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davidcameron

Sterling Bears

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

They are not nursing their losses as they are Times/Telegraph/Sun traders. That they could not see that ConLib was attempting to sort the mess out and that the markets would like is deafening.

However, note when stock markets plummet this Summer/Autumn $ will go to the moon v everything else. May not go as high as 1.3 v £ as that would be retest of £ low which I suspect will fail.

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

I'm still here but I had to move fast a while ago to make sure I was ahead of the curve. Now I'm curious as to what the nation is going to do with its new found stronger currency. I'd also like to know what we are backing said currency with, manufacturing exports, gold, crude oil, natural resources, house flipping, financial juggling, or simply hopes and dreams that we are not going to follow America back into recession?

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If Labour had got back in we would have been staring currency collapse in the face by now. As it is, the markets see sterling as one of the least worst options to invest in ATM. Many factors at play - after the way Obama went for BP companies are going to be chary about doing business in the US. There's a head of steam building up for the BoE to raise IRs. But it's all good for sterling. Enjoy (while it lasts).

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Its a race to the bottom................America has just pulled out a lead.

The $ is falling as the FED readies for "QE2".............then in Oct it will be our turn.

Mike

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

Well the Sterling bear thing was only ever good up to the General Election/emergency budget. And it'll come back again next year when GDP dips (probably). Things don't move in staright lines.

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I have half of my savings in EUR. I'm not sure what will happen and doubt that anyone really does, so having my money 50%EUR/50%GBP, the two currencies I use to live on, gives me some peace of mind.

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I've made about 12% by getting out of the Euro and into Sterling at the right moment but I'm not feeling cocky just lucky. If you ask me currency movements are almost impossible to predict.

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

Theyll wait till its fallen 20% to say its doomed just before it is about to have another major rally ,

i would add i guess i would be considered a major sterling bear and have been since the crisis hit in 07, not sure against the Euro but im confident it will got to about 0.7 USD = 1 GBP within the next 4 years and i dont expect it to go back above 1.90 in any rally before then but who knows

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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I'm still here but I had to move fast a while ago to make sure I was ahead of the curve. Now I'm curious as to what the nation is going to do with its new found stronger currency. I'd also like to know what we are backing said currency with, manufacturing exports, gold, crude oil, natural resources, house flipping, financial juggling, or simply hopes and dreams that we are not going to follow America back into recession?

I think you're buying into the myth here that markets have anything to do with fundamentals.

If the last two or three years have told us anything, it's that they don't.

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With the ConLibs in power Mervyn King has lost all credibility in his attempts to devalue the pound every time it creeps up. With Brown in charge all King had to do was say the word QE and the pound would take a welcome nosedive. Now the bloody Tories are threatening to run the economy properly we've got no chance of rebalancing. That's the problem with holding huge debts in a globalised economy: if everybody else is destroying their currency then you've got to follow suit.

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They are not nursing their losses as they are Times/Telegraph/Sun traders. That they could not see that ConLib was attempting to sort the mess out and that the markets would like is deafening.

However, note when stock markets plummet this Summer/Autumn $ will go to the moon v everything else. May not go as high as 1.3 v £ as that would be retest of £ low which I suspect will fail.

I keep seeing people predicting this on here.

What is a plummet?

Taking out recent lows? Back to last summers lows? Back to March 09 lows?

With interest rates low i can't see the FTSE taking out 4500 this year.

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Now the bloody Tories are threatening to run the economy properly we've got no chance of rebalancing.

the reason for the rise in sterling is an increase in risk tolerance in general. When that goes away, sterling will float downwards again.

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Theyll wait till its fallen 20% to say its doomed just before it is about to have another major rally ,

i would add i guess i would be considered a major sterling bear and have been since the crisis hit in 07, not sure against the Euro but im confident it will got to about 0.7 USD = 1 GBP within the next 4 years and i dont expect it to go back above 1.90 in any rally before then but who knows

agreed, i dont expect us to break $1.70 again this year.

mindblank, who was the shill that recently predicted $1.37 just before sterling bounced? Ah, Soros, I will short when he talks about sterling being good.

