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A Simple Arguement To Shut Up The House Bulls

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while i sift through all the economic stats that come out, and read all the articules about house prices, from the bulls to the bears. the ups and down of percentage points over the months, the mortgage figures ,the ratio to earnings , the interest rate analysis, etc etc.. i am getting bored with it all.

the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer.

forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer.

now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.

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while i sift through all the economic stats that come out, and read all the articules about house prices, from the bulls to the bears. the ups and down of percentage points over the months, the mortgage figures ,the ratio to earnings , the interest rate analysis, etc etc.. i am getting bored with it all.

the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer.

forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer.

now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.

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so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.

...they can't ...it's the current HPs which will fall to assist the adjustment in this age of austerity... :rolleyes:

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Problem is that it's a slow process. People are happy to see their properties sitting for sale online for years. Sure that'll change a little when the job situation gets worse, but without IR rises, it's going to be a painfully slow wait.

There's a house (brand new and very nice) which was bought two years ago - owner never moved into it and has been trying to sell it for peak price for 2 years! They could have had about 15-20,000 in rent if they'd rented it over that time, but they're obviously keeping it fresh and waiting for the market to go back up <_<

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while i sift through all the economic stats that come out, and read all the articules about house prices, from the bulls to the bears. the ups and down of percentage points over the months, the mortgage figures ,the ratio to earnings , the interest rate analysis, etc etc.. i am getting bored with it all.

the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer.

forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer.

now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.

Just because people get poorer doesn't (unfortunately) mean that house prices will fall: as most of us get poorer than, if the last few years are anything to go by, the rich will probably get much richer and its just as possible that property ownership will become more concentrated, without any noticeable falls in price: don't forget if more people can't buy, more people have to rent: the housing market has been rigged for years now, I see no reason why it can't be rigged again by forcing people (via lower real wages and mortgage scarcity) into rental and creating a BTL'rs paradise...or in other words by the logical extension of the situation thats been developing for a long time, the commoditisation of property..property as a trading commodity for the rich and large companies.

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while i sift through all the economic stats that come out, and read all the articules about house prices, from the bulls to the bears. the ups and down of percentage points over the months, the mortgage figures ,the ratio to earnings , the interest rate analysis, etc etc.. i am getting bored with it all.

the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer.

forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer.

now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.

Just because people get poorer doesn't (unfortunately) mean that house prices will fall: as most of us get poorer than, if the last few years are anything to go by, the rich will probably get much richer and its just as possible that property ownership will become more concentrated, without any noticeable falls in price: don't forget if more people can't buy, more people have to rent: the housing market has been rigged for years now, I see no reason why it can't be rigged again by forcing people (via lower real wages and mortgage scarcity) into rental and creating a BTL'rs paradise...or in other words by the logical extension of the situation thats been developing for a long time, the commoditisation of property..property as a trading commodity for the rich and large companies.

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Just because people get poorer doesn't (unfortunately) mean that house prices will fall: as most of us get poorer than, if the last few years are anything to go by, the rich will probably get much richer and its just as possible that property ownership will become more concentrated, without any noticeable falls in price: don't forget if more people can't buy, more people have to rent: the housing market has been rigged for years now, I see no reason why it can't be rigged again by forcing people (via lower real wages and mortgage scarcity) into rental and creating a BTL'rs paradise...or in other words by the logical extension of the situation thats been developing for a long time, the commoditisation of property..property as a trading commodity for the rich and large companies.

BTL? if renters cant pay, neither can the BTL.

Debt in the UK, by the way is rising daily.

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BTL? if renters cant pay, neither can the BTL.

Debt in the UK, by the way is rising daily.

They, or housing benefit, can pay if theres no other choice..

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People will borrow as much money as the banks will let them.

6x salary ? Where can we sign ? We MUST have it darling.

What will crash the market is not people being able to buy or being able to afford, but banks refusing to lend people the money to buy.

