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gruffydd

Germany Booming?

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Hi, just spoken to friend in Deutschland and his Summer holiday has been cut :-( because of massive export demand - he said it's happening across the manufacturing sector. Seems like they really do have an export driven recovery. Blimey.

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I was sitting there with my mouth hanging open when he explained what was going on. And you're right, the demand is coming from China and other Asian countries. Looks like Anglo-Saxon capitalism has been beaten game, set and match. Reagan and Thatcher RIP.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703578104575397342677852482.html

http://www.oliverwyman.com/ow/49503.htm

Germany's New Economic Miracle

Germany's economy is rapidly rolling toward recovery.

During the worst of the global financial meltdown, Berlin pumped tens of billions of euros into the economy and spent hundreds of billions propping up German banks. Now, the country is reaping the benefits as Germany is once again Europe's economic motor. By SPIEGEL Staff

It was just the sort of photo-op German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently needs. Peter Löscher, the CEO of electronics giant Siemens, was sitting on a throne-like chair in the governor's palace in the central Russian city of Yekaterinburg. Contracts were being handed to him in brown leather folders, and every time Löscher signed one of the documents with his malachite green pen, the chancellor clapped with delight. The procedure took place four times, and by the time the round of contract signing ended, Siemens had secured Russian orders worth about €4 billion ($5.2 billion).

The real purpose of Merkel's five-day visit to Russia and China last week was to hold political talks with the two countries' leaders, but the most important message of the trip was meant for the German people. Look, Merkel seemed to indicating to German citizens, German industry is in demand worldwide, even if the government at home is divided and lacking direction.

The German economy has indeed come roaring back to life this summer. Two years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the auto industry is adding extra shifts once again. The machine building, electronics and chemical industries are all reporting a rapidly growing number of orders. Total unemployment is expected to drop below the 2.8 million mark this fall, the lowest level since 1991.

For the first time in decades, the former "sick man of Europe" is back to being an engine for economic growth. According to an internal government assessment, the country's gross domestic product increased by more than 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year. In their last prognosis, completed in April, government officials had predicted only 0.9 percent GDP growth. Production in the manufacturing industry increased by 5 percent over the previous quarter. The government assessment also shows that exports grew by more than 9 percent in May.

Blimey!

Edited by gruffydd

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Guest Noodle

Yep, with Asia.................China got their back ref the Anglo-saxion attack on the Euro.

Mike

Yep, agreed. It's up, up and away here even in the sticks.

Anyone know anything about USD carry trade into Asia? Is this happening? Or is it self-financed via the Asian bond markets? Or is it getting rid of stockpiles of foreign currency holdings?

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http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/TimeSeries/EconomicIndicators/Production/Content100/kpi111x12.psml

Needs to be taken in context. The fall was so large from 122 on the German industrial production index in Apr 08 to 85 in Feb 2009 and Jan 10. i.e a fall of 30% that any increase seems like a large increase.

The truth is that while welcome news as Germany is one of our large export markets the fact is that German industrial production is now at the same level as 2005.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703578104575397342677852482.html

http://www.oliverwyman.com/ow/49503.htm

Germany's New Economic Miracle

Germany's economy is rapidly rolling toward recovery.

During the worst of the global financial meltdown, Berlin pumped tens of billions of euros into the economy and spent hundreds of billions propping up German banks. Now, the country is reaping the benefits as Germany is once again Europe's economic motor. By SPIEGEL Staff

It was just the sort of photo-op German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently needs. Peter Löscher, the CEO of electronics giant Siemens, was sitting on a throne-like chair in the governor's palace in the central Russian city of Yekaterinburg. Contracts were being handed to him in brown leather folders, and every time Löscher signed one of the documents with his malachite green pen, the chancellor clapped with delight. The procedure took place four times, and by the time the round of contract signing ended, Siemens had secured Russian orders worth about €4 billion ($5.2 billion).

