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Realistbear

Bill Gross: Deflation Is Not Theory "its Happening"

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http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110209/big-investors-fear-deflation;_ylt=AmmEqJk5cGy76KRvR3gFEpS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2c3NpNHRsBHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDdG9waW52ZXN0b3Jz?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Big Investors Fear Deflation
by Gregory "Greg" Zuckerman
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Some of the world's leading investors are becoming more worried about deflation and are re-shaping their portfolios to prepare for a possible period of falling prices.
Bond-fund heavyweight Bill Gross, investment manager Jeremy Grantham and hedge-fund managers David Tepper and Alan Fournier are among the best-known investors who are bracing for a possible bout of deflation, a development that could cripple global economies and world stock markets.
More from WSJ.com:
• Treasurys Slide on Upbeat Earnings
• Gordon Brown seen wearing beard with head shaven.
• Treasurys Slide on Upbeat Earnings
The investors cite weak economic figures and a mounting consensus that global policy makers are reluctant, or unable, to take further steps to boost economic growth as reasons for their market positions.
"Deflation isn't just a topic of intellectual curiosity, it's happening," says Mr. Gross, who runs the $239 billion mutual fund Pimco Total Return Fund, citing an annualized 0.1% decline over the past two years in the U.S. consumer-price index. "It's an uncertain world that's tipping toward deflation."

Bill called the HPC correctly. He is a voice worth listening too.

I listen to Bill and have most of my retirement savings in his Total Return Fund which is almost up 7% YTD.

Deflation cometh.

What will deflation mean?

1. A glorious HPC of unprecedented proportions.

2. Buggeration for everything else.

If its inflation it will mean:

1. Inglorious HPI.

2. Buggeration for everything else.

Edited by Realistbear

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Does he give a date?

Isn't he a Yank - meaning his thoughts are US centric?

What does he advise to do - get into cash?

No, Bill works for a European bank.

Front wheeler and very much a prophetic voice. He was dead on in predicting the big HPC and warned about soveriegn debt a year before anyone noticed it might be a problem.

His multi billion $ bond fund has almost outperformed all others. Smart man is Bill. Queer looking moosh too.

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No, Bill works for a European bank.

Front wheeler and very much a prophetic voice. He was dead on in predicting the big HPC and warned about soveriegn debt a year before anyone noticed it might be a problem.

His multi billion $ bond fund has almost outperformed all others. Smart man is Bill. Queer looking moosh too.

Maybe I will give him my house buying fund. Was going to spend it on Noodle's ladygirls.

:huh:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110209/big-investors-fear-deflation;_ylt=AmmEqJk5cGy76KRvR3gFEpS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2c3NpNHRsBHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDdG9waW52ZXN0b3Jz?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Big Investors Fear Deflation
by Gregory "Greg" Zuckerman
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Some of the world's leading investors are becoming more worried about deflation and are re-shaping their portfolios to prepare for a possible period of falling prices.
Bond-fund heavyweight Bill Gross, investment manager Jeremy Grantham and hedge-fund managers David Tepper and Alan Fournier are among the best-known investors who are bracing for a possible bout of deflation, a development that could cripple global economies and world stock markets.
More from WSJ.com:
• Treasurys Slide on Upbeat Earnings
• Gordon Brown seen wearing beard with head shaven.
• Treasurys Slide on Upbeat Earnings
The investors cite weak economic figures and a mounting consensus that global policy makers are reluctant, or unable, to take further steps to boost economic growth as reasons for their market positions.
"Deflation isn't just a topic of intellectual curiosity, it's happening," says Mr. Gross, who runs the $239 billion mutual fund Pimco Total Return Fund, citing an annualized 0.1% decline over the past two years in the U.S. consumer-price index. "It's an uncertain world that's tipping toward deflation."

Bill called the HPC correctly. He is a voice worth listening too.

I listen to Bill and have most of my retirement savings in his Total Return Fund which is almost up 7% YTD.

Deflation cometh.

What will deflation mean?

1. A glorious HPC of unprecedented proportions.

2. Buggeration for everything else.

If its inflation it will mean:

1. Inglorious HPI.

2. Buggeration for everything else.

I will believe it when CPI goes negative as opposed to 50% over the target. Do you remember how wrong Bill Gross was on gilts?

How are your dollar assets doing?

