Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Tired of Waiting

How Fast Are Regional, Local, Hp Crashes?

Recommended Posts

Hello all, I have a question please:

In some regions/areas of the country house prices crashed soon after the 2007 peak. If you live in one of these regions, how fast was that crash?

I am asking because in some regions (like mine) prices didn't crash yet. I think they will, but I don't know how fast. The national average doesn't help much, as it averages out different regional falls.

I am wondering, if the national average can change 10% or more in 1 year, surely some regional prices will have changed much faster than that, right? 20% in one year? More?

And I am not sure we have reliable data for regional changes. Some personal experiences could be useful here.

Thanks,

ToW

Edit: As "munkee" reminded me, the falls also depend on price range - if for FTB or not, etc.

Big edit(s), to make the question more focused on regional falls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted a link to a house over the weekend that just upped its asking price by 3K.

Nothing much happening here. Some occasional 25K drops, one 55K drop, but when the house is 200K over-valued it is nothing. Most are not dropping and if they do they do it minutely - 1 or 2 K on a 3 350K house just indicates to me that if you went in there and even offered 90% of asking price you would be turned down.

Loads coming on the market but loads just sitting there. Some are selling, no idea who is buying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be honest i think it depends on the price range you are looking at as well as the area/region. I am looking in the north east around newcastle and to be honest within my price range I am seeing a lot of falls. Seeing a £5k drop is the norm and I have seen a few £25k+ drops. Relative to what I am looking to pay for even 5k reduction is not bad at all. Since I will be buying with cash seeing a reduction like that is damn perfect.

However with this being said, YES prices are still way above what they should. I went to look around the area where there is a property I'm going to be viewing soon and even though it's price had dropped from £175k to 166k it is still a good 20k over priced, but I expect when turnover is so low in the area the seller doesnt actually know the true price of the house so some good bidding might give me the chance to pick this up with some margin for the future crash.

Edited by munkee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks TMT. Yes, it does look very over priced. Unless it is in an exceptionally good area. Buildings costs are well below £1,000/sq metre. Plus the plot. Unfortunately the estate agency did not include the house's total internal area, nor the plot size. Common problem here in the UK. In the continent they always include these, usually in the subtitle!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen a few new listings coming on with lower asking prices around 4% less plenty of reductions of around 5 - 10% but it's hard to tell of actual falls because you need to be comparing identical properties which is near enough impossible. So in conclusion for my area Chelmsford and surrounds I'd say a definite drop I'm prices but very marginal so far some nice price reductions but also the odd house selling quickly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Edinburgh FTB places are dropping steady and have been for 2+ years, most else is down a bit but not as much. However I would expect these to catch up due to the obvious link.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be honest i think it depends on the price range you are looking at as well as the area/region.

You are absolutely right. I forgot about that. Thanks.

I am looking in the north east around newcastle and to be honest within my price range I am seeing a lot of falls. Seeing a £5k drop is the norm and I have seen a few £25k+ drops. Relative to what I am looking to pay for even 5k reduction is not bad at all. Since I will be buying with cash seeing a reduction like that is damn perfect.

However with this being said, YES prices are still way above what they should. I went to look around the area where there is a property I'm going to be viewing soon and even though it's price had dropped from £175k to 166k it is still a good 20k over priced, but I expect when turnover is so low in the area the seller doesnt actually know the true price of the house so some good bidding might give me the chance to pick this up with some margin for the future crash.

I've know Newcastle a little, and as I heard prices had already crashed there in these past few years, I checked some prices up there, using Rightmove. But in good areas, like Jesmond, prices are still absurdly high. They don't look like "post-crash" prices to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen a few new listings coming on with lower asking prices around 4% less plenty of reductions of around 5 - 10% but it's hard to tell of actual falls because you need to be comparing identical properties which is near enough impossible. So in conclusion for my area Chelmsford and surrounds I'd say a definite drop I'm prices but very marginal so far some nice price reductions but also the odd house selling quickly.

Yes, it is difficult to be sure of regional price changes, to remember prices, etc. We end up using our general "feeling" for it, which is NOT a very precise tool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks TMT. Yes, it does look very over priced. Unless it is in an exceptionally good area. Buildings costs are well below £1,000/sq metre. Plus the plot. Unfortunately the estate agency did not include the house's total internal area, nor the plot size. Common problem here in the UK. In the continent they always include these, usually in the subtitle!