The real purpose of Merkel's five-day visit to Russia and China last week was to hold political talks with the two countries' leaders, but the most important message of the trip was meant for the German people. Look, Merkel seemed to indicating to German citizens, German industry is in demand worldwide, even if the government at home is divided and lacking direction.

The German economy has indeed come roaring back to life this summer. Two years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the auto industry is adding extra shifts once again. The machine building, electronics and chemical industries are all reporting a rapidly growing number of orders. Total unemployment is expected to drop below the 2.8 million mark this fall, the lowest level since 1991.

For the first time in decades, the former "sick man of Europe" is back to being an engine for economic growth. According to an internal government assessment, the country's gross domestic product increased by more than 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year. In their last prognosis, completed in April, government officials had predicted only 0.9 percent GDP growth. Production in the manufacturing industry increased by 5 percent over the previous quarter. The government assessment also shows that exports grew by more than 9 percent in May.

Blimey!

Spent a four days in Berlin a weeks ago. The city still suffers from quite high structural unemployment post reunification so any uptick in the German economy will be welcomed. I have to say it was a pleasure to visit a place where the transport infrastructure actually worked and you could travel in the rush hour without being crushed to death. Even in stifling heat and with no air conditioning the U-Bahn and the S-Bahn were bearable In addition I could not help notice that the cost of rented property was much, much lower than in the UK .

Merkel's visit to Russia was a big item on the news and is a sign that the German Chancellor is trying to open up their country's historic trading hinterland to the East. Of course, none of this is covered by the UK media which seemed to spend its time endlessly picking over the bones of Camerons visit to Washington and the state of the 'special relationship' (you know the one where we take it up the Gary Glitter from the Yanks while they steal anything worth having). Really summed up the post imperial fantasy world that still consumes the British governing classes and media.

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I was sitting there with my mouth hanging open when he explained what was going on. And you're right, the demand is coming from China and other Asian countries. Looks like Anglo-Saxon capitalism has been beaten game, set and match. Reagan and Thatcher RIP.

Indeed. I always believed in the Fatherland and the superiority of the Saxon race. Down with the wicked Brits and their Cousins across the Atlantic. Wir sind alles scheissvolks nicht wahr?

Hang on, the largest white ethnic group in the US are Germans. :o

Hang on again, the largest ethnic group in the UK are Saxons and Saxons came from.......Germany!

Yikes the Germans are taking over the world.

Moves into song:

Deutshcland, Deutschland Uber Alles,

Oom pah pah OOm pahh: moves into hearty Bavarian bierkeller song......

Jealousy of America runs deep among many on this site and if some were aware that the fight is against Germanic peoples there might be a warming of heart! :D

http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2008/05/did-germans-win-both-world-wars.html

Not very often mentioned is that Germans make up the largest ethnic group in the USA, with 50 million Americans in 2006 claiming German descent. They were the biggest nationality of immigrants into the US, and while only some of these made it to President such as Nixon and Hoover (anglicised from Huber), Americans of German descent have been at the forefront of many aspects of American life, and particularly of all American military victories starting with the War Of Independence against England.

Baron Von Steuben, a Prussian officer is credited with having reorganised the American Army and worked out the tactics that turned probable defeat by Britain into victory for the colonists.

In the First World War it was General Pershing, a name of German descent, who commanded America's forces on the western front. In WW2 it was Eisenhower (from Eisenhauer), and more recently in the first Iraq War it was Schwartzkopf who delivered victory to his President.

Edited by Realistbear

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sssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhh keep this kind of news quiet, this will upset a few HPC doomsters.

Try buying and Audi or a BMW, the lead times are crazy. Audi rehiring I hear in the UK...........................thats it thats me doomed to the HPC gulag :lol:

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Guest Noodle

sssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhh keep this kind of news quiet, this will upset a few HPC doomsters.

Try buying and Audi or a BMW, the lead times are crazy. Audi rehiring I hear in the UK...........................thats it thats me doomed to the HPC gulag :lol:

I enjoy your optimism and hope you're right.

