI index weakened to 54.1 for July from 58.4 previously which was a 4-month low and will maintain a degree of unease over the housing sector.

Edited by MrFlibble

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It'll probably go down again in a few weeks. Then up again. Then down again. Then up again.

People will think there are deep, fundamental reasons for this happening.

They will be wrong.

When I was a kid there used to be a chip shop round the corner with a fruit machine.

Kindly souls that they were, the chip shop owners usd to let us hang around inside and put our pocket money in the machine.

One kid was particularly fascinated by the machine. He would observe it for hours. Every now and then the machine would beep, etc, or flash in an unusual way. Or maybe payout 3 times in a row. Or something else. The kid would interpret this behaviour in weird and wonderful ways, like "it's going to pay out on the third go after making that beep". The ultimate was the machine reset, where you pulled the plug and "reset the machines memory" so it was ready for a big payout. You had to do this while the owners weren't looking, otherwise you got a bollocking.

One thing I figured out pretty quickly was that the kid who liked playing the machine never had any money.

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Sterling seems to have dropped its drawers after posting a triple top. Way too many sellers on the approach to the 1.60 level from the looks of it. The tussle begins...

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When I was a kid there used to be a chip shop round the corner with a fruit machine.

Kindly souls that they were, the chip shop owners usd to let us hang around inside and put our pocket money in the machine.

One kid was particularly fascinated by the machine. He would observe it for hours. Every now and then the machine would beep, etc, or flash in an unusual way. Or maybe payout 3 times in a row. Or something else. The kid would interpret this behaviour in weird and wonderful ways, like "it's going to pay out on the third go after making that beep". The ultimate was the machine reset, where you pulled the plug and "reset the machines memory" so it was ready for a big payout. You had to do this while the owners weren't looking, otherwise you got a bollocking.

One thing I figured out pretty quickly was that the kid who liked playing the machine never had any money.

Nicely put!

It is pure speculation right now. There may be some indicators for currencies under less turbulent circumstances, but right now it is total speculation

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There are some people talking utter balls regarding currencies. The pound is just doing what it was going to do after a massive fall: rise. It's not difficult to understand. :rolleyes:

And whilst I agree house prices will fall, substantially, don't be so sure the pound will do the same.

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I actually believe in the next 3-5year window, the UK govt could get the UK economy back on track faster than the US and Eurozones so much so I think Sterling could become the reserve currency again taking over from the Dollar!

Why?

The UK has greater media manipulation than any other country apart from the likes of North Korea and China. Sad fact however this can be useful in manipulating the sheeple in the direction you want them to go, HPI is just one such example and why alot of us are on here, the end part of Topgear Sunday night is another such example, its subtle but there is a shift in programming taking place in the BBC right now.

The US has passed the mathmatical possibility of being able to repay its debts in a timely manner. When the focus shifts more onto to the US which it will do in time the $ will devalue even more. The US Rating Agencies will also be coming under global scrutiny soon as well but the US needs the $ to devalue, and I will go so far as to say yes we could be seeing a $3:£1 when the US loses its reserve currency status!

The Eurozone has too many countries all fighting their corner, this political force pulling in all directions will lessen confidence in the Euro to sort its finances out, a recent example being the Greek bailout.

The fact the UK is using its Empirical influence to do deals with growing countries like Brazil, India and China is not to be under estimated.

You will see more Asian money coming into the UK as well, Liverpool football club is one current potential example.

The Chinese will use their money to buy into key UK institutes to further improve their (political) image overseas as they have done with US sport clubs already.

The UK will try to contain the strength of the £ as this happens but I actually favour the UK's chances better than the US and Eurozone, one such example being the fact alot of the UK debt has been rolled over for 12years, others have only rolled their debts over for the short term 3month - 5year time frames which wont do any favours in restoring confidence in a currency when financing runs dry or at a higher rate which is inevitable.

They haven't touched the 'spivs' in the City - even 'J.C' Clarkson got hammered!

Same fraudsters in place, running under the same non-regulation.

The next major crash that they will cause - will probably wipe us out!