Ironic that the people won't be bailed out by their own common sense, but by the parasite realising that if it doesn't scale back it will kill the host and itself with it.

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They, or housing benefit, can pay if theres no other choice..

thats been reduced recently.

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People will borrow as much money as the banks will let them.

6x salary ? Where can we sign ? We MUST have it darling.

What will crash the market is not people being able to buy or being able to afford, but banks refusing to lend people the money to buy.

Ironic that the people won't be bailed out by their own common sense, but by the parasite realising that if it doesn't scale back it will kill the host and itself with it.

yes, and it's astonishing to see the terms some will accept, and we're not talking about life-or-death here, just mewing to pi$$ it up a wall on fancy crap.

I deal with people in debt, the other day I saw a loan agreement for a £40k MEW, payable over a term of 30 years at £410/month variable. Thats £150k payable! They hawked their retirements for 40 grand, I simply couldn't believe it. People simply do not understand the concept of a 'liability'.

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thats been reduced recently.

I'm not sure thats that relevant...if you're viewing housing as a commodity you would be looking at what return you get on your investment, even at lower levels of housing benefit the return (assuming there is no mortgage) might still sufficient: I'm not saying I'm right, merely putting forward a possibilty!!

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I'm not sure thats that relevant...if you're viewing housing as a commodity you would be looking at what return you get on your investment, even at lower levels of housing benefit the return (assuming there is no mortgage) might still sufficient: I'm not saying I'm right, merely putting forward a possibilty!!

sure, but I was replying to the point that BTL would collect rent from the social if renters couldnt afford it.

not sure how the social could afford it either if productive economy is getting weaker and weaker.

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sure, but I was replying to the point that BTL would collect rent from the social if renters couldnt afford it.

not sure how the social could afford it either if productive economy is getting weaker and weaker.

I guess it would be the coup de grace...the final transfer of remaining wealth from the middle and working classes to the very rich..

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yes, and it's astonishing to see the terms some will accept, and we're not talking about life-or-death here, just mewing to pi$$ it up a wall on fancy crap.

I deal with people in debt, the other day I saw a loan agreement for a £40k MEW, payable over a term of 30 years at £410/month variable. Thats £150k payable! They hawked their retirements for 40 grand, I simply couldn't believe it. People simply do not understand the concept of a 'liability'.

What I find amazing is the cost people are prepared to pay to have something NOW. It's simply staggering.

Anyway, if you subscribe to the doctrine that people will borrow as much for houses as the banks are willing to let them have, then ultimately the market is dependent on the banks willingness to lend money.

Credit Crunch 2 appears to be approaching. So what Boy George and his cronies do this time will determine the pace of the market. Will they QE ? I believe the Tories are against QE in general, but I think they will cook up some scheme that is effectively equivalent but has a different name. I think if they've got any common sense at all they will target lending to produce a hp reduction, but probably not a crash - maybe a similar situation to 2007/2008. Of course whether they can target that specifically remains to be seen. The markets are more suited to herd mentality than subtle modification.

Interesting article on the front page on credit contraction :D:rolleyes:

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I think houses will get cheaper , however more and more people will still be priced out of the market as their wages are dropping in both the amount of £'s earned and the buying power of those £'s being eroded by other essential cost's going up , food , petrol, travel to work, gas , water , electricity, car insurance. Always seem to go up far more than the imaginary low inflation figures that are rolled out.

The NMW for so many now seems to be the default wage, how does someone on this run a house even if the house was free .

£250,000 house droppes to £100,000 anyone on less than £25,000 is still priced out . Anyone on less is still pi---g in the wind.

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They, or housing benefit, can pay if theres no other choice..

Yes, but what happens when Central or Local Government announce that they will be decreasing the amount of Housing Benefit.

