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Pent Up

Who Says We Are Not In The Fear Stage...

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Saw this today:

The background in brief: we are trying to sell our first home, a 2-bed terraced house in an inner-city location, on market for a month and had a couple of viewings but no offers. Property is not in immaculate order but is modernised and reasonably ok. Comparable properties are on market for £109k-£110k, and we have just cut our asking price from £110k to £100k. Frankly, I am getting a bit twitchy about the state of the market and our neighbours (mildly annoying, worried about it getting worse). We have a fair chunk of equity and could go down to c£75k if necessary.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=2627877

Also saw a very pleasant flat on RM yesterday reduced from £120k to £95k. 20% off in one go :D

Edited by Pent Up

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<Put Deerstalker Hat on, places pipe in mouth>

Interesting......

It is their first house so I am assuming they have bought it in the last few years....they have equity so they can sell at £75k....I am assuming they placed down a small deposit.....possibly 5%.....so purchase price was possibly around the £80k mark....may be a 10% deposit although rare back in 2007 for a FTB. So lets estimate they paid on the high side, lets say £85,000.

So if I am correct they are still looking to make 20% on their house even though during that period houses were apparently supposed to have dropped 20-30%.....and I am assuming that at the price they mention we are not talking London or SE.

I deduce that these people are deluded home buyers who have watched far too much "homes under the hammer" and "location location location". They are no different to 99% of current home owners. I would hazzard a guess that this house in its current condition should be worth no more than £75,000 and it sounds as if the market is forcing these fine people to accept that.

To believe that you can make money on any property purchased in the past 5 years is simply crazy talk. These people will be lucky to get their initial deposit back.

<removes hat and places pipe back in drawer>

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<Put Deerstalker Hat on, places pipe in mouth>

To believe that you can make money on any property purchased in the past 5 years is simply crazy talk. These people will be lucky to get their initial deposit back.

<removes hat and places pipe back in drawer>

<confiscates crack pipe from Einstein71>

<Shows Einstein a property that made £20m in last five years>

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<confiscates crack pipe from Einstein71>

<Shows Einstein a property that made £20m in last five years>

I suggest the crack pipe is significant. Reading the link - back down from the crack-high - I see

"reported to have been sold for a record breaking £43m, to a private Russian investor"

and

"Noel De Keyzer director at Savills, said: "This shows the continued strength of the top end property market in London and the fact that overseas buyers are still taking advantage of weak sterling"

When sober, this looks like classic wishful-VI-cliches to me. Somehow I doubt a cheque fof £43m changed hands....

EDIT: correct quote

Edited by dryrot

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I suggest the crack pipe is significant. Reading the link - back down from the crack-high - I see

"reported to have been sold for a record breaking £43m, to a private Russian investor"

and

"Noel De Keyzer director at Savills, said: "This shows the continued strength of the top end property market in London and the fact that overseas buyers are still taking advantage of weak sterling"

When sober, this looks like classic wishful-VI-cliches to me. Somehow I doubt a cheque fof £43m changed hands....

EDIT: correct quote

SIBLEY has responded to them telling them they cant lose on houses :o ,there he is in all his glory, :P

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SIBLEY has responded to them telling them they cant lose on houses :o ,there he is in all his glory, :P

I saw that as well - made me quite cross! I do, however, take a lot of solace in knowing that the market will do what the market will do...

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SIBLEY has responded to them telling them they cant lose on houses :o ,there he is in all his glory, :P

Cannot resist reposting in all his glory:

Personally I think you have become a victim of this weeks house prices will crash propaganda. Just relax. Good homes in decent areas will never drop money. Just sit tight. Don't sell cheap and watch some vulture make money off your back. Let them save and do it the hard way like everyone else. These threads get hijacked by disenchanted renters who want to talk the market down. You try joining their forums and saying prices won't drop. You'll be banned straight away. They ought to get same treatment here.

I especially enjoyed the bit in bold

:lol:

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SIBLEY has responded to them telling them they cant lose on houses :o ,there he is in all his glory, :P

Sibbers hasn't been banned from here has he? I quite miss having him around - he was good for comedy value if nothing else...sort of like watching a monkey ride a bike :lol:

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To believe that you can make money on any property purchased in the past 5 years is simply crazy talk. These people will be lucky to get their initial deposit back.

Actually, I hate to say this, but people do!!

I was very depressed this morning to get my mouseprice newsletter - a house that last sold for £135k in 2007, was sold last month for £203k.... I remember this one being on the market and as far as I could see was nice, but hadn't been massively modernised to justify the nearly £70k increase at a time when house prices were pretty flat. And this isn't the only one that's made a profit in the last three years, although certainly the most significant.

