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Errol

Food Inflation 'could Go Beyond 10Pc Before Next Year'

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The price of milk, cheese, chicken, beef and pork and associated products are all expected to rise because the industry has been hit by soaring animal feed prices, a shortage of silage and poor harvests. Food inflation is closely linked to overall inflation and some in the industry have warned it could push the economy towards a "double-dip" recession.

BOCM Pauls, Britain's biggest animal feed supplier, has reported a 20 per cent increase in the price of raw material feed on last year. The cost of wheat used as animal feed has also jumped by 30 per cent. The company warned that the price at which it sells feed to dairy, poultry, beef and pig farmers would have to increase by the same amount over the next three months, trade magazine The Grocer said.

It is possible that such a margin could be passed on to consumers, however, it is unlikely to be passed on in full. Instead, prices are likely to go up while producers' and retailers' profit margins are also squeezed.

The National Farmers' Union said the dry weather had added to its members' problems by slashing the yields of silage for winter feed by up to 50 per cent. Food producers are already suffering from the high cost of common ingredients such as palm oil, cocoa and soya oil, which have risen by 39 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively since last year, according to Mintec figures.

Farmers and food producers can use supplies from abroad to alleviate domestic problems, however, traditional sources such as Russia are suffering similar concerns. A drought affecting a third of Russia's crop zone is expected to halve exports, raising fears of a Russian export ban which would have a significant impact on UK food inflation.

Tom Vosa, chief economist for the Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banks, told The Grocer: "We expect to see an acceleration of food prices and a return to double-digit increases by early next year if the situation doesn't change."

Will Hayllar, a partner at financial analysts OC&C, said British consumers could expect a lag time of around six months before they saw the full impact on retail prices.

Peter Bradnock, the chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said his industry was "not in a position to absorb these increases".

Chris Etherington, chief executive of wholesaler P&H, said: "I think this could be the beginning of the double-dip recession. This is really scary stuff."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/7919406/Food-inflation-could-go-beyond-10pc-before-next-year.html

I find it encouraging that there are so many clear signs of deflation around. I look forward to all the cheaper prices for food and other things that people actually need to survive in the future.

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I find it encouraging that there are so many clear signs of deflation around. I look forward to all the cheaper prices for food and other things that people actually need to survive in the future.

High food prices are an inevitable accompaniment to deflation.

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High food prices are an inevitable accompaniment to deflation.

And a 30% reduction in the exchange rate

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The price of milk, cheese, chicken, beef and pork and associated products are all expected to rise because the industry has been hit by soaring animal feed prices, a shortage of silage and poor harvests. Food inflation is closely linked to overall inflation and some in the industry have warned it could push the economy towards a "double-dip" recession.

BOCM Pauls, Britain's biggest animal feed supplier, has reported a 20 per cent increase in the price of raw material feed on last year. The cost of wheat used as animal feed has also jumped by 30 per cent. The company warned that the price at which it sells feed to dairy, poultry, beef and pig farmers would have to increase by the same amount over the next three months, trade magazine The Grocer said.

It is possible that such a margin could be passed on to consumers, however, it is unlikely to be passed on in full. Instead, prices are likely to go up while producers' and retailers' profit margins are also squeezed.

The National Farmers' Union said the dry weather had added to its members' problems by slashing the yields of silage for winter feed by up to 50 per cent. Food producers are already suffering from the high cost of common ingredients such as palm oil, cocoa and soya oil, which have risen by 39 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively since last year, according to Mintec figures.

Farmers and food producers can use supplies from abroad to alleviate domestic problems, however, traditional sources such as Russia are suffering similar concerns. A drought affecting a third of Russia's crop zone is expected to halve exports, raising fears of a Russian export ban which would have a significant impact on UK food inflation.

Tom Vosa, chief economist for the Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banks, told The Grocer: "We expect to see an acceleration of food prices and a return to double-digit increases by early next year if the situation doesn't change."

Will Hayllar, a partner at financial analysts OC&C, said British consumers could expect a lag time of around six months before they saw the full impact on retail prices.

Peter Bradnock, the chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said his industry was "not in a position to absorb these increases".

Chris Etherington, chief executive of wholesaler P&H, said: "I think this could be the beginning of the double-dip recession. This is really scary stuff."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/7919406/Food-inflation-could-go-beyond-10pc-before-next-year.html

I find it encouraging that there are so many clear signs of deflation around. I look forward to all the cheaper prices for food and other things that people actually need to survive in the future.

i shall be visiting Blighty in a couple of weeks, shall i bring a wheelbarrow just in case?

