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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-Gold-Pointing-to-Lehman-cnbc-134824876.html;_ylt=Ajd2Qrxy9.ej5FhZeOipk8u7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1czJjYjFvBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpc2dvbGRwb2ludGk-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5

Is Gold Pointing to Lehman Mark II?
On Thursday July 29, 2010, 10:28 am EDT
Gold and oil prices are flashing warning signals
that this summer may look more like the summer before the collapse of Lehman Brothers than the one that preceded the onset of the crisis in 2007, according to Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon.
"The leading indicator of investor sentiment in both 2007 and 2008 was the price of gold," Derrick wrote in recent research.
In mid-August 2007, gold stood at a "relatively modest" $650 a troy once. But, after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cutting later that month, it began a rally that saw it add 58 percent to its price by March 2008, he added. Gold hit its peak price of $1030 on March 17 2008, Derrick said.
Oil prices continued to rally into the summer of 2008 despite losses for gold, which stood at $680 in October 08, just a month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"
In light of this we find the recent weakness seen in the price of gold particularly telling," Derrick wrote.
"Although it is tempting to say that much of the 7.7 percent slide seen in the price since June 21st has been driven by the supposed rehabilitation of the euro as a credible store of value, this doesn't really fit with the available facts," according to Derrick.
He believes it is telling that with the exception of June 21st, the day that
China changed its currency policy, falls in the price of gold have come
after the publication of uninspiring US economic data.
"The current decline in the price is down to deterioration in sentiment about the economic outlook (and the threat of rising deflationary pressures) rather than a reflection of greater optimism about the standing of the euro," Derrick wrote.
Demand for gold from India fell by 30 percent last year and could fall by as much as 40 percent next year
if the Bombay Bullion Association is to be believed, Derrick said.
"All this comes at a time when the
technical picture for gold is sending some very clear warning signals
. Most notably, a series of lower highs on our favored momentum indicator since the fourth quarter of last year speaks of a longer term trend that is looking increasingly tired," he added.
"With the oil price flashing a similar warning, it seems we are getting closer to answering the question whether this feels more like the summer of 2008 or that of 2007. On the basis of the current evidence it seems like July of 2008 provides a better fit," Derrick wrote.

Might offer some good buying opportunities as the dips start rolling in. This article is definitely a contrary signal for buying. There is still a lot of pent up demand and there is a shortage of supply which will keep gold prices moving up. If there is any move in the other direction the price will definitely plateau before moving up again. And what does anyone with the name "Derrick" know anyway.

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Might offer some good buying opportunities as the dips start rolling in. This article is definitely a contrary signal for buying. There is still a lot of pent up demand and there is a shortage of supply which will keep gold prices moving up. If there is any move in the other direction the price will definitely plateau before moving up again. And what does anyone with the name "Derrick" know anyway.

Wasn't it only yesterday when you were saying gold was tanking in sterling?

A bit like moneyweek aren't you? Tip all the selections in a race and one will win and prove you right.

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Wasn't it only yesterday when you were saying gold was tanking in sterling?

A bit like moneyweek aren't you? Tip all the selections in a race and one will win and prove you right.

No, I just said that after one day of selling of no one was buying the usual dip and it fell again the next day, albeit not by much. I think that is what the article is saying. The tops are shrinking somewhat which technical people see as a Lehman 2 brewing.

Someone did say that gold had tanked 17% vs. Sterling which is, as the fly said as it crawled across the mirror, one way of looking at it.

My OP really summed up what gold bugs always say when an article comes out that suggests the price of gold could go down.

All tongue in cheek, of course.

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No, I just said that after one day of selling of no one was buying the usual dip and it fell again the next day, albeit not by much. I think that is what the article is saying. The tops are shrinking somewhat which technical people see as a Lehman 2 brewing.

Someone did say that gold had tanked 17% vs. Sterling which is, as the fly said as it crawled across the mirror, one way of looking at it.

My OP really summed up what gold bugs always say when an article comes out that suggests the price of gold could go down.

All tongue in cheek, of course.

OK.

Anyway well done on your 20% drops by Christmas being proved correct today. That Brighton bungalow is obviously a more reliable indicator than the house price indices. I'm sure everyone on here will agree.

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Guest spp

Yet another anti Gold thread from RB! :lol:

Does he have anything better to do with his time??