This is a small Welsh town btw, not inner London or anything. When will the HPC happen again, people round here don't particuarly seem to have noticed... ?

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Sibbers hasn't been banned from here has he? I quite miss having him around - he was good for comedy value if nothing else...sort of like watching a monkey ride a bike :lol:

There really needs to be acampaign to Bring back the "Sib" and "Mc Tw@ttish" they were great value

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There really needs to be acampaign to Bring back the "Sib" and "Mc Tw@ttish" they were great value

I agree but only if he keeps the red troll avatar with the crazy hair.Its safer is hes on here where he can be contained,let loose on MSE he could be seen as a messiah and do untold damage to already desperate people :o

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Yeah I'd like to seem them here too. I never had the pleasure of conversing with them here. It must have been a good laugh.

Still at least we can still read there drivel over there.

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I agree but only if he keeps the red troll avatar with the crazy hair.Its safer is hes on here where he can be contained,let loose on MSE he could be seen as a messiah and do untold damage to already desperate people :o

You've just made me conjur up an image of sibley and his band of disciples setting up a commune (in maidstone of course) where they just sit around in cheap suits, reading the express and fiddling with themselves whilst watching location and HUTH :o:o:o

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Yeah I'd like to seem them here too. I never had the pleasure of conversing with them here. It must have been a good laugh.

Still at least we can still read there drivel over there.

He was entertaining to a point but his refusal to expand on his theory as to why prices wouldn't fall was simply annoying.

He'd just post something like: "They won't let them fall..." or "Good areas never loose (sic) value..." and retreat under his bridge, like all good trolls, refusing to debate properly.

At least McTavish, despite his bullish cockiness, had a bit of substance to his argument - whether you agreed with him or not.

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Sibbers hasn't been banned from here has he? I quite miss having him around - he was good for comedy value if nothing else...sort of like watching a monkey ride a bike :lol:

I agree. Sibley was good for a laugh. For him to be banned, unless he did something wrong like abuse, suggests the mods are taking the site too seriously.

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I agree. Sibley was good for a laugh. For him to be banned, unless he did something wrong like abuse, suggests the mods are taking the site too seriously.

If someone is blatantly trolling and not adding to the debate but rather just repeatedly inciting arguments then it's good forum management to kick the troll off.

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If someone is blatantly trolling and not adding to the debate but rather just repeatedly inciting arguments then it's good forum management to kick the troll off.

By those rules, many on this site would be banned.

His opinion was valid (to him). And he was funny.

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I say we are not in the fear stage.

There is no fear where I live in the SE.

I give it at least another month until the fear stage starts.

but are we in the 'fear of the fear stage'yet tho? like the pre-fear stage if you know what I mean. A little in denial.

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but are we in the 'fear of the fear stage'yet tho? like the pre-fear stage if you know what I mean. A little in denial.

No wonder sellers are 'getting twitchy' when they see stuff like:

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/8298993.BranksomA BRANKSOME beach hut has gone on sale for a “bargain” £70,000, say estate agents.

'Daily Echo readers may scoff at the hefty price tag, especially in a climate of constant speculation of a UK housing slump'.

Given that the Bournemouth Echo is a comfy Mom n' Pop local rag that relies on EA's for its ad revenue - this is frightening talk indeed.

Edited by juvenal

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but are we in the 'fear of the fear stage'yet tho? like the pre-fear stage if you know what I mean. A little in denial.

Theyve only just turnt over again, this thing is happening over a long period the monthly moves in themselves are pretty immaterial, technically the real fear wont happen until you take out the March 09 lows, that will be the realization that its clearly not a new bull market. Id say that should happen by about Q1Q2 2011 with Zirp and the Capitualtion stage (Fundamentals break down) will start about a year after that will need loss of control of the currency which will see interest rates back where they were in the 80s, an effective ERM type currency crisis debt driven, it will decimate houseprices, the stock market, businesses and probably gold too if the rates are no longer negative real and that is a depression if it happens

But each of these things you take stage by stage of the forecast, so the next interesting point is taking out the March 09 stockmarket and housing lows, if they happen and quite quickly (< 1 year) it then increases the odds of the next stage and so on, if they dont happen then we might be saved.

Sterling is also the thing to watch intermittently on its declines it has a hugely important level at above 1.30 dollars thats its tested and held about 5 times in the last 20 years, if that goes its technically fooked

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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