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Us Treasury Projects A $13.9 Trillion Debt Balance At December 31, Anticipates Debt Ceiling Breach Some Time In February 2011

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The Treasury has just released its most recent quarterly borrowing estimate for fiscal Q4 2010 and Q1 2011 (or the next two quarters in normal speak). The government now anticipates a funding need of $350 billion and $380 billion in the next two quarters. While the $350 billion number is a slight reduction from the prior estimate of $376 billion, historically the Treasury has been unduly and overly optimistic in determining its debt issuance requirements. With the June 30 total debt balance of $13.203 trillion, it means the Treasury itself now anticipates total debt at just under $14 trillion (or $13.93 trillion to be precise). This equates to about $13.88 trillion in debt subject to limit (which at last check was $14.3 trillion). Looks like the Treasury will not need to raise the debt ceiling before the midterm elections after all: perhaps this is what the market is celebrating today: nothing less than the latest and greatest example of news slightly better than a worst-case scenario. We also learn that, "during the April - June 2010 quarter, Treasury issued $344 billion in net marketable debt, and finished the quarter with a cash balance of $290 billion, of which $200 billion was attributable to the SFP. In May, Treasury estimated $340 billion in net marketable borrowing and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $280 billion, which included an SFP balance of $200 billion. The increase in the cash balance related to higher net cash flows and net marketable borrowing." And with every new auction pushing the US debt further higher into "never repayable" territory, the Bid To Cover grows ever higher. And in fact, don't look now, but the last time the market was at 1,125, the 10 Year was just 45 bps higher than the current 2.96%, confirming that all is perfectly illogical with the world.

Additionally, based on the hidden rows (71-76) in the treasury's Sources and Uses excel file, the US will see a financing need of $430 billion in the January-March 2011 quarter: in other words the Debt Ceiling will be breached some time in mid-February 2011.

More at the link.

It's only paper money anyway, it's not real. The figures are nothing but an illusion of wealth......

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