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Indeed. I always believed in the Fatherland and the superiority of the Saxon race. Down with the wicked Brits and their Cousins across the Atlantic. Wir sind alles scheissvolks nicht wahr?

Hang on, the largest white ethnic group in the US are Germans. :o

Hang on again, the largest ethnic group in the UK are Saxons and Saxons came from.......Germany!

Yikes the Germans are taking over the world.

Moves into song:

Deutshcland, Deutschland Uber Alles,

Oom pah pah OOm pahh: moves into hearty Bavarian bierkeller song......

Jealousy of America runs deep among many on this site and if some were aware that the fight is against Germanic peoples there might be a warming of heart! :D

http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2008/05/did-germans-win-both-world-wars.html

Not very often mentioned is that Germans make up the largest ethnic group in the USA, with 50 million Americans in 2006 claiming German descent. They were the biggest nationality of immigrants into the US, and while only some of these made it to President such as Nixon and Hoover (anglicised from Huber), Americans of German descent have been at the forefront of many aspects of American life, and particularly of all American military victories starting with the War Of Independence against England.

Baron Von Steuben, a Prussian officer is credited with having reorganised the American Army and worked out the tactics that turned probable defeat by Britain into victory for the colonists.

In the First World War it was General Pershing, a name of German descent, who commanded America's forces on the western front. In WW2 it was Eisenhower (from Eisenhauer), and more recently in the first Iraq War it was Schwartzkopf who delivered victory to his President.

Anglo-Saxon capitalism refers to the type of capitalism generally promoted in English speaking countries (hence the term Anglo-Saxon). Blimey, didn't think I needed to explain that to you! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxon_economy

I tend to see Anglo-Saxon capitalism as the type of nonsense we inherited from Thatcher and Reagan.

Edited by gruffydd

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And it was Bush who led us into Iraq.

Not to be confused with Boche, Bosch, or botch.

And it was Herr Hitler who led us into WW2. Oh hang on, that was America's fault for staying out of the war until late in the day as they did not want to annoy their cousins from the Fatherland. Maybe the 3rd largest ethnic group in the US, the Poles, started the war because it was Poland that got overrun by the Germans?

As for Bush, he is not a Saxon but from Irish ancestry with the line going back to Brian Boru. This explains why he invaded Iraq--the Irish love to fight. Reagan was also an Irishman and that explains how he overran East Europe.

I suppose its down with the Irish now? Odd thing, most Americans (white) are Germans and yet a large proportion of their presidents are Irish. Does that mean that the Irish are not as thick as some make out? Or more thick? I am Southern Irish meself--but that is grandparents so that doesn't count.

http://www.nitakeacloserlook.gov.uk/index/american-connections.htm

More than one-third of all United States Presidents have had ancestral links to today’s Northern Ireland - proportionately far more than from any other immigrant group.

At least 15, from Andrew Jackson (7th) to George W.Bush (43rd), are descended from the many thousands of Ulster Scots, often known as Scots-Irish in the US, settlers who left the northern counties of Ireland for the New World in the 18th and 19th centuries.

These so-called Scots-Irish were in the vanguard of the pioneers who opened up the frontier and became, in the words of a prominent historian, “the first true Americans” who helped make the United States what it is today. Yet it often comes as a surprise for people to learn that so many Presidents, generals, bankers, inventors and movie stars had their roots in the same little corner of the world, sharing ‘this stern and virile’ heritage, as Theodore Roosevelt described his maternal Scots-Irish ancestry.

To take the most recent White House occupants: President George W Bush and his father, former President George Bush, have two Ulster Presbyterian families in their ancestral tree, the Gaults and the Weirs who settled in Blount Co., Tennessee in the late 1700's. Former President Clinton, during his numerous visits to Northern Ireland, spoke with pride about his Ayer, Blythe and Cassidy family origins, representing both religious traditions.

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How much of the "growth" is just a fall in the value of the Euro?

