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Freelance Mycophagist

Hometrack Vs Nationwide Vs Halifax

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Can someone help me out with this one, please? I came across the following historical excerpt from The Times:

The Times

FRI 04 MAY 1990

The end of house price inflation

HOUSE price inflation has finally ended nationally, nearly two years after the market peaked, with the latest figures from the Halifax Building Society yesterday showing that the annual rate at the end of April was minus 0.2 per cent. It is the firs...

Now, we all know that the Hometrack index has been negative for two months now, with Wrigglesforallhe'sworth proclaiming better accuracy than the other two indices. This is, as I understand it, because they directly canvass estate agents and get an idea of what's 'happening on the ground'.

Am I correct in saying that the Nationwide / Halifax indices are based on mortgage approvals / completions (don't know which, respectively) and will therefore lag what is happening 'at the coalface' (Hometrack). If so, then this should be by three months or so.

So, where am I going with this? Well, if the Halifax index does lag Hometrack by three months or so, then it will go negative soon i.e. 14 months after the peak. For those concerned at the slow pace of the crash, this will be ten months faster than the previous crash! In turn, could this 'increased momentum' be an indication of a more serious downturn than last time?

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In turn, could this 'increased momentum' be an indication of a more serious downturn than last time?

It might not necessarily be a more serious downturn this time, but without high inflation to mask real falls, it could well appear more serious to the financially unsophisticated who, in the early 1990s, would have suffered from 'money illusion'.

Edited by doogie

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Hometrack also try to get the agents to match like for like (allegedly), not just average everything sold in broad ranges.

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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