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Halifax July Hpi Predictions

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Forex predicts -0.4%. I personally expect the fall to be greater than this and it would be great to see a fall of 1% or greater.

If we can get a fall of -1% it will hit the mainstream news and hopefully cause panic and therefore create some momentum and allow me to buy my 6 bedroom mansion for 150k :lol:

Thoughts/predictions?

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Forex predicts -0.4%. I personally expect the fall to be greater than this and it would be great to see a fall of 1% or greater.

If we can get a fall of -1% it will hit the mainstream news and hopefully cause panic and therefore create some momentum and allow me to buy my 6 bedroom mansion for 150k :lol:

Thoughts/predictions?

I agree that if we reach south of -1% the panic will set in and i hope we see this over the coming months.

The run-up to the emergency budget saw a steady rise in BTL houses entering the market over fears of higher CGT. Whilst these houses have since been withdrawn, all it will take to throw it back again is public acceptance that it's not viable to hold 2nd properties when the only profit would be from HPI. The run up to the budget showed just how much of an impact BTL-exits could have.

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Well Forex had it about right when Nationwide gave their figures.

However as I remember it there is a discrepancy between Nationwide and Halifax figures currently.

Previously on the way down their figures would play catch up month to month and so they would more or less paint the same picture over a couple of months.

Currently Halifax are showing more of a drop going on ( if my memory has it right )

So if their figures are to fall in line with Nwide's then they might not show much of a drop for July.

The other possibility is Nwide are manipulating the data for their own purposes.

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IIRC Halifax is yet to go negative, at least not over the last year or so.

If we see a -1% Sterling will get hit. At the moment sterling is riding high on doubts over Europe and the US double-dip (as if we were immune to global slowdowns--especially our 2nd largest export market).

As Halifax have been the most buoyant and optimistic about house prices we may, at best, get a -0.1%. Nationwide may well push -1% next month.

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Forex predicts -0.4%. I personally expect the fall to be greater than this and it would be great to see a fall of 1% or greater.

If we can get a fall of -1% it will hit the mainstream news (BBC excluded) and hopefully cause panic and therefore create some momentum and allow me to buy my 6 bedroom mansion for 150k laugh.gif

Thoughts/predictions?

Corrected for you.

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IIRC Halifax is yet to go negative, at least not over the last year or so.

If we see a -1% Sterling will get hit. At the moment sterling is riding high on doubts over Europe and the US double-dip (as if we were immune to global slowdowns--especially our 2nd largest export market).

As Halifax have been the most buoyant and optimistic about house prices we may, at best, get a -0.1%. Nationwide may well push -1% next month.

Halifax has been negative for 3 months.

April -0.1%

May -0.4%

June -0.6%

(iirc)

Halifax is always more pessimistic than nationwide normally by about 6 points lower lately on that basis my predictions for halifax would be -1%

Edited by Pent Up

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Halifax has been negative for 3 months.

April -0.1%

May -0.4%

June -0.6%

(iirc)

Halifax is always more pessimistic than nationwide normally by about 6 points lower lately on that basis my predictions for halifax would be -1%

Well, you could have knocked me down with a feather! I thought the two biggies were divergent.

The LR are probably still reporting the slightly hotter early Spring data given the lag.

Could see our first whole percentage drop this coming month (August): i.e. more than 1% down. I like to annualise these kinds of figures and factor in the trajectory based on the increasing drops each month. -20% could be on the cards by Crimbo if it picks up.

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Well, you could have knocked me down with a feather! I thought the two biggies were divergent.

The LR are probably still reporting the slightly hotter early Spring data given the lag.

Could see our first whole percentage drop this coming month (August): i.e. more than 1% down. I like to annualise these kinds of figures and factor in the trajectory based on the increasing drops each month. -20% could be on the cards by Crimbo if it picks up.

Well if you take the difference between nationwide and Halifax for June and use it for July it gives Halifax for July as -1.3%! I'm being conservative with a -1% prediction.

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IIRC Halifax is yet to go negative, at least not over the last year or so.

If we see a -1% Sterling will get hit. At the moment sterling is riding high on doubts over Europe and the US double-dip (as if we were immune to global slowdowns--especially our 2nd largest export market).

As Halifax have been the most buoyant and optimistic about house prices we may, at best, get a -0.1%. Nationwide may well push -1% next month.

When are the Halifax figs released? If sterling gets hit, I need to buy my euros for hols before the figs are out!!!

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When are the Halifax figs released? If sterling gets hit, I need to buy my euros for hols before the figs are out!!!

I doubt it will have that much of an impact on sterling to be honest. It's out next week, normally around Thursday but they don't give a specific date.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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