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Self-Reinforcement And The Housing Market

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We often refer to the sheeple on here as those who have little or no understanding of the housing market - not like us economic giants! :blink:

As Human Beings we tend to move in groups or tribes of like-minded people for either cultural, racial, national, etc, etc, reasons. Groupings also tend to form of like-minded people. You want to dress up as a Jedi you may look silly walking down the High Street of a Saturday afternoon... but go and do it somewhere with a room full of Star Wars fans and, hey, not so stupid now huh?

Positive Reinforcement - that's what that is.

The internet fora, blogs et al are great for positive reinforcement of all sorts of people. Hence why we have the "Am I being unreasonable" forum over on Mumsnet amongst others. Right-wing nutters in the US who think Obama is part of some Islamic cult can have their wacko views positively reinforced in the numerous forums and chat rooms of the Far Right, etc, etc. You name it and there is a group out there somewhere online where like-minded people will agree and support your every word.

Which brings me to us.

Are we in fact the sheeple? Are we a group of nutters disaffected by missing the housing boom and now all simply hanging around here make each of us feel better?

I suspect not - the economic turmoil of the past 18 months, the collapse in most of the major Western economies of the their housing markets, if not ours, kind of prooves us right... but so far not right with regards to the UK housing market.

It is a healthy thing for individuals, groups and organisations to pause every now and then and wonder if they are simply buying into group-think?

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i seem to remember my early viewing of this site folks saying mid-late 2009 would be the time to buy the low. yet as soon as that time came the goalposts as it were got moved now to 2011-2014. will the posts keep getting moved until the "site" gets it right?

i thought back before interest rates took a huge plunge i was so clever locking in my savings for a year into a 6% account.. and the sheeple were the idiots who hadnt. then i thought about it a few months ago. this was the period when the banks probably knew shit was going to hit the fan and the possibility of a collapse could happen or sterling becomes worthless or mega inflation takes place. not such a clever move having savings in sterling. turned out savings were fine and the £ is ...so it turned out to be the right decesion but lucked into it. cant really claim to be clever with money on that basis can i? well seems to me to be the same situation as happened to alot of people who bought 97-2002 or thereabouts who also claim it to be a brilliant financial decesion.

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We often refer to the sheeple on here as those who have little or no understanding of the housing market - not like us economic giants! :blink:

As Human Beings we tend to move in groups or tribes of like-minded people for either cultural, racial, national, etc, etc, reasons. Groupings also tend to form of like-minded people. You want to dress up as a Jedi you may look silly walking down the High Street of a Saturday afternoon... but go and do it somewhere with a room full of Star Wars fans and, hey, not so stupid now huh?

Positive Reinforcement - that's what that is.

The internet fora, blogs et al are great for positive reinforcement of all sorts of people. Hence why we have the "Am I being unreasonable" forum over on Mumsnet amongst others. Right-wing nutters in the US who think Obama is part of some Islamic cult can have their wacko views positively reinforced in the numerous forums and chat rooms of the Far Right, etc, etc. You name it and there is a group out there somewhere online where like-minded people will agree and support your every word.

Which brings me to us.

Are we in fact the sheeple? Are we a group of nutters disaffected by missing the housing boom and now all simply hanging around here make each of us feel better?

I suspect not - the economic turmoil of the past 18 months, the collapse in most of the major Western economies of the their housing markets, if not ours, kind of prooves us right... but so far not right with regards to the UK housing market.

It is a healthy thing for individuals, groups and organisations to pause every now and then and wonder if they are simply buying into group-think?

I'd say there are those on HPC who suffer from positive feedback syndrome.. maybe also simulated by some deep seated frustration at not having been able to buy a home for whatever reason ( believe it or not if price was the major hurdle then many would have bought.. as likely they are not sufficiently organised, can't make up their minds, aren't bright enough to earn enough, spend too much save are also likely reasons for continued rental).

I have found whenever you say that we might be in for a long term slow correction rather than a very sharp crash.. one gets harrangued by the usual suspects.

Make the point that the majority of loans during the boom period were not "liar" loans and there are those who suffer an abnormally rasied hearbeat.