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The price of milk, cheese, chicken, beef and pork and associated products are all expected to rise because the industry has been hit by soaring animal feed prices, a shortage of silage and poor harvests. Food inflation is closely linked to overall inflation and some in the industry have warned it could push the economy towards a "double-dip" recession.

BOCM Pauls, Britain's biggest animal feed supplier, has reported a 20 per cent increase in the price of raw material feed on last year. The cost of wheat used as animal feed has also jumped by 30 per cent. The company warned that the price at which it sells feed to dairy, poultry, beef and pig farmers would have to increase by the same amount over the next three months, trade magazine The Grocer said.

It is possible that such a margin could be passed on to consumers, however, it is unlikely to be passed on in full. Instead, prices are likely to go up while producers' and retailers' profit margins are also squeezed.

The National Farmers' Union said the dry weather had added to its members' problems by slashing the yields of silage for winter feed by up to 50 per cent. Food producers are already suffering from the high cost of common ingredients such as palm oil, cocoa and soya oil, which have risen by 39 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively since last year, according to Mintec figures.

Farmers and food producers can use supplies from abroad to alleviate domestic problems, however, traditional sources such as Russia are suffering similar concerns. A drought affecting a third of Russia's crop zone is expected to halve exports, raising fears of a Russian export ban which would have a significant impact on UK food inflation.

Tom Vosa, chief economist for the Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banks, told The Grocer: "We expect to see an acceleration of food prices and a return to double-digit increases by early next year if the situation doesn't change."

Will Hayllar, a partner at financial analysts OC&C, said British consumers could expect a lag time of around six months before they saw the full impact on retail prices.

Peter Bradnock, the chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said his industry was "not in a position to absorb these increases".

Chris Etherington, chief executive of wholesaler P&H, said: "I think this could be the beginning of the double-dip recession. This is really scary stuff."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/7919406/Food-inflation-could-go-beyond-10pc-before-next-year.html

I find it encouraging that there are so many clear signs of deflation around. I look forward to all the cheaper prices for food and other things that people actually need to survive in the future.

Hmmm...soaring food prices and possible shortages, what a marvellous trading opportunity for all those nice city boys!

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High food prices are an inevitable accompaniment to deflation.

Yes but the cost of Blu Ray players is coming down sharply so it is a win win situation all round.

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Will Hayllar, a partner at financial analysts OC&C, said British consumers could expect a lag time of around six months before they saw the full impact on retail prices.

What is the betting the price the farmers get will stay very much the same whilst the supermarkets bleat on about increased costs to justify them increasing their prices to consumers, within 12 months they will be reporting record profits whilst at the same time yet more UK farmers will go to the wall and animal welfare suffers all round.

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Yes but the cost of Blu Ray players is coming down sharply so it is a win win situation all round.

ahh so you could watch heston blumenthal cooking up a 7 course banquest whilst tucking down to boiled rice for the 10th meal in a row :lol:

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i shall be visiting Blighty in a couple of weeks, shall i bring a wheelbarrow just in case?

Think you just need some sort of iphone apps that can deal with lots of zeros to transfer money. Wheelbarrrow is so 1920s... :-) (to be serious, the chance

of hyperinflation is negligible at this point of time)

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ahh so you could watch heston blumenthal cooking up a 7 course banquest whilst tucking down to boiled rice for the 10th meal in a row :lol:

Broken, un polished rice is what you'll be eating though.

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figures.

I find it encouraging that there are so many clear signs of deflation around. I look forward to all the cheaper prices for food and other things that people actually need to survive in the future.

look at land utilisation in this green and fertile land, I bet we could become net exporters if farmers got busy.

most farmers are paid to keep the contryside "looking pretty" FGS.

As Asia develops farmers will farm, except instead of butter, wheat etc mountains building we exchange for RMB/Rups

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Thank heavens this inflation news is in the public domain this early, so the Bank of England can act on it in advance and not be caught out unexpectedly next year.

News of the January VAT rise might possibly have filtered through to them by now.

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Thank heavens this inflation news is in the public domain this early, so the Bank of England can act on it in advance and not be caught out unexpectedly next year.

News of the January VAT rise might possibly have filtered through to them by now.

I think it is a myth that the boe target price inflation.

They would probably say they are targeting stability but to be honest I don't even think they know themselves anymore :lol:

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I think it is a myth that the boe target price inflation.

They would probably say they are targeting stability but to be honest I don't even think they know themselves anymore :lol:

They are targetting housing and have been for the last ten years or so.

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look at land utilisation in this green and fertile land, I bet we could become net exporters if farmers got busy.

most farmers are paid to keep the contryside "looking pretty" FGS.

