libitina Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Seasonal adjustment Fluctuations in economic time series are caused by seasonal, cyclical and irregular movements. A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Seasonal movements are defined as those which are caused by regular annual events such as climate, holidays, vacation periods and cycles related to crops, production and retail sales associated with Christmas and Easter. It should be noted, however, that seasonally adjusted series contain irregular as well as longer-term cyclical fluctuations. http://www.economics.gov.nf.ca/mnGlossary.asp#s So in other words they're massaging the figures to show what they want to portray? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 So in other words they're massaging the figures to show what they want to portray?<{POST_SNAPBACK}> No, some businesses sell shedloads of stuff before Christmas - and nothing in January. If you looked at their January figures in isolation, you would think they were going bust. Likewise houses. Who is out house-hunting in December? Surely seasonal adjustment is just common sense - but, like any figures, can be distorted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libitina Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 No, some businesses sell shedloads of stuff before Christmas - and nothing in January. If you looked at their January figures in isolation, you would think they were going bust.Likewise houses. Who is out house-hunting in December? Surely seasonal adjustment is just common sense - but, like any figures, can be distorted. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> But don't they do the figuers YOY too? So every January would be the same? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 There was some technical analysis of the Nationwide SA figures in this C4 thread a few months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libitina Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 There was some technical analysis of the Nationwide SA figures in this C4 thread a few months ago.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.