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Dont be fooled into selling Gold or Silver. Realist bear has been rubbishing gold since I can remmember and has been consistantly wrong every time. Fiat currencies are rapidly failing and depreciating against gold. Buy on the dips!

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-Gold-Pointing-to-Lehman-cnbc-134824876.html;_ylt=Ajd2Qrxy9.ej5FhZeOipk8u7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1czJjYjFvBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpc2dvbGRwb2ludGk-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5

Is Gold Pointing to Lehman Mark II?
On Thursday July 29, 2010, 10:28 am EDT
Gold and oil prices are flashing warning signals
that this summer may look more like the summer before the collapse of Lehman Brothers than the one that preceded the onset of the crisis in 2007, according to Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon.
"The leading indicator of investor sentiment in both 2007 and 2008 was the price of gold," Derrick wrote in recent research.
In mid-August 2007, gold stood at a "relatively modest" $650 a troy once. But, after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cutting later that month, it began a rally that saw it add 58 percent to its price by March 2008, he added. Gold hit its peak price of $1030 on March 17 2008, Derrick said.
Oil prices continued to rally into the summer of 2008 despite losses for gold, which stood at $680 in October 08, just a month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"
In light of this we find the recent weakness seen in the price of gold particularly telling," Derrick wrote.
"Although it is tempting to say that much of the 7.7 percent slide seen in the price since June 21st has been driven by the supposed rehabilitation of the euro as a credible store of value, this doesn't really fit with the available facts," according to Derrick.
He believes it is telling that with the exception of June 21st, the day that
China changed its currency policy, falls in the price of gold have come
after the publication of uninspiring US economic data.
"The current decline in the price is down to deterioration in sentiment about the economic outlook (and the threat of rising deflationary pressures) rather than a reflection of greater optimism about the standing of the euro," Derrick wrote.
Demand for gold from India fell by 30 percent last year and could fall by as much as 40 percent next year
if the Bombay Bullion Association is to be believed, Derrick said.
"All this comes at a time when the
technical picture for gold is sending some very clear warning signals
. Most notably, a series of lower highs on our favored momentum indicator since the fourth quarter of last year speaks of a longer term trend that is looking increasingly tired," he added.
"With the oil price flashing a similar warning, it seems we are getting closer to answering the question whether this feels more like the summer of 2008 or that of 2007. On the basis of the current evidence it seems like July of 2008 provides a better fit," Derrick wrote.

Might offer some good buying opportunities as the dips start rolling in. This article is definitely a contrary signal for buying. There is still a lot of pent up demand and there is a shortage of supply which will keep gold prices moving up. If there is any move in the other direction the price will definitely plateau before moving up again. And what does anyone with the name "Derrick" know anyway.

If you believe gold is an international currency then you should be converting your bits of paper into it while the crooks on comex and the LMBA keep it down. The only thing flashing red I can see is all the states in the US and Europe preparing to default. Bernanke recently stated he had no clue why gold is going up in price. His words were "gold's doing its own thing". Funny how they dismiss gold, but covert it and keep it secured in maximum security vaults, and also offer to keep others gold in their vaults free of charge. How noble of them.

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OK.

Anyway well done on your 20% drops by Christmas being proved correct today. That Brighton bungalow is obviously a more reliable indicator than the house price indices. I'm sure everyone on here will agree.

Well, we are 10% down so far in East Sussex, the heart of HPI stronghold. Brighton was perhaps, next to London, the most frenzied market in England. To see prices drop so fast in the last couple of months is the fulfilment of many a prophetic voice! The generic "bungalow" is the typical property around here and the best gauge of overall values. A few months ago and no drops at all--in fact a few slight increases as there were so few properties for sale. Then came the late Spring flood which is continuing to grown as the fear spreads (I do my bit around the area spreading doom and gloom wherever I tread).

I understand the drops to be far bigger north of Watford?

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Dont be fooled into selling Gold or Silver. Realist bear has been rubbishing gold since I can remmember and has been consistantly wrong every time. Fiat currencies are rapidly failing and depreciating against gold. Buy on the dips!

Gold will never replace currencies--too many transactions and the internet could not cope. Its all relative. If all the fiat currencies drop together the fiat has dropped and all remains the same. The fiat for gold and silver can also drop as history shows.

Some dips portend a crash. Remember the last three gold crashes? Buying on the first 20 or so dips would have been lethal. Falling knives and all that.

Unless, of course, gold is a one-way bet and then it is safe to buy all the dips. The new paradigm perhaps?