As Asia develops farmers will farm, except instead of butter, wheat etc mountains building we exchange for RMB/Rups

Farmers suffer from the effects of globalisation as do the rest of us. Apart from the fact we could never be net exporters (not enough land, even if fully utilised to feed ourselves), they can't even get the costs down to the same as their competitor countries with better climates and lower expenses. My friend tells me that he will probably make a loss on winter wheat this year, the sixth year straight in a row. Before about 2002, he used to make good profits.

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There was a thread about the affects of speculation on the price of cocoa, food and other goods.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=146894&view=&hl=&fromsearch=1

First they ruined the property market, and then they fouled up the banks and building societies, before wrecking the high street. Now hedge funds and other financial speculators are threatening the good order of the chocolate market.

Cocoa prices have reached their highest levels for 33 years, increasing 150 per cent in the last 18 months, and financial speculators are being accused of inflating prices to make a financial profit. Cocoa crop failure in the Ivory Coast, the world's top grower, is partly the cause, but some experts are blaming the London commodity market where cocoa is traded.

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look at land utilisation in this green and fertile land, I bet we could become net exporters if farmers got busy.

most farmers are paid to keep the contryside "looking pretty" FGS.

....

Utter ill-informed rubbish.

Firstly the UK exports dairy products. The fall in the pound has been a boost to UK dairy farmers. About one third to a half of dairy is exported. This is against a backdrop of massive over production of liquid milk throughout the EU. For many years the huge overproduction was turned into milk powder. Butter has been sold off at a massive loss (there was a Daily Mail type "scandal" some years ago about it going to Russia at about one-third cost)

The current subsidy system is to be overhauled in 2012. At present farmers get a per-hectare payment called the Single Farm Payment. It is paid whether the land is used for farming or left fallow or used to keep Jocasta's pony. Farmer's are not paid to keep anything looking pretty or to encourage wildlife or to combat climate change or anything useful. It is widely expected that after 2012 environmental issues will be the main thrust of farm subsidy.

The single biggest claimant of farm subsidy in the UK is a sugar company (a huge multinational with interests around the globe). Sugar is set to become a key biofuel (made into alcohol).

Farmers want to farm - they do it for the fun mostly as it is a very low profit activity. Big farming companies are by and large land speculators. In my experience the majority of farming types are dyed in the wool conservatives that favour a free market for everyone except them and they want a massive hand out from the taxpayer. They're mostly pretty thick.

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Guest absolutezero

Food Inflation 'could Go Beyond 10Pc Before Next Year'

or it could not.

Truth is, no-one knows.

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or it could not.

Truth is, no-one knows.

Odds are stacked in favour of hefty rises. That's all anyone can say.

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Guest absolutezero

Odds are stacked in favour of hefty rises. That's all anyone can say.

That's economics for you. Gambling under a different name.

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I find it encouraging that there are so many clear signs of deflation around. I look forward to all the cheaper prices for food and other things that people actually need to survive in the future.

But deflation is all about credit contraction don't you know?! :lol:

Well that is the rubbish that the delfationists keep spewing out, ignoring the effect that the cost of basic staples and goods that each of us has to face each day.

They like to ignore the cost of things and go on about credit contraction creating this Japanese style 80% drop in asset prices, oblivious to the fact that Japan was a global production machine, huge saver, huge cash reserves and had a rising currency the past 30 years.

These facts or fundamentals are irrelevant though to the deflationists. Deflation will create the largest fall in property prices so they believe this view, whether right or wrong.

When the facts or fudamentals change, I will change my view. Until then its inflation all the way.

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Biflation. Welcome to lower living standards.

I still think the ultimate outcome will be deflation. But the vast government bailouts have turned a simple sharp recession/depression into a warped zombie economy.

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Utter ill-informed rubbish.

Firstly the UK exports dairy products. The fall in the pound has been a boost to UK dairy farmers. About one third to a half of dairy is exported. This is against a backdrop of massive over production of liquid milk throughout the EU. For many years the huge overproduction was turned into milk powder. Butter has been sold off at a massive loss (there was a Daily Mail type "scandal" some years ago about it going to Russia at about one-third cost)

my point, in view of the above comments would be; how can food price inflation take hold with the massive spare capacity ?

The current subsidy system is to be overhauled in 2012. At present farmers get a per-hectare payment called the Single Farm Payment. It is paid whether the land is used for farming or left fallow or used to keep Jocasta's pony.

Utter ill-informed rubbish.

any "non-permitted" activity will void the subsidy/hectare, as will failure to declare "other" land usage !

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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