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

Perhaps the market is expecting a BoE rate rise just around the corner ?

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Sterling dropped because of fears a coalition would not address the deficit and because we were in recession and because of safe havens dollar strength. All that has gone away. But it will dip again if (when, in my opinion) all that comes back.

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Any word from the sterling bears on this site? Have they gone into hibernation early to nurse their losses? I thought $1.30 and euro parity was a certainty? Do you mean I cannot make investment decisions based on what I read here? Why didn't anyone tell me? :angry:

$1.5867

€1.2109

I remember quite well, even in the depths of the panic, several HPC members strongly advising people not to sell Sterling and not to engage in any kind of currency trading full stop.

So anyway how about a share of some of these fantastic Bank Profits we're expecting this week as we took the risk now we should get a big part of the reward? :angry:

Seriously though, who thinks that the increase in profits of UK Banks means they are more likely to lend out more mortgages? Will it increase credit (and help stabilise House Prices)?

Hope not.

Edited by pl1

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Theyll wait till its fallen 20% to say its doomed just before it is about to have another major rally ,

i would add i guess i would be considered a major sterling bear and have been since the crisis hit in 07, not sure against the Euro but im confident it will got to about 0.7 USD = 1 GBP within the next 4 years and i dont expect it to go back above 1.90 in any rally before then but who knows

Pretty much spot on. The rally *should* be contained in the $1.80-$1.90 region, but I can see a spike to 1.4 euro/dollar and a similar spike to 1.5 gbp/euro. If these happen at just the right time, we could be back to 1 GBP = $2.11 - but it wouldn't last long.

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US economic policy seems to be all over the place at the moment. I can see sterling rallying significantly for the next two years as the US loosens monetary policy further and the printing presses are cranked up. Until they have a major policy shift things will only get worse for the dollar. $1.70 is more than possible and we could see $2+ I think.

Things will improve after 2012 if a new president comes in and changes policy.

The € zone at least have sensible monetary policy. The whole of southern Europe seems to be insolvent and stuck in a debt trap unfortunately. Default is inevitable for at least one country and Spain could easily bring the whole system down if they can't find a way to grow in the current straight jacket.

We look in reasonable shape comparatively. I think interest rates will rise at least once before the end of the year as well.

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US economic policy seems to be all over the place at the moment. I can see sterling rallying significantly for the next two years as the US loosens monetary policy further and the printing presses are cranked up. Until they have a major policy shift things will only get worse for the dollar. $1.70 is more than possible and we could see $2+ I think.

Things will improve after 2012 if a new president comes in and changes policy.

The € zone at least have sensible monetary policy. The whole of southern Europe seems to be insolvent and stuck in a debt trap unfortunately. Default is inevitable for at least one country and Spain could easily bring the whole system down if they can't find a way to grow in the current straight jacket.

We look in reasonable shape comparatively. I think interest rates will rise at least once before the end of the year as well.

The dollar will get stronger in the trough - when they start draining liquidity. Everything will collapse against the dollar. But I don't see that process starting in earnest until 2011 sometime.

Everything will bottom as the next round of fun starts - peak oil. Then the dollar is toast.

Edited by AvidFan

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Theyll wait till its fallen 20% to say its doomed just before it is about to have another major rally ,

i would add i guess i would be considered a major sterling bear and have been since the crisis hit in 07, not sure against the Euro but im confident it will got to about 0.7 USD = 1 GBP within the next 4 years and i dont expect it to go back above 1.90 in any rally before then but who knows

Look at the fundamentals - We have an economy made of straw ! We will collapse along with the pound look at history , I was around when 1$ =! Pound it will happen just keep the faith. Look around at our situation and what do you see pound shops and coffee shops ! nothing of value.

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Guest Noodle

Look at the fundamentals - We have an economy made of straw ! We will collapse along with the pound look at history , I was around when 1$ =! Pound it will happen just keep the faith. Look around at our situation and what do you see pound shops and coffee shops ! nothing of value.

It is charging north way too fast.

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  • 200 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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