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Sterling Bears


davidcameron
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There's support at 1GBP = 1.25EUR.

And there's a trend that says 1 EUR = 1.4USD at some point.

Let's get there first.

It's going to cross through 1.625 and may have a rest or may go all the way to $1.75 before pausing.

Who knows?

life is very transient just now as no one knows how deep this problem is ( we on this site know as we predicted this ) Long term we are in for a big storm , have faith. RB looks long term , look at his posts always about fundamentals.

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Look at the fundamentals - We have an economy made of straw ! We will collapse along with the pound look at history , I was around when 1$ =! Pound it will happen just keep the faith. Look around at our situation and what do you see pound shops and coffee shops ! nothing of value.

You dont really need to convert me, and im rather hoping it doesnt happen for the sake of the UK economy

I initially had it mapped out as so

http://i415.photobucket.com/albums/pp238/lempicka/gbp.jpg

i now have my doubts as to its ability to even go above 1.65 because the declines since November were impulsive rather than correctional but either way as i said i dont expect it to go above 1.90

and whether it turns around now or at 1.90 i then expect it to do what its been building up to do for 30 years and find the bottom of its orange channel at 70 cents to the pound, as i previously alluded to for me 1.30 is the pivotal value, once it goes through that its technically fcked

GBPx.JPG

post-19823-12807664433235_thumb.jpg

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You dont really need to convert me, and im rather hoping it doesnt happen for the sake of the UK economy

I initially had it mapped out as so

http://i415.photobucket.com/albums/pp238/lempicka/gbp.jpg

i now have my doubts as to its ability to even go above 1.65 because the declines since November were impulsive rather than correctional but either way as i said i dont expect it to go above 1.90

and whether it turns around now or at 1.90 i then expect it to do what its been building up to do for 30 years and find the bottom of its orange channel at 70 cents to the pound, as i previously alluded to for me 1.30 is the pivotal value, once it goes through that its technically fcked

There's absolutely no way it's going to 70c. If it does, it'll be the bigget USDX spike in history and the Euro will also be even cheaper than the 80-something cents it managed when it was born.

You should really see the much much bigger picture - the collapse of the American empire. That trumps GBP price movement on UK opinion and speculation. We're a much, much leaner economy than we were before. £1 = $1 was our "bottom". Please, please don't put money on the 70c scenario! When I read that, I thought you meant £0.7 = 1$, i.e. $1.42 to the pound. I can't see it going below that.

Edited by AvidFan
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There's absolutely no way it's going to 70c. If it does, it'll be the bigget USDX spike in history and the Euro will also be even cheaper than the 80-something cents it managed when it was born.

You should really see the much much bigger picture - the collapse of the American empire. That trumps GBP price movement on UK opinion and speculation. We're a much, much leaner economy than we were before. £1 = $1 was our "bottom". Please, please don't put money on the 70c scenario! When I read that, I thought you meant £0.7 = 1$, i.e. $1.42 to the pound. I can't see it going below that.

I dont know what will happen, its just a forecast, it will go where it goes, and like i say the 70cents scenario only opens up as likely for me if it goes through 1.30 on heavy volume. PS iagree that the US is just as fcked as the UK but fundamentally an economic crash wont stop a flight to the dollar as in 2008, it is still the reserve currency , for now.

Im a strong believer in the west being in the middle of an unprecedented collapse, bigger than the 30s, there are going to be some extraordinary moves on everything if thats the case, hopefully its wrong

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

I think you're missing the point David. If you're a sterling bear you should be celebrating this bounce as mana from heaven. 1.55 was a target, now our sights look higher. Then I'll be shifting a fair whack to USD.

I just hope you didn't panic at the lows in May...

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I dont know what will happen, its just a forecast, it will go where it goes, and like i say the 70cents scenario only opens up as likely for me if it goes through 1.30 on heavy volume. PS iagree that the US is just as fcked as the UK but fundamentally an economic crash wont stop a flight to the dollar as in 2008, it is still the reserve currency , for now.