It is on the Gower in a village that has a big turn-over of property. Loads of people comin from London and buying up there usually.

Basically, people fall in love with the area, move there wanting the coutnry lifestyle and have bliss for 18 - 24 months. Then they get fed up with the 15 mile trek to/from work, for a curry, to the cinema, only one pub nearby which is full of farmers and nothing much to do on the long winter evenings. So then the smell of manure gets to them, the £50 each way taxi rides cash up front, and they turn to drink or affairs... or both.. and then they move back to the town.

Great money earner for the local farm boys - they set aside a bit of land, whinge about anyone else who wants to buy land and build, then they build themselves, add 200k or 300K to the build price and it beats farming for a living.

Obviously, I am not saying that this is the case specifically with this property but with the Gower in general IMPO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And then I see this

http://www.rightmove...=&auction=false

Still 110K over-priced IMPO.

That puzzles me that house - as do most of the ones you have posted recently. That one seems to be in the middle of nowhere - it's a family house that, if it were located where I live, would probably be about 450k.

Yet where I live is in the middle of the Thames Valley, 8 miles from Reading (half an hour from Paddington) - close to M3, M4, M25 - and lots of well paid jobs.

All things being equal, I would have thought that house ought to be half what it is priced at now. And, even then, in a sane world that would be expensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know HPC'ers like to dismiss London as 'different' or not relevant but it is quite ridiculous where I am now (NW4)- Hendon. Terraced houses that sold for 270k-280k in 2005-6 with max price 350k at peak 2007 are now on the market for 450k. They may not sell, but someone somewhere is advising that that a 60-70% appreciation in 4 years is an appropriate price range.

Mad mad mad.

Edited by desertorchid

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is on the Gower in a village that has a big turn-over of property. Loads of people comin from London and buying up there usually.

Basically, people fall in love with the area, move there wanting the coutnry lifestyle and have bliss for 18 - 24 months. Then they get fed up with the 15 mile trek to/from work, for a curry, to the cinema, only one pub nearby which is full of farmers and nothing much to do on the long winter evenings. So then the smell of manure gets to them, the £50 each way taxi rides cash up front, and they turn to drink or affairs... or both.. and then they move back to the town.

:lol:

Great money earner for the local farm boys - they set aside a bit of land, whinge about anyone else who wants to buy land and build, then they build themselves, add 200k or 300K to the build price and it beats farming for a living.

Obviously, I am not saying that this is the case specifically with this property but with the Gower in general IMPO.

That is the problem with this crazy planning system. It is criminal. Totally unfair. Big windfalls for people who play the fecking game. :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That puzzles me that house - as do most of the ones you have posted recently. That one seems to be in the middle of nowhere - it's a family house that, if it were located where I live, would probably be about 450k.

Yet where I live is in the middle of the Thames Valley, 8 miles from Reading (half an hour from Paddington) - close to M3, M4, M25 - and lots of well paid jobs.

All things being equal, I would have thought that house ought to be half what it is priced at now. And, even then, in a sane world that would be expensive.

Yes, I totally agree. Welcome to my world.

It is in an area of outstanding natural beauty - no one is going to build a factory or open a pit next to you... but then houses on the Gower have all the of issues mentioned above. Heck, I have known so many couples in love who move there to live the country life and who are divorced 2 or 3 years later... or raging alcoholics... or clinially depressed...

Internet access is stone-age also. No cable companies bothered cabling the Gower and the nearest BT exchanges are so far away that you are actually beyond the viable broadband range for ADSL... plus you have thousands of similar properties all trying to dial in. A GP friend of mine who lives on the Gower just 5 miles outside of the city is forever trying to get broadband but it ain't going to happen.

So this is why I have the angst - in the home counties it would be fair value. In fact, I often look at much 'nicer' properties, IMPO, for such figures in your part of the World.

Have a look at Rightmove for properties for sale within 5 miles of SA2 or SA3 and live my life for a moment! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not sure how helpful this thread will really be, but I'll chip in with my 2c.

I bought in 2005 and 2009, both times I was able to negotiate discounts approx 20% off asking. Goes to show that if you are the right kind of buyer and find someone who needs to sell you can get nice discounts even in boom time.

In each case the owner had bought the place, done it up and then had to move fast for work reasons. The more recent one I ended up paying a tad over what they bought the place for in 2004 except it now has central heating, double glazing, a double garage and 2 more rooms!!