Landlords could kick out their tenants (eventually) but the only new blood they will get will be backed by a Government who will be paying less. So ultimately at the lower end of the market prices of property will fall and have a consequential effect on properties further up the ladder. We have already seen this Government cap Housing Benefit in the last couple of months. The justification will be that as interest rates are so low it seems only right that the return paid to Landlords by the government should be scaled back. There are too many landlords for their to be an effective opposition to such a policy

The pensions time bomb will cost the West more in taxes and either people will voluntary start saving or more likely we will be forced to save all of which will decrease the amount people spend on houses.

One statistic which has been banded around is that 43% of Americans have less than $10,000 saved in the pension’s plans.

In this country many people outside of Final Salary Scheme pensions have little in the way of savings many , too many, will be relying on the equity in their house or inheritance to see them through their final years. And of course thanks to improving medical science the final years are getting longer and longer.

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yes, and it's astonishing to see the terms some will accept, and we're not talking about life-or-death here, just mewing to pi$$ it up a wall on fancy crap.

I deal with people in debt, the other day I saw a loan agreement for a £40k MEW, payable over a term of 30 years at £410/month variable. Thats £150k payable! They hawked their retirements for 40 grand, I simply couldn't believe it. People simply do not understand the concept of a 'liability'.

Thats a 12.6% APR.......nasty, very nasty

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This is my take. Housing benefit will drop (a given) which will force down rents in some areas (not all). Government will work out that it would be cheaper to CP a big lot of greenbelt and build social housing. In fact it would serve two purposes-reduce housing benefit even further and put a few brickies and chippies back to work. We would then have come full circle to when I was a lad and lived in a shoe box owned by the council. We were poor but by God we were miserable.

Better still have people paint em for their benefits.

Edited by tomwatkins

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Now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer.

Just to be contrarian, are we going to get poorer.. or are they going to get richer? ;)

If other countries do continue to grow / develop, we might get a Japanese style carry-trade situation where people borrow GBP at very low interest rates to invest abroad.

That would mean M4 expanding without the need for pumping money in to housing. Our money supply would inflate away to keep the BoE happy. House prices would drop.. we'd get relative domestic price deflation. What could go wrong.

Too bad we're competing with every other country in the western world to have the most attractive currency to "carry".

Edited by libspero

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This is my take. Housing benefit will drop (a given) which will force down rents in some areas (not all). Government will work out that it would be cheaper to CP a big lot of greenbelt and build social housing. In fact it would serve two purposes-reduce housing benefit even further and put a few brickies and chippies back to work. We would then have come full circle to when I was a lad and lived in a shoe box owned by the council. We were poor but by God we were miserable.

Better still have people paint em for their benefits.

I think the Govt will pave over everywhere north of potters bar and West of Reading and then the UK can take off with a really vibrant booming economy driven by superb communication based wealth where time isnt lost trying to understand people with silly accents

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yes, and it's astonishing to see the terms some will accept, and we're not talking about life-or-death here, just mewing to pi$$ it up a wall on fancy crap.

I deal with people in debt, the other day I saw a loan agreement for a £40k MEW, payable over a term of 30 years at £410/month variable. Thats £150k payable! They hawked their retirements for 40 grand, I simply couldn't believe it. People simply do not understand the concept of a 'liability'.

I bet the term "debtors prison" kinda sharpened the mind in Dickens times don't you think?

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the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer.

forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer.

now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.

Judging by your post, i doubt you'll have a very good debate as you are so steadfast in your viewpoint, and seemingly unwilling to accept the inherent uncertainty that the future holds. Try having a conversation without trying to impose your 'predictions' on people and you may find that they are more receptive. Hey, you may even be able to influence them!

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Judging by your post, i doubt you'll have a very good debate as you are so steadfast in your viewpoint, and seemingly unwilling to accept the inherent uncertainty that the future holds. Try having a conversation without trying to impose your 'predictions' on people and you may find that they are more receptive. Hey, you may even be able to influence them!

Err, I thought it was quite a good debate.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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