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Well, we are 10% down so far in East Sussex, the heart of HPI stronghold. Brighton was perhaps, next to London, the most frenzied market in England. To see prices drop so fast in the last couple of months is the fulfilment of many a prophetic voice! The generic "bungalow" is the typical property around here and the best gauge of overall values. A few months ago and no drops at all--in fact a few slight increases as there were so few properties for sale. Then came the late Spring flood which is continuing to grown as the fear spreads (I do my bit around the area spreading doom and gloom wherever I tread).

I understand the drops to be far bigger north of Watford?

All you have seen is a drop in asking price of one unsold property..That does not mean 10% drops.....it is getting laughable!

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Gold will never replace currencies--too many transactions and the internet could not cope. Its all relative. If all the fiat currencies drop together the fiat has dropped and all remains the same. The fiat for gold and silver can also drop as history shows.

Some dips portend a crash. Remember the last three gold crashes? Buying on the first 20 or so dips would have been lethal. Falling knives and all that.

Unless, of course, gold is a one-way bet and then it is safe to buy all the dips. The new paradigm perhaps?

Gold will cease to be a good investment when interest rates become positive. The last time they stopped the gold bull it took interest rates above 15% to do it. What do you think the interest rate would have to be now to get interest rates positive? 5? 6? 10? Remember, they are 0.5% now.

The gold has a long way to run. Of course the gold bull was never meant to be ridden by feckless, nervous nellies most investors are these days.

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All you have seen is a drop in asking price of one unsold property..That does not mean 10% drops.....it is getting laughable!

I have been given notice to leave my rental as it sold almost immediately at 250k. It was on for 280 last year.

The LL wanted 280 this year but the EA said she would have to drop it below the 250 tax threshold to sell it. The EA is a realist like me and said I should wait until winter as they will be down a lot more then.

That was not a theoretical drop--it happened. I am seeing several such properties every day come through my email with similar drops. The asking prices are dropping--which means the offer will also be lower. Its blindingly obvious--I am afraid the bulls have lost--sorry.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-Gold-Pointing-to-Lehman-cnbc-134824876.html;_ylt=Ajd2Qrxy9.ej5FhZeOipk8u7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1czJjYjFvBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpc2dvbGRwb2ludGk-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5

Is Gold Pointing to Lehman Mark II?
On Thursday July 29, 2010, 10:28 am EDT
Gold and oil prices are flashing warning signals
that this summer may look more like the summer before the collapse of Lehman Brothers than the one that preceded the onset of the crisis in 2007, according to Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon.
"The leading indicator of investor sentiment in both 2007 and 2008 was the price of gold," Derrick wrote in recent research.
In mid-August 2007, gold stood at a "relatively modest" $650 a troy once. But, after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cutting later that month, it began a rally that saw it add 58 percent to its price by March 2008, he added. Gold hit its peak price of $1030 on March 17 2008, Derrick said.
Oil prices continued to rally into the summer of 2008 despite losses for gold, which stood at $680 in October 08, just a month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"
In light of this we find the recent weakness seen in the price of gold particularly telling," Derrick wrote.
"Although it is tempting to say that much of the 7.7 percent slide seen in the price since June 21st has been driven by the supposed rehabilitation of the euro as a credible store of value, this doesn't really fit with the available facts," according to Derrick.
He believes it is telling that with the exception of June 21st, the day that
China changed its currency policy, falls in the price of gold have come
after the publication of uninspiring US economic data.
"The current decline in the price is down to deterioration in sentiment about the economic outlook (and the threat of rising deflationary pressures) rather than a reflection of greater optimism about the standing of the euro," Derrick wrote.
Demand for gold from India fell by 30 percent last year and could fall by as much as 40 percent next year
if the Bombay Bullion Association is to be believed, Derrick said.
"All this comes at a time when the
technical picture for gold is sending some very clear warning signals
. Most notably, a series of lower highs on our favored momentum indicator since the fourth quarter of last year speaks of a longer term trend that is looking increasingly tired," he added.
"With the oil price flashing a similar warning, it seems we are getting closer to answering the question whether this feels more like the summer of 2008 or that of 2007. On the basis of the current evidence it seems like July of 2008 provides a better fit," Derrick wrote.

Might offer some good buying opportunities as the dips start rolling in. This article is definitely a contrary signal for buying. There is still a lot of pent up demand and there is a shortage of supply which will keep gold prices moving up. If there is any move in the other direction the price will definitely plateau before moving up again. And what does anyone with the name "Derrick" know anyway.

