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Tired of Waiting

Kensington And Chelsea: Asking Price -5.2% In One Month

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Rightmove House (Asking) Price Index July 2010

Biggest fall: Kensington and Chelsea: -5.2% in one month.

( "Location :lol: location :lol: location :lol: " )

Better informed sellers? And buyers too? = better informed market, forecasting what is coming? (On page 8.)

LINK: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2010/07/july-2010.pdf

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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hard to say what's going on there.

thoughts might include:

(1) K&C has experienced a mini-bubble recently... according to LR selling prices this spring were the highest ever, genuinely above 2007/2008 [unlike london as a whole where, despite the hype, they stubbornly remained 5% or so below]... and, other things being equal, the bigger they are the harder they fall...

(2) London does tend to 'lead the way' in house price inflation... e.g. a couple of years either side of the milennium was the period when london HPI was at its peak [a time when the rest of the UK pwoperdee was barely out of the 90s 'doldrums'], but then london pwoperdee was barely keeping up with general inflation between about mid 2003 and mid 2005 when other parts of britain were, ahem, 'roaring'.

(3) it's only asking prices, and a very small sample, so could be a load of rubbish anyway.

Edited by the flying pig

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hard to say what's going on there.

thoughts might include:

(1) K&C has experienced a mini-bubble recently... according to LR selling prices this spring were the highest ever, genuinely above 2007/2008 [unlike london as a whole where, despite the hype, they stubbornly remained 5% or so below]... and, other things being equal, the bigger they are the harder they fall...

(2) London does tend to 'lead the way' in house price inflation... e.g. a couple of years either side of the milennium was the period when london HPI was at its peak [a time when the rest of the UK pwoperdee was barely out of the 90s 'doldrums'], but then london pwoperdee was barely keeping up with general inflation between about mid 2003 and mid 2005 when other parts of britain were, ahem, 'roaring'.

(3) it's only asking prices, and a very small sample, so could be a load of rubbish anyway.

Yes, all good points, I agree.

It could be also due to sterling recovering a little recently, and reducing the motivation for foreign buyers - plenty there, allegedly.

But I think the main reason is that all the factors that will push prices down didn't actually happen yet, but will happen for sure (gov. budget cuts, in including HB and public sector salaries, eventual raise of IRs, etc.). Therefore, any reasonably well informed seller will want to sell ASAP, and any reasonably well informed buyer will wait, unless tempted by a good discount. And this neighbourhood should have a share of better informed people a little higher than the rest of the country.

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Watch K&C around oct/nov, that's when most bankers' bonus pools get allocated.

Meaningful reductions in asking prices around that time would be a clear indication that the fear phase is setting in ;)

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K&C is an unsinkable ship. (Like the Titanic, unsinkable!)

K&C, is bullet proof, uncrashable, invincible.

Ha, I watch with interest.

Edited by Money Spinner

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Watch K&C around oct/nov, that's when most bankers' bonus pools get allocated.

Meaningful reductions in asking prices around that time would be a clear indication that the fear phase is setting in ;)

Good point. I'll try to keep that in mind until then. Cheers.

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Rightmove House (Asking) Price Index July 2010

Biggest fall: Kensington and Chelsea: -5.2% in one month.

( "Location :lol: location :lol: location :lol: " )

Better informed sellers? And buyers too? = better informed market, forecasting what is coming? (On page 8.)

LINK: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2010/07/july-2010.pdf

.

Isn't it "AMAZING" what a government cap of housing benefit will do.....

Leveraged BTL landlords in those "Affluent" areas are headed for the hills! The price drop, just shows the cost to society of having more kids than can be housed by your local council is seen as a massive benefit! Not just to you...but to your local economy/school.

Personally I think it is still set way to high....If you haven't worked for YEARS... Then there is no reason you shouldn't live somewhere very picturesque! Think of "Less Stress" and wide open spaces for your kids!

There are some very lovely spots in areas at the **** end of nowhere where you can't exploit the black economy and fiddle the benefits system while you work "Cash In Hand".

What ever next..."OFSTEAD" reports that schools in formerly deprived areas of London are now shinning examples to the rest of the UK and teaching costs/sick days have fallen like a rock.....GO FIGURE!

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Isn't it "AMAZING" what a government cap of housing benefit will do.....

Leveraged BTL landlords in those "Affluent" areas are headed for the hills! The price drop, just shows the cost to society of having more kids than can be housed by your local council is seen as a massive benefit! Not just to you...but to your local economy/school.