So the point is - if you want a house and have a deposit, just get out there and look. At some point you'll come across a house at a price you are happy to pay and you can get on with your life. I first came to this site in 2003 (under a different name) and was strongly encouraged not to buy but I'm glad I did. I just bought the right house at the right time.

Even when looking at you local area not all houses will sell at the "market rate". Like any investment the trick is to buy at < market rate. Unfortunately most people would rather wait and hope :(?

Best of luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regional hpi by year according to Halifax....1983:2009

http://www.lloydsban...sePriceData.xls

EDIT: Other sheets show by quarter and ftb, foo's splits too.

Thanks hotairmail. That was interesting.

According to that, prices here in the south east fell -17.2% in 2008+2009. The UK average fell 18.4. The biggest fall in England was 21.1, in Greater London. And the smallest was 16.5, in the south west.

I don't get it. Firstly, they are all too similar. And London the greatest falls? It doesn't tally with people's experiences. 17.2% in the south east? And didn't the North crashed first and fastest? I don't get it.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regional hpi by year according to Halifax....1983:2009

http://www.lloydsban...sePriceData.xls

EDIT: Other sheets show by quarter and ftb, foo's splits too.

Interesting ... in my area on that spreadsheet on the All Years worksheet (South East) 2004 = 528.8 and 2009 = 532.1 - so no change between 2004 and 2009

And on the All (SA) Quarters worksheet it shows 2006 Q2 - 562.5 and 2010 Q2 - 565.2 - so, again, no change between 2006 and 2010

So, despite all the tales of huge rises in recent years, in my area (as I have posted a few times by showing links to the data on www.home.co.uk) - prices have been flat for 6 years or more.

Which makes my decision to STR in late 2003 not quite as stupid as one might think.

If interest rates had stayed up, or I'd had the nerve to invest in something (that didn't go down!) - I would be well ahead of the game by now. As it is, I'm about break even I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks hotairmail. That was interesting.

According to that, prices here in the south east fell -17.2% in 2008+2009. The UK average fell 18.4. The biggest fall in England was 21.1, in Greater London. And the smallest was 16.5, in the south west.

I don't get it. Firstly, they are all too similar. And London the greatest falls? It doesn't tally with people's experiences. 17.2% in the south east? And didn't the North crashed first and fastest? I don't get it.

.

I think the stats are a bit misleading. In 2008 - 2009 we went from 7 estate agents to 4 and there was very little on the market and very few sales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I totally agree. Welcome to my world.

It is in an area of outstanding natural beauty - no one is going to build a factory or open a pit next to you... but then houses on the Gower have all the of issues mentioned above. Heck, I have known so many couples in love who move there to live the country life and who are divorced 2 or 3 years later... or raging alcoholics... or clinially depressed...

Internet access is stone-age also. No cable companies bothered cabling the Gower and the nearest BT exchanges are so far away that you are actually beyond the viable broadband range for ADSL... plus you have thousands of similar properties all trying to dial in. A GP friend of mine who lives on the Gower just 5 miles outside of the city is forever trying to get broadband but it ain't going to happen.

So this is why I have the angst - in the home counties it would be fair value. In fact, I often look at much 'nicer' properties, IMPO, for such figures in your part of the World.

Have a look at Rightmove for properties for sale within 5 miles of SA2 or SA3 and live my life for a moment! :D

You are definitely not alone.

We live in the north part of Cheshire, and although we have a nice house now we are "stuck" and can't trade up to the sort of house that we had our sights set on as our next and "final move" when we bought this one. House prices are now totally out of step with where we are, and I think overpriced by about 30% even by current standards. We are constantly having debates with estate agents and sellers that think we are a suburb of London!

My wife and I have been looking for over a year (even though we know it's not the right time to buy... it's just a head v heart thing), and we have found nothing we can afford that makes sense. Where we are, houses are priced in direct comparison with a commuter zone of London. As an exercise we recently did a search of a 40-min radius of London stations, and there were better, cheaper and more houses that we could buy than where we are... stuck between two Northern cities about 5 miles from an industrial town! It's just absolutely bonkers, and totally unjustifiable IMHO.