Wait, wait - are you saying buy gold?

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I have been given notice to leave my rental as it sold almost immediately at 250k. It was on for 280 last year.

The LL wanted 280 this year but the EA said she would have to drop it below the 250 tax threshold to sell it. The EA is a realist like me and said I should wait until winter as they will be down a lot more then.

That was not a theoretical drop--it happened. I am seeing several such properties every day come through my email with similar drops. The asking prices are dropping--which means the offer will also be lower. Its blindingly obvious--I am afraid the bulls have lost--sorry.

Please do not call me a bull...i am more bearish than you.

The £280k that the property was on at last year was an ASKING PRICE, it does not necessarily reflect the true market value of the property. Actually, the fact that it did not sell last year at £280k should tell you all you need to know!

When I sold 18 months ago, we had 3 valuations which varied from £195 to £220. I went with the lowest, and it still took a while to sell at the bottom of the market. If I had gone with the highest, it could still be on at the same price, but it does not mean that it was worth that amount, and I could not extrapolate a percentage drop from a spurious asking price to a final selling price. The best indeces that we have are the Haliwide and Land Registry and they are the only real way we can judge the market...........

Your bizarre assertions about price drops are totally unsubstantiated and at best would be better off in the anecdotals forum. Meanwhile can I suggest you consider a name change to Confusedbear or something similar.

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If you believe gold is an international currency then you should be converting your bits of paper into it while the crooks on comex and the LMBA keep it down. The only thing flashing red I can see is all the states in the US and Europe preparing to default. Bernanke recently stated he had no clue why gold is going up in price. His words were "gold's doing its own thing". Funny how they dismiss gold, but covert it and keep it secured in maximum security vaults, and also offer to keep others gold in their vaults free of charge. How noble of them.

Indeed.

Just wait for the next big bubble to burst...Sovereign Debt!

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Please do not call me a bull...i am more bearish than you.

The £280k that the property was on at last year was an ASKING PRICE, it does not necessarily reflect the true market value of the property. Actually, the fact that it did not sell last year at £280k should tell you all you need to know!

When I sold 18 months ago, we had 3 valuations which varied from £195 to £220. I went with the lowest, and it still took a while to sell at the bottom of the market. If I had gone with the highest, it could still be on at the same price, but it does not mean that it was worth that amount, and I could not extrapolate a percentage drop from a spurious asking price to a final selling price. The best indeces that we have are the Haliwide and Land Registry and they are the only real way we can judge the market...........

Your bizarre assertions about price drops are totally unsubstantiated and at best would be better off in the anecdotals forum. Meanwhile can I suggest you consider a name change to Confusedbear or something similar.

Reality arrives in my email box every day. Price cuts of around 10%.

To use your approach HPI is still in the 100's of %. My LL paid, lets say, about 70k for the house that just sold for 250k. Bought around 1970.

The LR use data based on actual selling price compared with price paid. Let's say Nigel and Timmy buy a house in 2007 for 400k and spend 200k on a new kitchen and bathroom. They sell in 2010 for 500k. It looks like HPI at 20%. But the reality is far different.

Bottom line: you need to have an idea of what the average market price is for a given area and measure the drop in that average. Around here the average 3BR sold for the high 200's. They now sell for the mid 200's. The US method is a better guide--drops in medians.

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Gold will never replace currencies--too many transactions and the internet could not cope. Its all relative. If all the fiat currencies drop together the fiat has dropped and all remains the same. The fiat for gold and silver can also drop as history shows.

Some dips portend a crash. Remember the last three gold crashes? Buying on the first 20 or so dips would have been lethal. Falling knives and all that.

Unless, of course, gold is a one-way bet and then it is safe to buy all the dips. The new paradigm perhaps?

really

thats a line from the bankers

not that i think gold is the answer - competing currencies are already being used - this will grow and the paper promises of the bankers and government will become worth a lot less - its always been the case if anyone can be bothered to check out some history

i am sure Goldman will make more money than most when paper currencies collapse

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All you have seen is a drop in asking price of one unsold property..That does not mean 10% drops.....it is getting laughable!

I can't believe people are still doubting RB's now proven 20% drops by Christmas. That bungalow is a bellwether it's not just any bungalow.

The doubters should just admit they were wrong and eat their humble pie.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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