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Guest Noodle

Not seen the quid regarded as a currency for a while, what is going on?

It's up. Why?

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Not seen the quid regarded as a currency for a while, what is going on?

It's up. Why?

I've noticed big deals (Kraft/Cadbury Pru/AIG etc) result in sterling moves and wondered today if Li Ka-shing buying our power from EDF might cause ripples. EDF are obviously French but is he paying in sterling? The deal is mentioned as £5.8bn

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Guest Noodle

I've noticed big deals (Kraft/Cadbury Pru/AIG etc) result in sterling moves and wondered today if Li Ka-shing buying our power from EDF might cause ripples. EDF are obviously French but is he paying in sterling? The deal is mentioned as £5.8bn

Somethings afoot.

Could be a no more QE policy? Good for you guys.

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In Weimar Germany the Reichsmark was still seem as a strong currency (despite 17-fold inflation since the beginning of WW1) right up until the hyperinflation took hold in 1921 when there was a sudden and catastrophic loss of confidence in it.

Patience.

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End of month.

Might be some unwinding of short positions.

Pound strength is because of impending civil war in Greece. The war is brewing between the banks and their patsy government and the workers.

Once war breaks out suckers fleeing the Euro-sham will be breathtaking.

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Not seen the quid regarded as a currency for a while, what is going on?

Essentially it's reverting to it's position before the FX market started getting 'coalitions can't tackle deficits' jitters back in January. Now they think it can tackle deficit so probably go back to $1-65 ish again, before the same cuts thwak GDP for six and send it all tumbling again.

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Guest Noodle

Essentially it's reverting to it's position before the FX market started getting 'coalitions can't tackle deficits' jitters back in January. Now they think it can tackle deficit so probably go back to $1-65 ish again, before the same cuts thwak GDP for six and send it all tumbling again.

Sounds reasonable.

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Pound strength is because of impending civil war in Greece. The war is brewing between the banks and their patsy government and the workers.

Once war breaks out suckers fleeing the Euro-sham will be breathtaking.

If that were the reason wouldn't it only be rising against the Euro? It is green against everything today.

Edited by Redhat Sly

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Yes. Why though?

Why does there have to be a why, the market moves up and down all the time and never in a straight line over any fractal time frame, nobody can give you a definitive answer as to why because nobody has access to the mind of every person who traded GBP today, there were just more buyers than sellers, a million traders around the world with different things impacting their lives at this moment in time decided net to buy sterling today, thats all there is really

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Guest Noodle

Because we have such a strong economy :unsure:

Perhaps.

It's breaking through up into the next trading range (I use the Baht as an indicator for this). I was thinking perhaps those in the know, know that QE has come to an end for good. This would be very good news for you HPC people.

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Perhaps.

It's breaking through up into the next trading range (I use the Baht as an indicator for this). I was thinking perhaps those in the know, know that QE has come to an end for good. This would be very good news for you HPC people.

I don't believe QE has come to an end, in fact Merv is keen to fire up the press should the recovery falter. So basically we print to create positive growth and the markets have bought it, hook, line and sinker.

Edited by MrFlibble

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Guest Noodle

I don't believe QE has come to an end, in fact Merv is keen to fire up the press should the recovery falter. So basically we print to create positive growth and the markets have bought it, hook, line and sinker.

Well, t'was $1.495 30 days ago and it's just cracked $1.57, with a big old charge up there last week.

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Yes. Why though?

about 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.

So, in the short therm exchange rates have very little to do with reality. It's the long term that matters.

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Well, t'was $1.495 30 days ago and it's just cracked $1.57, with a big old charge up there last week.

Tell me about it, I've 20% of my pile in Dollars, this rise is costing me. Still it could be worse, two months ago I had 80% in Dollars :o

The irony is in a few months those positions will probably be reversed again, but maybe not Dollars this time ;)

The truth is the UK only left recession on the back of QE and ZIRP but now we are desperate not to 'double-dip' so I'm betting the printer will be fired back up again. With house prices looking to be sliding again, the coming cuts and VAT increase then I honestly cannot see how we can keep the growth figure positive unless we print and feed the money directly in. It's all a sham. What is happening in the US right now is a glimpse of what countries like the UK have coming in the next 6-12 months.