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Bloomberg
Pimco’s Bill Gross Says Bonds Have Seen Best Days (Update2)
March 25, 2010
, 12:39 PM EDT
By Thomas R. Keene and Susanne Walker
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the almost three-decade bond market rally may be drawing to a close.
Excess borrowing in nations including the U.S., U.K. and Japan will eventually lead to inflation as governments sell record amounts of debt to finance surging deficits, Gross said. Pimco, which announced in December that it would offer stock funds for the first time, is advising that investors buy the debt of counties such as Germany and Canada that have low deficits and higher-yielding corporate securities.
“Bonds have seen their best days,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “We are focused more in spread space than in yield space. Durations should be shorter than index and you should be taking a little more risk in terms of spreads.”

This illustrates how even the best get confused.

I am a little worried though as the apparent shift in tack is based on what appears to be the end of QE and the disappearance, overnight, of sovereign debt issues. Perhaps the black hole is so huge that it will suck into the deflation hole anything, including the printing presses. Is Bill now saying that the US are going to ride this one out and not go for the easy option (QE)? Are they at last thinking long term and allowing the market to find its own natural level knowing that, long term, you cannot beat it anyway. Is Bernanke being sidelined by Bill?

What perplexes me most is the Pound. Fundamentals could not be worse yet we are soaring against even the Swissie.

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I will believe it when CPI goes negative as opposed to 50% over the target. Do you remember how wrong Bill Gross was on gilts?

How are your dollar assets doing?

I am 80% in dollars which are doing well vs. the Euro but horribly against Sterling. As $ investments they are doing okay as I am mostly in PIMCO total return fund which is up around 7% YTD. I sold Sterling at around 2.10 and while in profit at 1.58 I am holding on for sub 1.45. Maybe later this year--it ALL depends on HPI. If we get a big crash this year Sterling is toast.

Right now Sterling rules the FOREX--its is everyone's favourite. Why? WTFK.

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Deflation and a bond market rally could last 6 months - could be 5 years. If it's 5 years, the global housing, equity and commodity markets will be devastated. Cash only please.

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Deflation and a bond market rally could last 6 months - could be 5 years. If it's 5 years, the global housing, equity and commodity markets will be devastated. Cash only please.

Slowly moves from blank stare to an excruciating Cheshire cat grin. : )

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Bloomberg
Pimcos Bill Gross Says Bonds Have Seen Best Days (Update2)
March 25, 2010
, 12:39 PM EDT
By Thomas R. Keene and Susanne Walker
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the worlds biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the almost three-decade bond market rally may be drawing to a close.
Excess borrowing in nations including the U.S., U.K. and Japan will eventually lead to inflation as governments sell record amounts of debt to finance surging deficits, Gross said. Pimco, which announced in December that it would offer stock funds for the first time, is advising that investors buy the debt of counties such as Germany and Canada that have low deficits and higher-yielding corporate securities.
Bonds have seen their best days, Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today from Pimcos headquarters in Newport Beach, California. We are focused more in spread space than in yield space. Durations should be shorter than index and you should be taking a little more risk in terms of spreads.

This illustrates how even the best get confused.

I am a little worried though as the apparent shift in tack is based on what appears to be the end of QE and the disappearance, overnight, of sovereign debt issues. Perhaps the black hole is so huge that it will suck into the deflation hole anything, including the printing presses. Is Bill now saying that the US are going to ride this one out and not go for the easy option (QE)? Are they at last thinking long term and allowing the market to find its own natural level knowing that, long term, you cannot beat it anyway. Is Bernanke being sidelined by Bill?

What perplexes me most is the Pound. Fundamentals could not be worse yet we are soaring against even the Swissie.

Bill Gross is a VI remember that. He is one of the biggest buyers of US Treasuries. When he appears on CNBC (and lists the financial interests that he is involved in and is discussing) he ticks every box for "yes" so a large grain of salt is advised. Same with Jim the Bowtie, Faber, Soros and the rest of the chronies still raking it in. Personally I trust none of them a jot.

PS Bit of a swing inpositions from March to now don't you think? We are not exactly talking about eons here.

Edited by tomwatkins

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Slowly moves from blank stare to an excruciating Cheshire cat grin. : )

You just caught my expression in the webcam too did you?

I would be pleased.

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IMO the best medicine for my country is an end to HPI dependence.