Im a strong believer in the west being in the middle of an unprecedented collapse, bigger than the 30s, there are going to be some extraordinary moves on everything if thats the case, hopefully its wrong

But it's a Euro/Dollar battle for the next decade. Not a West/East battle. They're not ready yet.

Give it 10 years, a depression, a revolution and an installed democracy in China and the Renminbi might be convertible...

Edited by AvidFan
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i now have my doubts as to its ability to even go above 1.65 because the declines since November were impulsive rather than correctional but either way as i said i dont expect it to go above 1.90 and whether it turns around now or at 1.90 i then expect it to do what its been building up to do for 30 years and find the bottom of its orange channel at 70 cents to the pound, as i previously alluded to for me 1.30 is the pivotal value, once it goes through that its technically fcked

Very interesting viewpoint. Fundamentally I see no reason why £1 should buy more than $1, especially when you look at the buying power of one unit of currency in either country. I think we have been very lucky with Sterling so far as £1 still buys more than one unit of any other currency out there, but I see no reason why it should, we have no miracle economy here in the UK to grant us any edge over anyone, neither have we an abundance of natural resources to offer the world. To be frank I'm not sure what we do have any more. House flipping seems to have been 'the economy' for the last 10+ years while manufacturing has been systematically destroyed.

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Very interesting viewpoint. Fundamentally I see no reason why £1 should buy more than $1, especially when you look at the buying power of one unit of currency in either country. I think we have been very lucky with Sterling so far as £1 still buys more than one unit of any other currency out there, but I see no reason why it should, we have no miracle economy here in the UK to grant us any edge over anyone, neither have we an abundance of natural resources to offer the world. To be frank I'm not sure what we do have any more. House flipping seems to have been 'the economy' for the last 10+ years while manufacturing has been systematically destroyed.

That's the point. There is no global economy anymore. Not to the same extent that is existed before the crunch. We had the least to lose...

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But it's a Euro/Dollar battle for the next decade. Not a West/East battle. They're not ready yet.

Give it 10 years, a depression, a revolution and an installed democracy in China and the Renminbi might be convertable...

Maybe, and the Euro might win long term, i think it has better fundamentals if they drop the PIIGS, and when i say the west is fooked, so is the East, Japan look to be more fcked than the UK if thats possible and i expect China will blow up, but i still think there will be a flight to the dollar if things blow up, however temporary that flight may be and it will have to be very temporary because they will inevitably print whereas i have trouble seeing the Euro region printing to absolute calamity whilst Germany are in charge

Alternaatively the European union could completely fracture if the bear market is bad enough, just as its developed in the bull market. Its all very interesting stuff even if its not so great to have to live and make financial decisions through it

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

I must admit that I have been surprised by this remarkable rally in Sterling from a high of 2.13 3 years or so ago to a low point of 1.37 and now strorming ahead at 1.58 and likely to break 1.60 this week.

What is powering Sterling?

Is it our 4-5TRillion government debt?

Is it our reliance on HPI to keep the banks going?

Is it our ever widening trade deficit?

Perhaps its something to do with our rising unemployment now at a record since 1997?

Is it more to do with the fact that the EU and the US are in trouble? I think that is your answer. But for those that look a little further ahead: if our 2 biggest trading partners are in trouble could that be behind our widening trade deficit that needs a higher Pound like a hole in the head?

Bottom line: make hay while the sun shines, Sterling is doomed to drop hard later this year. Its HPI driven and the government cuts, higher unemployment and ever increasing deficit will take us down hard.

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Bottom line: make hay while the sun shines, Sterling is doomed to drop hard later this year. Its HPI driven and the government cuts, higher unemployment and ever increasing deficit will take us down hard.

I see the "drop" being closer to the seasonal lows in March/April 2011, either side of the new tax year when sell-offs will net you gains in two years of CGT allowance. Twas ever thus. It'll be on expectation of the "cuts".