Personally I think it is still set way to high....If you haven't worked for YEARS... Then there is no reason you shouldn't live somewhere very picturesque! Think of "Less Stress" and wide open spaces for your kids!

There are some very lovely spots in areas at the **** end of nowhere where you can't exploit the black economy and fiddle the benefits system while you work "Cash In Hand".

What ever next..."OFSTEAD" reports that schools in formerly deprived areas of London are now shinning examples to the rest of the UK and teaching costs/sick days have fallen like a rock.....GO FIGURE!

Yes, the planned reductions in Housing Benefits, particularly the caps on it, may have affect this area.

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Yes, all good points, I agree.

It could be also due to sterling recovering a little recently, and reducing the motivation for foreign buyers - plenty there, allegedly.

But I think the main reason is that all the factors that will push prices down didn't actually happen yet, but will happen for sure (gov. budget cuts, in including HB and public sector salaries, eventual raise of IRs, etc.). Therefore, any reasonably well informed seller will want to sell ASAP, and any reasonably well informed buyer will wait, unless tempted by a good discount. And this neighbourhood should have a share of better informed people a little higher than the rest of the country.

Agreed. This is 'where it happens first' .House price rises early 2009 started here. The falls are now starting here too. Looking at what's going on in my watch areas (Sussex and Kent) the daily drops on Rightmove are quite noticeable now.

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Agreed. This is 'where it happens first' .House price rises early 2009 started here. The falls are now starting here too. Looking at what's going on in my watch areas (Sussex and Kent) the daily drops on Rightmove are quite noticeable now.

Exactly.

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I lived in West Kensington for years (Hammersmith and Fulham) which is K&C's poor cousin. K&C is a micro market that is pretty much disconnected from the rest of the UK housing market. IMO the real bubble areas in London are the SW middle class boroughs (Hammersmith & Fulham, Wandsworth, Richmond, Kingston) and inner London boroughs like Camden and Islington. As Britain adjusts to being a poorer country with lower standards of living, it is these kind of areas (and the other smarter areas of Greater London, and the home counties) that will have the most dramatic falls (in real terms at least). The bottom end of these markets have little support, and like all ponzi schemes that start to run out of mugs, it will be the catalyst for the coming crash.

Edited by Constable

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I lived in West Kensington for years (Hammersmith and Fulham) which is K&C's poor cousin. K&C is a micro market that is pretty much disconnected from the rest of the UK housing market. IMO the real bubble areas in London are the SW middle class boroughs (Hammersmith & Fulham, Wandsworth, Richmond, Kingston) and inner London boroughs like Camden and Islington. As Britain adjusts to being a poorer country with lower standards of living, it is these kind of areas (and the other smarter areas of Greater London, and the home counties) that will have the most dramatic falls (in real terms at least). The bottom end of these markets have little support, and like all ponzi schemes that start to run out of mugs, it will be the catalyst for the coming crash.

I remember reading that in recessions, the products/companies that "survive" best are those that are more necessary and cheaper. Superfluous things suffer most. That makes sense. I think a similar thing will happen with the housing market. The top of the market will fall more. The reason being: It is frothier at the top!

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Isn't it "AMAZING" what a government cap of housing benefit will do.....

Leveraged BTL landlords in those "Affluent" areas are headed for the hills! The price drop, just shows the cost to society of having more kids than can be housed by your local council is seen as a massive benefit! Not just to you...but to your local economy/school.

Personally I think it is still set way to high....If you haven't worked for YEARS... Then there is no reason you shouldn't live somewhere very picturesque! Think of "Less Stress" and wide open spaces for your kids!

There are some very lovely spots in areas at the **** end of nowhere where you can't exploit the black economy and fiddle the benefits system while you work "Cash In Hand".

What ever next..."OFSTEAD" reports that schools in formerly deprived areas of London are now shinning examples to the rest of the UK and teaching costs/sick days have fallen like a rock.....GO FIGURE!

I have a nagging doubt that this could be close to the truth, however (playing devil's advocate) what if the large fall here was due to a greater proportion of (cheaper) rental properties coming on the market pushing the average down (as I understand it RM is not mix adjusted)?

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I have a nagging doubt that this could be close to the truth, however (playing devil's advocate) what if the large fall here was due to a greater proportion of (cheaper) rental properties coming on the market pushing the average down (as I understand it RM is not mix adjusted)?

Yes, that makes sense too. It could be another factor.

It is probably a bit of all of the above.

The good news is that it kils the silly argument that expensive areas never crash. :rolleyes:

Actually, I am convinced that it is exactly the opposite : Markets are always frothier at the top!

B)

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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