Last year the Germans could sell a £1 item in UK and earn near enough 1 euro. If they now sell a £1 item they get 1.20 euros. A 20% growth in earnings. I know this only works because they produce and export stuff people want, but a large part of the rise in German export fortunes is surely caused by the Greek debt crisis and its effect on the euro.

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Anglo-Saxon capitalism refers to the type of capitalism generally promoted in English speaking countries (hence the term Anglo-Saxon). Blimey, didn't think I needed to explain that to you! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxon_economy

I tend to see Anglo-Saxon capitalism as the type of nonsense we inherited from Thatcher and Reagan.

IMO its weird pitting the Anglo-Saxons against the Saxons (Germany) as if they conduct business more ethically. Capitalism goes back a lot further than Brown and even Thatcher or Reagan.

The greatest nonsense I have EVER seen is the so-called miracle foisted on us by not an Anglo or a Saxon but by a Celt named Brown. Thatcher did not put us 4TR in debt and she didn't believe in economic miracles only reality checks.

Capitalism is capitalism whether its Celtic, Anglo-Saxon, Saxon or even Chinese. Its slight variations on a theme. In fact there is only capitalism if you count state capitalism (communism or variations thereof). Everyone is in it for themselves to make a buck. Scammers the lot.

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The fight is against German peoples is it RB ? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-396635/Were-German-How-herr-raising.html

Seriously, what has the nature of capitalism adopted by a country got to do with ethnicity? It's more to do with which idiot economists ended up influencing which tiny government elites.

Michel Albert influenced the model adopted in Germany,

Friedrich von Hayek and Milton Friedman influenced the UK and American model.

Sure, they're all variations on a theme, though the Anglo Saxon model has been gaining ground for decades and I was pointing out that perhaps the more sustainable and efficient form in the long term is the variation adopted in Germany.

Edited by gruffydd

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Hi, just spoken to friend in Deutschland and his Summer holiday has been cut :-( because of massive export demand - he said it's happening across the manufacturing sector. Seems like they really do have an export driven recovery. Blimey.

I would imagine this is due to the enormous Chinese stimulus package more than anything else. I'm sure you are all aware of this, but have a read of Hugh Hendry's stuff as it is littered all over the www. He's convinced it's a humoungous bubble waitng to end in nasty ways.

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Hi, just spoken to friend in Deutschland and his Summer holiday has been cut :-( because of massive export demand - he said it's happening across the manufacturing sector. Seems like they really do have an export driven recovery. Blimey.

It makes sense. It is a well governed country, educated labour force and brilliant infrastructure - including properties: of good quality and plentiful, hence very affordable, for both households and businesses, thus reducing both living costs and production costs, helping a lot the country's international competitiveness. Germany will be fine.

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I was sitting there with my mouth hanging open when he explained what was going on. And you're right, the demand is coming from China and other Asian countries. Looks like Anglo-Saxon capitalism has been beaten game, set and match. Reagan and Thatcher RIP.

Sounds like a health relationship - China bought the high tech stuffs and germans gots their cloth and flat screen tv. The Anglo Saxon needs to build things that the chinese/indian wants (thought US government frequently block high tech export to China..)

However, China also move up the value chain rapidly, what they buy today, they will be building it at half price 5 years down the line...

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I was sitting there with my mouth hanging open when he explained what was going on. And you're right, the demand is coming from China and other Asian countries. Looks like Anglo-Saxon capitalism has been beaten game, set and match. Reagan and Thatcher RIP.

sorry but Thatcher was all into export-led recoveries - early 80s and early 90s prime examples

I think you mean Anglo-Saxon deficit-based-socialism is in its death (or should I say debt-) throws. that would be more like it.

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Euro devalued against dollar, Yuan pegged against dollar move along no miracle to be seen here.

Someone must be losing out! No doubt the next revaluation will give another economy a boost.

But it seems like the size of the cake isn't big enough for everybody to have a piece.

Chinese stimulus was truly massive as well.

Capital has velocity it seems.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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