Up until then - a gentle glide up to dizzying heights, and a gentle glide all the way back down again.

Enjoy.

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I must admit that I have been surprised by this remarkable rally in Sterling from a high of 2.13 3 years or so ago to a low point of 1.37 and now strorming ahead at 1.58 and likely to break 1.60 this week.

What is powering Sterling?

Is it our 4-5TRillion government debt?

Is it our reliance on HPI to keep the banks going?

Is it our ever widening trade deficit?

Perhaps its something to do with our rising unemployment now at a record since 1997?

Is it more to do with the fact that the EU and the US are in trouble? I think that is your answer. But for those that look a little further ahead: if our 2 biggest trading partners are in trouble could that be behind our widening trade deficit that needs a higher Pound like a hole in the head?

Bottom line: make hay while the sun shines, Sterling is doomed to drop hard later this year. Its HPI driven and the government cuts, higher unemployment and ever increasing deficit will take us down hard.

I was wondering when you would show up in this thread and offer some realism ;)

What sort of top do you have in mind RB for this current rally? I'm thinking at most 1.70 if we are extremely lucky.

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That's the point. There is no global economy anymore. Not to the same extent that is existed before the crunch. We had the least to lose...

A lot of pot smoking around the campfire going on here. Rubbish talk about sterling going to over 2 against the dollar and 1.5 versus the euro.

Sterling is appreciating for no fundamental reason. It is rising because the crooks soros and rogers want to fleece all the sterling shorts they herded into their positions early on 2010. This is how they make their money. They control, together with their partners, vast resources that can move fx markets in the direction they so choose. Chomsky spoke about the fx markets and how they are manipulated. That is why the crooks keep on at china to remove their peg - with a peg in place it makes currency manipulation impossible for those crosses.

So, sterling. If the rally continues they have two options: raise rates or trash talk to pound. My money is on bad data coming out of the UK followed up with trash talk from Mervyn et al.

Those predicting sterling to go over two dollars are smoking weed. If that were the case then all exports would cease immediately (together with tourism) and the UK would not be back on depression course it will be back on ice age course.

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Those predicting sterling to go over two dollars are smoking weed. If that were the case then all exports would cease immediately (together with tourism) and the UK would not be back on depression course it will be back on ice age course.

I'm not suggesting it'll stay there. And if it does, then yes, exports will bring it all the way back down again.

It could literlly last weeks, not even months. That's all I'm saying. I'm not asking anyone to believe we can maintain that exchange rate as an economy. Not yet anyway.

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I was wondering when you would show up in this thread and offer some realism ;)

What sort of top do you have in mind RB for this current rally? I'm thinking at most 1.70 if we are extremely lucky.

Mid 1.60s. The traders are not so stupid as to ignore the Elephant which will come charging out as soon as HPI reverses in a meaningful way. We cannot ignore 4-5TR of debt and the austerity plans will not kick in until the 3rd Q. Unemployment is growing and there is simply no way we can escape the consequences of the Brown era. If Haliwide come out with some back-to-back big drops Sterling is toast.

IN the meantime the US have cancelled (again) the double dip with the highest level of market euphoria since the week before the Dot.com bust when every piece of bad news was a buy signal:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-02/stocks-u-s-futures-climb-on-improved-earnings-franc-weakens-bonds-drop.html

Stocks Climb as Earnings Top Estimates; Treasuries, Dollar Fall
By Kelly "Threepenny" Bit and David "Dave" Merritt - Aug 2, 2010 5:29 PM GMT
Stocks also gained as
U.S. manufacturing grew faster than estimated
and construction spending increased. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Stocks rallied, sending the MSCI World Index to an 11-week high, oil surged above $81 a barrel and Treasuries fell following better-than-estimated earnings and growth in U.S. manufacturing and construction spending.
The MSCI gauge of 24 developed nations jumped 2.3 percent to its
highest level since May 13
and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.9 percent to 1,122.49 at 12:26 p.m. in New York, adding to gains from its
best month in a year
. Copper rose to the highest price since April. The dollar weakened against all 16 major counterparts, with the pound climbing above $1.58 for the first time in six months. The 10-year Treasury note fell, sending its yield up 3 basis points to 2.94 percent.

