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The Masked Tulip

House Prices Now 35% Below Their 2006 Peak

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Our Celtic cousins across the water...

http://www.irishtime...4275808676.html

...and our Scottish cousins fear the same...

http://business.scot...oans.6448133.jp

*** 50%*** reduction {so far} from peak 2007 price:

http://www.chesterto...5B4270E3%7D.pdf.

http://www.houseweb.com/190721/

http://www.propertys.../detail/8860340

Still massively overpriced.

Ive seen the same houses go to auction 4 times over a year, and after recieving a number of bids, only a ttract a highest bid of around 66% off the peak 2007 sold price.

[Nice houses too]

But the Bank doesnt have to sell, being propped up by the taxpayer.......

No chance I am buying until they return to their pre 2000 prices.

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In East Sussex Coastal we are down about 10% YoY. All that action since late Spring. My local EA said its down to increasing supply and diminishing confidence. I know because I am partially responsible for it. The house I am renting just sold because my LL believed what I told her about the coming crash (I believe it too!). That caused her to drop her price from 280 to 250 to beat the rush.

Its real folks.

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We've just bought a house and prices are definately down here (West Mids) although percentage wise they're down more at the lower price range. We moved up here about 18 months ago and some of the larger more expensive houses have been up for sale since then. I've offered on a couple and owners said "we're not selling at that price" and they won't. I also just took a look at where we moved from (poncy part of West London) and prices are down but again more at the bottom end.

Interest rates at zero have made a massive impact. My sister is much better off in the recession - brother in law is getting less overtime but mortgage is a lot less so they're better off plus bro in law is working fewer hours. OK, got to keep the job but nevertheless in some ways people are better off.

Weird situation I think. I still think interest rates/unemployment need to go up a lot to get a big percentage drop in UK in areas other than flats and less attractive areas. Bit like Waiting for Godot the HPC. Government/banks have also learned their lessons about the impact of repossession.

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lot less so they're better off plus bro in law is working fewer hours. OK, got to keep the job but nevertheless in some ways people are better off.

There it is in a nutshell. If he loses his job they HAVE to sell. The housing market is only 3 or 4% of housing stock and so you have to ask yourself are 3 or 4% of households in the UK going to be negatively affected by these RECORD cuts in public spending. If you think it will affect that small percentage (losing their jobs/contracts/having to go Part Time etc) then you suddenly have a lot of forced sellers at a time when everybody else isnt buying and banks are not lending.

It isn't exactly Rocket Science and that is why every economist is now starting to admit big falls are coming !!

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But the Bank doesnt have to sell, being propped up by the taxpayer.......

No chance I am buying until they return to their pre 2000 prices.

You know I hadn't thought of that being a reason for them not selling at auction... I just assumed it was greedy sellers.

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I don't think the Scots have as much to fear as the Irish have experienced.

Scotland being in the UK had the benefit of devaluation like the rest of us. To the rest of the world British made things and British property has already crashed, the only things that haven't crashed are things the UK doesn't produce and to us these look more expensive, whilst to people holding foreign currency the price is the same.

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That one cracks me up, look at the brochure, they've parked 3 cars randomly on the lawn.. I mean, move them before taking the pics, it's not like you're trying to sell a house on a council estate.

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This is very interesting, regarding timing: Their peak was in 2006, and in the last 12 months prices in Dublin declined 25% - in the 4th year of the bursting phase! Later than I would expect. Perhaps the bursting was held back for a while by government policies, like here?

Another surprise: House prices there still are very high. Aren't these prices still higher than our average house price?

Peak: € 311,078 = £260,278

Now: € 201,364 = £168,487

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Another surprise: House prices there still are very high. Aren't these prices still higher than our average house price?

Peak: € 311,078 = £260,278

Now: € 201,364 = £168,487

They have to thank the Euro for that.

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This is very interesting, regarding timing: Their peak was in 2006, and in the last 12 months prices in Dublin declined 25% - in the 4th year of the bursting phase! Later than I would expect. Perhaps the bursting was held back for a while by government policies, like here?

Another surprise: House prices there still are very high. Aren't these prices still higher than our average house price?

Peak: € 311,078 = £260,278

Now: € 201,364 = £168,487

Seems there was a hell of a lot of owner denial accompanied by low interest rates allowing people to hang on in there for longer, in the RoI.

The fall has been forced by the economy really hitting the buffers. The Irish banking system is absolutely knackered and has had to be bailed out at massive expense by the Irish taxpayer, there are lots of job losses in the private sector and the public sector is now subject to sharp cuts. Coupled with massive oversupply of new builds, that means that the crazy prices had to fall.

So far, the UK seems to be cruising along on the back of devaluation of sterling coupled with lower resulting price inflation than you might have expected. I suspect things will come to a head there too but the 'easy options' taken will have provided a buffer zone.

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(...)

Weird situation I think. I still think interest rates/unemployment need to go up a lot to get a big percentage drop in UK in areas other than flats and less attractive areas. Bit like Waiting for Godot the HPC. Government/banks have also learned their lessons about the impact of repossession.

It is! Exactly!

( That play has become my worst nightmare. :( )

Regards,

"Tired of Waiting" !

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Seems there was a hell of a lot of owner denial accompanied by low interest rates allowing people to hang on in there for longer, in the RoI.

The fall has been forced by the economy really hitting the buffers. The Irish banking system is absolutely knackered and has had to be bailed out at massive expense by the Irish taxpayer, there are lots of job losses in the private sector and the public sector is now subject to sharp cuts. Coupled with massive oversupply of new builds, that means that the crazy prices had to fall.

So far, the UK seems to be cruising along on the back of devaluation of sterling coupled with lower resulting price inflation than you might have expected. I suspect things will come to a head there too but the 'easy options' taken will have provided a buffer zone.

Very good point. I forgot about that. Measured in Euros or Dollars, or most other currencies, we had already a big crash over here, UK. It's just been partially masked by the fall in sterling.

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Very good point. I forgot about that. Measured in Euros or Dollars, or most other currencies, we had already a big crash over here, UK. It's just been partially masked by the fall in sterling.

Thats a bit of a big miss for an economist isnt it :blink:

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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