I think the market is buying Sterling on what they see currently, which looks pretty good compared to Europe and the US. No doubt they'll turn on us again when the UK's fortunes turn again.

Edited by MrFlibble

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Investors seem to have more confidence in £ now we seem to be starting to deal with the deficit and some descent numbers (GDP and Retail Sales) have also helped quite a lot. The eurozone is bust and US growth seems to be disappointing. Not much competition either.

I have not heard Osbourne mention it but I personally don't think he would allow Mervyn any more QE. He has to ask for permission form the chancellor and I can't see it being given. Cameron has said in the past he wanted QE finished ASAP.

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End of month.

Might be some unwinding of short positions.

+1

During the second half 2008 Brent crude jumped by up to $2/barrel in the last few hours of the last trading day of each month as short sellers closed positions to give them a good monthly balance sheet. I made a tidy some trading it :)

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-30/economy-in-u-s-grew-less-than-forecast-as-trade-gap-widened.html

U.S. Economy Grew 2.4% in Second Quarter, Below Forecast
By Timothy R. Homan - Jul 30, 2010 5:14 PM GMT
July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, discusses the U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product figures released by the Commerce Department today and the outlook for the economy. Growth in the U.S. slowed to a 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than forecast, reflecting a larger trade deficit and an easing in consumer spending. Lebas speaks with Carol Massar on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop With Betty Liu.” (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter as a scarcity of jobs eroded consumer spending, leaving the rebound dependent on a surge in business investment.
Gross domestic product grew at a 2.4 percent annual pace, less than forecast, after a 3.7 percent first-quarter gain that was larger than previously estimated, according to Commerce Department data issued today in Washington. Other reports showed business activity unexpectedly accelerated in July and consumer sentiment fell less than projected.

Part of the reason for Sterling strength is the US economy. Looks like they are falling behind us with only 2.4% growth last Q. Hang on a minute.......

The Pound should be tanking for a number of reasons that have not convinced the traders:

1. Our 4-5TR debt and no credible plan to pay it off or to keep ahead of the Interest payments.

2. Our rising unemployment with most new jobs being part-time

3. Our fourth month in a row drop in house prices

It may be that the spotlight has shifted away fro the EU now that they have tackled their debt issues and its now on the US with the UK to be in the spotlight later on in the summer. For now, the world is convinced that the Koalishon have it under control with a massive 1.1% growth figure last month and no signs of stress in the banks (because the government own most of them).

Sterling did hit 1.37 low this year and the recent rise does seem like the speculators are going to run it up to beyond 1.60 or so which will then get Merv worried about our faltering export markets.

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Tell me about it, I've 20% of my pile in Dollars, this rise is costing me. Still it could be worse, two months ago I had 80% in Dollars :o

The irony is in a few months those positions will probably be reversed again, but maybe not Dollars this time ;)

The truth is the UK only left recession on the back of QE and ZIRP but now we are desperate not to 'double-dip' so I'm betting the printer will be fired back up again. With house prices looking to be sliding again, the coming cuts and VAT increase then I honestly cannot see how we can keep the growth figure positive unless we print and feed the money directly in. It's all a sham. What is happening in the US right now is a glimpse of what countries like the UK have coming in the next 6-12 months.

I think the market is buying Sterling on what they see currently, which looks pretty good compared to Europe and the US. No doubt they'll turn on us again when the UK's fortunes turn again.

+7

The fundamentals for Sterling are all negative IMO. Austerity has not begun and no jobs have been lost yet. House prices are still holding up (20% down is where the pound will tank--6 months to go). The US are earlier on in the down cycle which will hit us much later--maybe a year lag. If we are in a global economy and the US is still our number 2 customer (number one on a single nation basis) we may feel a downdraft quite soon.

The US may be pulling another one of its "strong dollar" policy tricks that "Jumping Jim" Paulson used to keep the dollar low for a number of years to get US exports moving. I haven't heard the new guy say anything about a strong dollar policy yet though.

I am about 80% in $ but plan to keep a large chunk in the US long term for a possible house investment for retirement if I find I cannot buy anything decent here. All depends on if we get our 50% drop from the top or not.

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  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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