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America is bust. It started there. It remains there. they do nothing except spend. manufacturing is up because of the spending. Ipods for every American government worker.

America is eating its own waste product.

simples.

+1 even though the taxes are low compared to EU. The benefits are low also. The USA is a well skilled but has a massively immobile work force, they are loaded with natural resources but it's gunna take 5 years + to get them on-line at current market rates and until China de-peg the currency it makes no sense for big business to start investing in the required infrastructure.....and all the time, those that stand to gain the most are still funding that deficit?

They do have an the default/inflation alternative and they would be mad not to exercise it IMO. On the world stage, they may be up to their arses in debt, but debt is just a $'S debt away from the printing press.

When it comes to skill/resources. They still rule the world and all without massive amounts of suppression... Land f the free..Yes! But also the land of the massively in debt.

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Recovery Locked In As Pound Approaches 1.60

:lol: I see your GBP predictions are every bit as shite as your gold predictions!

1 GBP =

1.45973

It hit a high of 1.476 earlier today.

I am massively short on sterling (CABLE bet) and started to get slightly nervous.

Edited by InternationalRockSuperstar

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I actually believe in the next 3-5year window, the UK govt could get the UK economy back on track faster than the US and Eurozones so much so I think Sterling could become the reserve currency again taking over from the Dollar!

Why?

The UK has greater media manipulation than any other country apart from the likes of North Korea and China. Sad fact however this can be useful in manipulating the sheeple in the direction you want them to go, HPI is just one such example and why alot of us are on here, the end part of Topgear Sunday night is another such example, its subtle but there is a shift in programming taking place in the BBC right now.

The US has passed the mathmatical possibility of being able to repay its debts in a timely manner. When the focus shifts more onto to the US which it will do in time the $ will devalue even more. The US Rating Agencies will also be coming under global scrutiny soon as well but the US needs the $ to devalue, and I will go so far as to say yes we could be seeing a $3:£1 when the US loses its reserve currency status!

The Eurozone has too many countries all fighting their corner, this political force pulling in all directions will lessen confidence in the Euro to sort its finances out, a recent example being the Greek bailout.

The fact the UK is using its Empirical influence to do deals with growing countries like Brazil, India and China is not to be under estimated.

You will see more Asian money coming into the UK as well, Liverpool football club is one current potential example.

The Chinese will use their money to buy into key UK institutes to further improve their (political) image overseas as they have done with US sport clubs already.

The UK will try to contain the strength of the £ as this happens but I actually favour the UK's chances better than the US and Eurozone, one such example being the fact alot of the UK debt has been rolled over for 12years, others have only rolled their debts over for the short term 3month - 5year time frames which wont do any favours in restoring confidence in a currency when financing runs dry or at a higher rate which is inevitable.

The only thing you may have given too little credit for is our 4-5TR government debt. Now said to be over 100% of GDP whereas the US are faced with debt at 90% GDP (Japan leads with 200%). The interest is accruing at a rate 15% faster thgan we plan to pay it off--and that is growing daily. We are literally drowning in debt.

On the face of it, these levels of debt are of no consequence all the time our credit remains good. The credit ratings folks have given us a "negative" outlook but we are still good to borrow more. How long will this go on? I suspect they will pull the plug on us before they do the US because the US own the credit ratings agencies and control the bond markets that react to the ratings.

IMO the only thing holding us up at the moment is our resilient housing market. 4 months in a row of fractional drops has not been enough to shake the market. A few months of -1% or more and Sterling will tank and that is 100% guaranteed, certain.

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:lol: I see your GBP predictions are every bit as shite as your gold predictions!

My GBP prediction was the most accurate of any forecaster! Crimbo 2009 I predicted the Pound would drop below 1.50. It did just that! Did you miss it?

Gold is a ticking time bomb--7 successive tops and no break out may be saying it is long since time when you should have dumped your hoard.

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Gold is a ticking time bomb--7 successive tops and no break out may be saying it is long since time when you should have dumped your hoard.

I took a punt on the price of gold yesterday.Sold my holding in Chloride and Bought African Barrick Gold at 536p.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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