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I am not so sure of "one way bets" any more. If Gold will rise despite any scenario it may be in that "new paradigm" category which is really a bit delusional. IMO, its entirely sentiment driven. You can't eat it or build anything with it and its only value is what the market says it can be swapped for. If the investors are getting bored they will dump it and pile into something else.

That's something else appears to be UK Pounds at the moment. Next week? WTFK.

Bottom line: WTFKWGO.

..And bonds, currency and other bits of paper are intrinsically useful?

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Prices-Stuck-in-Tight-tsmf-2108205958.html;_ylt=ArlSJqdDEBVVebYJvBVyFGy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dWYxNmFpBHBvcwM4BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNnb2xkcHJpY2Vzc3Q-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Gold prices are stuck in a tight trading range, and most analysts anticipate more of the same for the rest of the summer. On the one hand, better-than-expected corporate earnings and economic data are pushing investors to dump gold for stocks. Encouraging signs of a global economic recovery decrease gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

If this is true, gold may be at the pivotal point where the pendulum begins its swing the other way.

IMO, the top was reached when, as in 1980, the frenzy for selling bits of gold tom was at full force with signs in windows advertising "cash for your old Tom" etc.

On the other hand, global recovery may be more wishful thinking than anything else. Can attitude alone wish trillions of debt away. On the basis of today's news, apparently so.

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Not sure what happened to this DVD's release date, but it looks good,

maybe the author got taken out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQmK-aL9zE8

Mike Maloney is the best guy I've heard for getting across the ideas about

why gold investment is a good idea.

The fact is that every time the fiat paper money supply increases, it puts

further upwards pressure on the gold price. Within the past 2 years the US

dollar money supply has doubled pretty much, whereas the gold price has only

gone up by about 10%.

There are approximately 10 trillion dollars in existence, more than half of

which reside outside of the united states. The official gold reserves of the united

states are ~8000 tonnes. If you divide one by the other, you get a price of something

like $40,000 / oz. This is of course assuming these official gold reserve numbers

are correct, if there are no gold reserves you can expect the price of gold

to infinity once doomsday finally arrives.

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Has anyone got a chart of the POG against global debt issuance over the last 10 years?

I think it would be an interesting comparison and would more adequately explain the rise in the price of gold than the more abstract idea of 'a hedge against inflation'

The price of gold, in my view, reflects the 'fraudulent' wealth on the other side of the balance sheet. From one perspective you can see it as a vote of confidence in fiat currencies, but perhaps thats one step removed from the underlying response to over-leveraging in general.

From this perspective the apparent rise in the POG might look rather more conservative than when you view it on its own.

The current drawdown is just part of the volatility in the price. There is no bubble sign yet in gold (OK apart from the gold dispensing machine in Dubai, but I think that has other meanings as well, reflecting a local culture and a desire to launder money). The most bubblicious sign is all the 'Cash for gold' crap.. but even that isn't truly a bubble sign because its buying from the 'bloke in the street' rather than selling to him.

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The only prediction yet to materialise concerns gold. I am leaning slightly bearish on gold because it has failed to go to the moon but has stalled at around $1200. My biggest beef with gold is that, LT, it has proven to be the worst investment of them all, lagging even national savings. I got lucky in 1980 when I sold a horde of Sovs to help buy a house. The year gold peaked at around $860 or so. 30 year on and gold is worth less than it was in 1980 IA. Same amount invested in national savings or a stock index fund and you would have been avenues ahead.

Gold is good for short term punts. Buy low, sell high--its all about market timing. As a LT investment it sucks royally.

The current trend show people are becoming more open to risky investments. We may see a huge surge in stocks and FOREX bets but I see big trouble ahead. I just cannot accept that sovereign debt has vanished overnight without consequences and without massive deflation to lay economies to waste.

Quite right. Gold is a poor long term investment and so it should be.

Every time I hear folk going on about gold as some kind of key investment or 'insurance' I can't help thinking that we are still no better than primitive natives who value something because it is shiny.

I know gold has it's uses and is relatively rare but it is still in the same category as tulip bulbs as far as I'm concerned. If everything really did go into total meltdown and all you were holding was a few ingots of gold you would be in very deep schit.

If all you were holding was a certificate stating that some gold in a far away vault was yours where do think that would place you?

Gold is one of those things that only has perhaps 10% of it's value as a result of it's actual usefulness.

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good day all , 21st august 1971 gold £14.10 an ounce , average uk house price £6,000 so even with the bad 20 years from 1980 to 2000 golds doubled houses .

1971 !! The "long term" didn't start until 1980 I'm afraid. :lol:

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good day all , 21st august 1971 gold £14.10 an ounce , average uk house price £6,000 so even with the bad 20 years from 1980 to 2000 golds doubled houses .

