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wish I could afford one

House Price Affordability Continues To Decline

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It really is a sad state of affairs. I've just been looking at YTD figures (Jan 10 to May 10) and comparing earnings, inflation and house prices. May 10 is the last release for earnings unfortunately so the furthest into this year I can go. Over that period the RPI rose by 2.6%. Average earnings including bonuses rose by 1% so a pay cut for the average worker in real terms. House prices according to the Nationwide up 3.5%. So affordability on House Price to Earnings ratio worsens.

Now we've just seen a month on month Nationwide fall of -0.5%. Unfortunately though earnings are also falling pretty rapidly. April to May 10 earnings fell by -0.3%. So either house price falls have to accelerate or it's going to be a very long time before houses even approach any form of affordability.

Full analysis and thoughts here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/07/where-is-summer-rush-uk-property-market.html

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It really is a sad state of affairs. I've just been looking at YTD figures (Jan 10 to May 10) and comparing earnings, inflation and house prices. May 10 is the last release for earnings unfortunately so the furthest into this year I can go. Over that period the RPI rose by 2.6%. Average earnings including bonuses rose by 1% so a pay cut for the average worker in real terms. House prices according to the Nationwide up 3.5%. So affordability on House Price to Earnings ratio worsens.

Now we've just seen a month on month Nationwide fall of -0.5%. Unfortunately though earnings are also falling pretty rapidly. April to May 10 earnings fell by -0.3%. So either house price falls have to accelerate or it's going to be a very long time before houses even approach any form of affordability.

Full analysis and thoughts here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/07/where-is-summer-rush-uk-property-market.html

Thanks for that - a really good article and a very useful website. I suppose we also have to make an allowance for the strength of optimism in the current bubble (foreign buyers and the surge of amateur property speculators) which has created huge inertia in the turn - (IMO) but we are definitely on the turn.

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Thanks for that - a really good article and a very useful website. I suppose we also have to make an allowance for the strength of optimism in the current bubble (foreign buyers and the surge of amateur property speculators) which has created huge inertia in the turn - (IMO) but we are definitely on the turn.

It's all on the turn, I agree. Just wait another 6 months and look at these figures again. Might tella nother story by then. I am sure we will see significant falls and then a very flat market for some years through the period of cuts and hopefully an enforcement of sensible lending criteria will keep it tame thereafter.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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