Unless prices come down by 25% or more I can't see us moving. I believe they will (as per my other post on here) so my head says stay put for now... even though my heart is on the lookout for a new place to live. The galling part is that like many on here we've done everything we could to ensure that we were "protected" and lived within our means. Others we know didn't, got into trouble, and now my taxes are paying the mortgage on their lovely house whilst we can't afford to buy one like it. If we werem't happy and well adjusted it would be enough to drive you to drink!

T.I.M.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(...)

Last time round Gr London was going up solidly year after year ending with 3 years of c20% increases.

This rippled out to East Anglia in the last year of those rises in 1988 to a stunning 43% increase and then a whole year later 43.6% in Yorkshire.

And when the 'crash' came, according to the stats there was nothing to write home about. The max. YOY quarterly change in Gr London was 'only' 11.4%.

The index in this table is probably based on nominal prices. I don't remember the inflation level for those years (should be easy to find thought) but this inflation may explain why the nominal prices went up by much more than down?

So expecting 20% falls and then expecting to perceive it wold be very unlikely imo. After all 20% equates to just 0.05% per day making it very difficult to 'feel' for the human mind.

Yes, I agree with that. Even year by year it is very difficult to be sure of a 10% change in "value" if/when comparing 2 different houses, in 2 different locations.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are definitely not alone.

(...)

and I think overpriced by about 30% even by current standards.

And you are not alone either. :) The magazine "The Economist" agrees with your 30%:

201028fnc795.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have been watching the West Midlands for about four years and when we started we were watching the low end of housing since we only intended to use it for half the year and even then it would only be a "crash pad" for us and family. Just so long as the crime and asbo were good and the place had off road parking we were not too fussy. Even so there was absolutely nothing below 70. Now we have hundreds of your bog standard semis and end of terrace type houses between 50 and 70 and flats are 25 or 30. From our perspective we are in a fully fledged house price crash; so much so that we are now scared of getting a place too quickly and paying too much for it. To be fair the posh areas are not falling so rapidly but lots of houses have been up for auction three and four times and are still no sold. I don't think averages or official statistics are particularly useful. You have to research a particular price range in a particular area to get anything useful.

Birmingham actually offers everything that London does but at a fraction of the price but it doesn't have the kudos. If you or yours tend toward the "all hat and no cattle" type of lifestyle aka mumsnet then the West Midlands is not for you but if you are looking for price and decent ordinary neighbours with no pretencions like we are, then it might be the place to be. Come to think of it that is how Birmingham got started to begin with!

I think that to get good prices you have to get away from the British obsession with houses. You can only sleep in one bed and *iss in one pot and at the end of the day your lifestyle is dictated far more by your neighbours than the price of your curtains. The economy is the ultimate driving force but fashion is usually one step ahead of it so I foresee the abandonment of "our house is better than yours" in favour of " Our house is just like everyone else's". Then, with any luck the British will be more interested in other more productive or meaningful activities and the economy will tag along.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not sure how helpful this thread will really be, but I'll chip in with my 2c.

I bought in 2005 and 2009, both times I was able to negotiate discounts approx 20% off asking. Goes to show that if you are the right kind of buyer and find someone who needs to sell you can get nice discounts even in boom time.

In each case the owner had bought the place, done it up and then had to move fast for work reasons. The more recent one I ended up paying a tad over what they bought the place for in 2004 except it now has central heating, double glazing, a double garage and 2 more rooms!!

So the point is - if you want a house and have a deposit, just get out there and look. At some point you'll come across a house at a price you are happy to pay and you can get on with your life. I first came to this site in 2003 (under a different name) and was strongly encouraged not to buy but I'm glad I did. I just bought the right house at the right time.

Even when looking at you local area not all houses will sell at the "market rate". Like any investment the trick is to buy at < market rate. Unfortunately most people would rather wait and hope :(?

Best of luck.

You sound like an estate agent. Why does getting on with your life mean buying a house ?

How exactly will you 'come across' a house that you like and at a price you are happy to pay ? If everything in the area is massively overvalued (in your opinion) ? Is one just suddenly going to appear 30-50% lower than the others ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here in my part of Cheshire i believe we have been in stagnant /crash mode since 2006..first time buyers disappeared from the market and have not returned.

.I have spoke to ea over this and they all agree the local market has been a lot worse than the national market.. I believe that we are still 20% down from 2006 highs..

I know of at least ten houses round here that are in the fourth year of being on the market having done the rounds of all the agents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.