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Why The Esri Has Got It Wrong

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Another interesting article from McWilliams.

Should governments cut spending rapidly this year and next if the economy is still on its knees?

This debate is raging, not just in Ireland, but around the world. Broadly speaking, the EU and the European Central Bank (ECB) want to cut back government spending quickly, while the Americans are more cautious, wishing to make sure that the economy is strong enough before they start cutting.

All this comes against a background of the world economy turning out to be more fragile than expected and a real worry in the US that there will be a double dip recession.

The data from the US is not reassuring right now – particularly from the housing market, which has been a good leading indicator of how strong any recovery is likely to be.

The latest in a long stream of increasingly powerful signs that the US housing market is plunging headlong into a double dip came in data published last Tuesday. It showed that housing starts in June fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000 units, including both single-family homes (the great majority) and multiunit buildings.

This was 5 per cent below the level for May, of 578,000 starts – which itself had originally been reported as 593,000, but was revised down with the publication of the June data. ...

There's more.

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This is what Paul Krugman, a Nobel prize winner for economics, was getting at when he took the ESRI to task this week, writing that the institute was doling out policy advice based on assertion, rather than persuasive analysis.

Ok how many Nobel prize winning economists knew what they were talking about

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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