ON the face of it, the US are doing verrrry well. But the dollar is going into reverse. I suspect that the US may be selling dollars to keep the competitive edge. Pursuing a Paulson-style "strong dollar policy" which means the opposite.

Deflation is becoming entrenched in the US and the FOREX may be counting on some printing in the medium term. But then again, what about the EU and the UK?

IN the meantime, gold is lacklustre. Has sentiment shifted--if so where is the money going? US treasuries are doing well, my PIMCO bond fund is steaming and will soon be up 7% YTD.

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Very interesting viewpoint. Fundamentally I see no reason why £1 should buy more than $1, especially when you look at the buying power of one unit of currency in either country. I think we have been very lucky with Sterling so far as £1 still buys more than one unit of any other currency out there, but I see no reason why it should, we have no miracle economy here in the UK to grant us any edge over anyone, neither have we an abundance of natural resources to offer the world. To be frank I'm not sure what we do have any more. House flipping seems to have been 'the economy' for the last 10+ years while manufacturing has been systematically destroyed.

Er...we're the sixth largest manufacturer in the world. Too many here seem to forget that.

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Er...we're the sixth largest manufacturer in the world. Too many here seem to forget that.

Means nothing. The top three producers dwarf everyone else.

The UK as a manufacturer is finished. It is now cheaper to employer two china-men per day than it is to park at southend on sea.

The UK policy is inflation, which is done by net positive immigration. That is why in their "not so emergency" emergency budget did not address benefits for welfare collectors like breeding tramp stamps and the like.

They need to keep up the illusion that UK is the benefit capital of the world to keep the suckers coming over driving up prices for all.

The official line is: "the UK are tolerant of immigrants". or plain and simple suckers.

Edited by Mr. Spin esq.
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Here we go--double dip cancelled = Sterling buy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-02/yen-dollar-drop-as-signs-of-global-recovery-buoy-risk-demand.html

Yen, Dollar Drop as Signs of Global Recovery Buoy Risk Demand
By Catarina "Cat" Saraiva and Paul "Paulie" Dobson - Aug 2, 2010 4:45 PM GMT
The yen and dollar fell against most of their major counterparts as signs the global recovery is gaining momentum damped demand for assets perceived to have the lowest risk.
The euro strengthened to a three-month high versus the dollar as a report showed U.S. manufacturing expanded for a 12th straight month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said
rising wages will probably spur household spending in the next few quarters.
Japan’s currency dropped for the first time in four days against the euro as stocks rose.
“People are more willing to put money to work in a riskier environment and have been moving away from the traditional safety of the dollar and the Japanese yen,” said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Good news for US = bad news for $

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Means nothing. The top three producers dwarf everyone else.

The UK as a manufacturer is finished. It is now cheaper to employer two china-men per day than it is to park at southend on sea.

The UK policy is inflation, which is done by net positive immigration. That is why in their "not so emergency" emergency budget benis for welfare collectors like breeding tramp stamps and the like were not mentioned.

They need to keep up the illusion that UK is the benefit capital of the world to keep the suckers coming over driving up prices for all.

It is a depressing fact, but what you observe about sums it up.

UK Plc is dependent on HPI and that which fuels it (immigration, subsidised IR, unrestrained lending, greed).

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Here we go--double dip cancelled = Sterling buy:

Good news for US = bad news for $

Yeees. Because good news for US = mini credit cycle = US$ proliferation and dilution, speculation into other currencies, markets, etc.

This has been how it's gone for decades. US peak business / credit cycle = peak GBP:USD exchange rate.

Any "mini" version of that will cause the same thing to happen.

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