That may be true but a house should not be a good investment either. It should be a home, a place for someone to live. Seeing houses as investment vehicles has contributed to the absurd prices that bought most members to this site in the first place.

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Quite right. Gold is a poor long term investment and so it should be.

Every time I hear folk going on about gold as some kind of key investment or 'insurance' I can't help thinking that we are still no better than primitive natives who value something because it is shiny.

I know gold has it's uses and is relatively rare but it is still in the same category as tulip bulbs as far as I'm concerned. If everything really did go into total meltdown and all you were holding was a few ingots of gold you would be in very deep schit.

If all you were holding was a certificate stating that some gold in a far away vault was yours where do think that would place you?

Gold is one of those things that only has perhaps 10% of it's value as a result of it's actual usefulness.

90% based on what value the market ascribes to it?

Fiat gold.

I do agree on the volatility point. Gold is a vehicle for speculation and it seems that the punters looking for a fast buck are growing tired and moving back into stocks. What is unusual is that bonds are also doing very well. When stocks and bonds do well the risk has gone. And yet openness to risk is what is driving Sterling. :blink:

That said, I do not believe the world economies are anywhere near out of the woods and even though the banks are all past their stress tests the sovereign debt is still there, lying dormant, waiting to rise up again and bit the bulls in the_______s.

To read the Wall Street articles today yo would think that the double dip threatened on Friday is but a distant memory. All news is good and there is no evidence of anything negative. Even the HPC and return to mass repossessions has been buried under a heap of euphoric accolades about how quickly the troubles have passed by--and effortlessly too.

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Many bought the dips after the big stock crash in 1929. It was an ill-advised strategy as it was three decades before stocks regained value.

As a wise man once said: "Not every dip is a buying opportunity. It can mean the beginning of a very long bear market."

Gold has disappointed. A couple of years ago many were saying it will go to the moon. The reality is that it has hit a wall at around $1200 despite some of the most dramatic economic shifts the world has known. The "safe haven" of gold has not materialised.

Deflation talk is spreading (perception = reality) and that has not helped gold gain traction. Money has been piling into bonds as a consequence.

Where next for gold? It depends on the property market. If the US market continues to drop and the last 2 men standing (UK and OZ) join the crash party we could see global deflation and a flight away from inflation hedges. I am still bullish on bonds despite Bill Gross saying he is not.

The gold expert has spoken

His track record is second to none

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Gold seems to be down about 14% in the past 6 weeks or so...£860 to £740. That's gotta hurt the tin hat brigade? They've gone a bit quiet recently (or are they enjoying a beer with the sterling shorters)?

Hardly. It is called volatility. Nothing goes up in a straight line and now is the annual low season in price. Remember that the first time gold every reached the current "low" price in USD was late November 2009. The pound has been extra weak, and half of the drop has been pound strength.

Most of my gold cost me less than £300 per ounce. I'm hardly worried.

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On the other hand, global recovery may be more wishful thinking than anything else. Can attitude alone wish trillions of debt away. On the basis of today's news, apparently so.

I don't think so. Not this time. Otherwise houses would now be £500k on average. Sometimes you hit physical limits. Which way gold is going to go is something I spend a lot of time thinking about. My feeling is that there will be another bout of QE in the next year or two. "They" cannot just will away energy, debt and demographic problems and pure deflation (as opposed to stagflation) will not be tolerated. I suspect gold still has some legs. There will be ups and downs, but there are further highs to come.

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Every time I hear folk going on about gold as some kind of key investment or 'insurance' I can't help thinking that we are still no better than primitive natives who value something because it is shiny.

You are close to understanding the mass psychology of humans...which is what investing is all about.

Gold is one of those things that only has perhaps 10% of it's value as a result of it's actual usefulness.

I know this has been said a million times before, but a £50 note only has perhaps 0.001% of its value as a result of its actual usefulness.

Just a thought.

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The pound has been extra weak, and half of the drop has been pound strength.

Indeed. The dollar price has been remarkably stable trading in a range between 1160-1260 for about 4 months now. Hardly the stuff of nightmares.

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Gold seems to be down about 14% in the past 6 weeks or so...£860 to £740. That's gotta hurt the tin hat brigade?

This seems to be creeping in everywhere (tin hat instead of tin-foil hat).

tin-hat.jpg

Tin Hat

why-cats-hate-their-owners.jpg

Tin-foil hat

I'm not really a hat person TBH, can't quite carry them off.

Movable hedge:

Yes, but how liquid is it?

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The gold expert has spoken

His track record is second to none

This entire thread is like being in "Groundhog Day". I know I've lived it over and over again over the past 5 years.

And there's no Andie MacDowell to get me out of it.

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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