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Realistbear

Yesterday's Euphoria Turns To Today's Gloom

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7917357/Britons-fears-raise-double-dip-recession-chance.html

Britons' fears raise double-dip recession chance
The prospect of a double-dip recession in Britain is increasing with every month as consumer confidence dwindles to recession levels, a long-running study signalled.
By Angela "Angie" Monaghan
Published: 5:55AM BST 30 Jul 2010
1 Comment
A survey from GfK suggests that the chance of a double-dip recession in Britain is growing by the month.
The
July Consumer Confidence index from GfK NOP fell for a fifth month in July,
by three points to -22. It is the lowest reading since August 2009, when the British economy was still contracting.
It was also the first opportunity that consumers had to respond to the austerity measures announced in the Government's emergency Budget in June which will bear down on households over the coming months and years.

Apart from minuscule drops in house prices (according to VI statistics) everything has been up up up (FTSE, consumer spending etc.).

Are the media confused or are we the headless chicken waiting to crash?

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Of course we're going down again ffs.

Tories sack a massive amount of the public sector workforce, which in turn is going to affect a large swathe of private sector comapnies which either directly (all the farmed out stuff these days) or indirectly (sandwich shops, supermarkets, other service industries etc.)

Tories don't give a stuff though as their interests are well taken care of being a bunch of posh *****.

It's too early for me to be more intellectually sensible about it but that's it in a nutshell.

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GLOOM, for lack of a better word, is good.

GLOOM is right, GLOOM works.

GLOOM clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

:P

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Story from the front Line

Hi guys, Long time no post for me. Having been a lurker once again since 07 time.

After experiencing the effects of Boom and Bust first hand, I am currently tiding myself over in the retail sector. The sub niche I am currently working in would be described as Big ticket, discretionary spending. I have been working in the sector now for 3 months. When I first joined things were busy in the context of the current climate to the point where any long term balanced HPC/GEI poster/Lurker would question where is the money coming from to fund this?

Then came the Election, since that point things have fallen off a cliff, the counter argument to this would be time of year, however footfall is down some 20% year on year. Things are defiantly on the turn. As a side note looking back over the figures for previous years it would seem that the sub prime crisis in 07 and Lehman in 08 had much less effect on numbers than you may think. This however seems to be the big one.

Consumer attitudes have changed overnight. People have become very defensive and absolutely will only spend the minimum they can to get a result, even if the result is not as good as it could be.

Speaking to a young lad who has recently returned to the company as a supplicant, he is stunned at the difference between now and when he left the company originally about 15 months ago. Of one particular product group he said this time a 2 years ago I was doing 6-7 of those a day, now I am lucky to do 1 every couple of days.

As a side note on the jobs market, I regularly receive emails from the large jobs boards such as Fish4, Reed, Total Jobs,Jobsite etc, The percentage of “Sales”jobs to the sum total [iE Conning people into s—t they don't want or need, at maximum yield] of the sum total seems to be rising week on week, month on month.

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The fear stage hasn't even stated over here. Mr Reality has been knocking on the door for some time but the people of Treasure Island have chosen to ignore him while flipping their houses for even more profit.

I'm sorry to be the barer of bad news but Mr Reality got pissed off pressing the door bell and has gone looking for an axe to break the door in...

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if with £160bn of EXTRA stimulus borrowing, and £200bn of QE, we can only manage FLAT....doesnt that tell us that the real productive economy is really £360bn DOWN?

course it does

but GDP include government spend....so the borrowed compensates for the drop.

cut that and the real, sustainable business is revealed.

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Tories don't give a stuff though as their interests are well taken care of being a bunch of posh *****.

No, you're right, Labour did such a bang up job of looking after the economy I can't for the life of me think why we changed government <_<

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Story from the front Line

Hi guys, Long time no post for me. Having been a lurker once again since 07 time.

After experiencing the effects of Boom and Bust first hand, I am currently tiding myself over in the retail sector. The sub niche I am currently working in would be described as Big ticket, discretionary spending. I have been working in the sector now for 3 months. When I first joined things were busy in the context of the current climate to the point where any long term balanced HPC/GEI poster/Lurker would question where is the money coming from to fund this?

Then came the Election, since that point things have fallen off a cliff, the counter argument to this would be time of year, however footfall is down some 20% year on year. Things are defiantly on the turn. As a side note looking back over the figures for previous years it would seem that the sub prime crisis in 07 and Lehman in 08 had much less effect on numbers than you may think. This however seems to be the big one.

Consumer attitudes have changed overnight. People have become very defensive and absolutely will only spend the minimum they can to get a result, even if the result is not as good as it could be.

Speaking to a young lad who has recently returned to the company as a supplicant, he is stunned at the difference between now and when he left the company originally about 15 months ago. Of one particular product group he said this time a 2 years ago I was doing 6-7 of those a day, now I am lucky to do 1 every couple of days.

As a side note on the jobs market, I regularly receive emails from the large jobs boards such as Fish4, Reed, Total Jobs,Jobsite etc, The percentage of “Sales”jobs to the sum total [iE Conning people into s—t they don't want or need, at maximum yield] of the sum total seems to be rising week on week, month on month.

Thanks....

Which part of the country are you in?

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Guest Steve Cook

Of course we're going down again ffs.

Tories sack a massive amount of the public sector workforce, which in turn is going to affect a large swathe of private sector comapnies which either directly (all the farmed out stuff these days) or indirectly (sandwich shops, supermarkets, other service industries etc.)

Tories don't give a stuff though as their interests are well taken care of being a bunch of posh *****.

It's too early for me to be more intellectually sensible about it but that's it in a nutshell.

yep

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Crap Jap figures today:

Forex Cal

German Retail sales ugly too

US GDP this afternoon could cause a serious speed wobble if below expectations.

This coming turn has clear to anyone of average intelligence for a couple of months now and the 'professional' economists should begin to notice it too in another couple of months. :)

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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