It's true. Support strong sterling to prevent foreign speculators. You know it makes sense :P

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Seriously though, what happens if the UK becomes so piddlingly small compared to the mega economies of China and India that we end up with tens of thousands of new millionaries all bagging themselves a nice little holiday home in old blighty?

A reason to buy eventually, before the market turns up again.

Edited by AvidFan

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You just caught my expression in the webcam too did you?

I would be pleased.

So far, the latest article from BIll seems to suggest that will indeed be the scenario.

Looking at it from the broadest possible fundamental view: tens of trillions have been conjured* to pay for a decade or so of HPI and the size of the black hole is beyond any government's ability to repay for decades. If they try to print the global market will penalise the printing country with punitive IR and currency devaluation--no nation can afford this. Who is going to print first? Everyone freezes and lets the market do what IT WANTS TO DO: contract after the binge.

_______________________

*Most of the funding for the bubbles has been created outside the normal channels where the CBs have, through deregulation, relied on creative agencies to do the job for them in the form of alphabet investments (CDOs, ETFs etc.). Those creative forms of financing do not exist but they have nevertheless created enormous financial black holes that are beyond the CBs ability to fill.

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Everyone freezes and lets the market do what IT WANTS TO DO: contract after the binge.

I do think the QE was really about a holding pattern, letting the banks de-lever (Barclays is down from 28:1 to 20:1 and still falling...) and letting the governments prop everything up in the meantime.

The real fun starts late this year and into 2011. US budget is out post Nov elections and it'll confirm the cuts we already know are coming.

Fun times.

Edited by AvidFan

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Seriously though, what happens if the UK becomes so piddlingly small compared to the mega economies of China and India that we end up with tens of thousands of new millionaries all bagging themselves a nice little holiday home in old blighty?

A reason to buy eventually, before the market turns up again.

This has been much on my mind of late. Swansea is full of Chinese students. I suspct some will end up buying here.

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No, Bill works for a European bank.

Front wheeler and very much a prophetic voice. He was dead on in predicting the big HPC and warned about soveriegn debt a year before anyone noticed it might be a problem.

His multi billion $ bond fund has almost outperformed all others. Smart man is Bill. Queer looking moosh too.

The guy has been toasted in the 70's , by govt intervention, this time he rolled with it [ smart ?] but

deflation now [i think] is not money supply phenomenon but the end of Fraudonomics. [ mentioned by astute poster earlier]

The thing that bugs me is the longness, or even the resilience[ thank God] of the mass of economic participants to put food on the table

even though their economy has been hijacked.

This is why Bears bend over to the Bulls .Partying involves mere humans, time calling. Is External.

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I believe he did. Indeed I believe he not just lobbied for one but also bet on one.

Exactly.

Any goldfish here remember his "Sterling sitting on a bed of nitroglycerine" quote and then you find he's changed his mind.

Bill was right about the nitro. In fact, more right than many knew--it turned out that we had not 982BN debt but 4TR. Its just that the market chooses to ignore both the nitrro and the Elephant that is still sitting quietyly in the corner of the living room.

Its about risk--and the markets are no longer averse to it because no one has seen any consequences of the sovereign debt crisis. No jobs lost yet, no important strikes, no stock crash. Just an eerie and euphoric calms where money piles into that which was considered doomed a week ago.

The headless chick on a world economy lives on.

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This has been much on my mind of late. Swansea is full of Chinese students. I suspct some will end up buying here.

Whenever the bottom is... 2012, 2013, 2014 - HPC'ers will need to hold their nose and buy something or forever be locked out of the market once the pickup comes. But that could be even more years away. You just want to be buying when it looks the most bleak.

Edited by AvidFan

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I am 80% in dollars which are doing well vs. the Euro but horribly against Sterling. As $ investments they are doing okay as I am mostly in PIMCO total return fund which is up around 7% YTD. I sold Sterling at around 2.10 and while in profit at 1.58 I am holding on for sub 1.45. Maybe later this year--it ALL depends on HPI. If we get a big crash this year Sterling is toast.

Right now Sterling rules the FOREX--its is everyone's favourite. Why? WTFK.

Because their austerity measures were preemptive and outwardly seem genuinely meaningful

They have played their soiled hand skillfully, who knows maybe our Elite are the

smartest of all?

And we muddle through under" night" cover.

This imho is our strategy is drip drip purgation , get the people to refrain from rising . Will it

work ,probably, for sure Gordon Brown would have run straight into the Intercity.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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