Point out you cannot in any way rely on the housing stats , even when they point in the direction you want them to and I sense that many just glaze over.

In short there are very many here who clearly cannot think for themselves and clearly believe despite evidence to the contrary that the only possible outcome is a very sharp crash followed by an overcorrection and resultant bargains galore which of course they'll be able to take part in becasue of course financing will be generally available at the bottom of the market, the house of the dreams will suddenly be available and of course the deposit monies will have been save d without breaking sweat.... hand s up dreamers... there are plenty of you out there.

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i seem to remember my early viewing of this site folks saying mid-late 2009 would be the time to buy the low. yet as soon as that time came the goalposts as it were got moved now to 2011-2014. will the posts keep getting moved until the "site" gets it right?

Is it really HPC that keeps moving the goalposts?

People make predictions based upon the prevailing conditions, if a third party keeps changing the rules, is it any surprise the predicitons are wrong?

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Are we in fact the sheeple? Are we a group of nutters disaffected by missing the housing boom and now all simply hanging around here make each of us feel better?

IMO the fact that you are able to make such an enquiring post proves that you are definately not one of the 'sheeple'

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We often refer to the sheeple on here as those who have little or no understanding of the housing market - not like us economic giants! :blink:

As Human Beings we tend to move in groups or tribes of like-minded people for either cultural, racial, national, etc, etc, reasons. Groupings also tend to form of like-minded people. You want to dress up as a Jedi you may look silly walking down the High Street of a Saturday afternoon... but go and do it somewhere with a room full of Star Wars fans and, hey, not so stupid now huh?

Positive Reinforcement - that's what that is.

The internet fora, blogs et al are great for positive reinforcement of all sorts of people. Hence why we have the "Am I being unreasonable" forum over on Mumsnet amongst others. Right-wing nutters in the US who think Obama is part of some Islamic cult can have their wacko views positively reinforced in the numerous forums and chat rooms of the Far Right, etc, etc. You name it and there is a group out there somewhere online where like-minded people will agree and support your every word.

Which brings me to us.

Are we in fact the sheeple? Are we a group of nutters disaffected by missing the housing boom and now all simply hanging around here make each of us feel better?

I suspect not - the economic turmoil of the past 18 months, the collapse in most of the major Western economies of the their housing markets, if not ours, kind of prooves us right... but so far not right with regards to the UK housing market.

It is a healthy thing for individuals, groups and organisations to pause every now and then and wonder if they are simply buying into group-think?

When suffering adversity it is quite easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the hoped for outcome will never be achieved. But this, in my opinion, is a mistake. We are constantly bombarded by the wishes of the masses, expressed through the suitably named mass media. Vested interests do, and will continue to have, disproportionate sway over public sentiment. The outcome is well known to many who post here.Are HPC'ers sheeple? I think not. In fact, the opposite is true. Someone has to take a lead, or at least a stand against the endless drivel and propaganda spouted by our dearly beloved popular press. Personally, I think HPC does that admirably

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When suffering adversity it is quite easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the hoped for outcome will never be achieved. But this, in my opinion, is a mistake. We are constantly bombarded by the wishes of the masses, expressed through the suitably named mass media. Vested interests do, and will continue to have, disproportionate sway over public sentiment. The outcome is well known to many who post here.Are HPC'ers sheeple? I think not. In fact, the opposite is true. Someone has to take a lead, or at least a stand against the endless drivel and propaganda spouted by our dearly beloved popular press. Personally, I think HPC does that admirably

Baaaaaa !

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i seem to remember my early viewing of this site folks saying mid-late 2009 would be the time to buy the low. yet as soon as that time came the goalposts as it were got moved now to 2011-2014. will the posts keep getting moved until the "site" gets it right?

So far the collective track record of predicting house prices by the bears of this forum look something like this:

2005: Wrong

2006: Wrong

2007: Wrong

2008: Not quite as wrong as usual

2009: Wrong

2010: Wrong

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We often refer to the sheeple on here as those who have little or no understanding of the housing market - not like us economic giants! :blink:

As Human Beings we tend to move in groups or tribes of like-minded people for either cultural, racial, national, etc, etc, reasons. Groupings also tend to form of like-minded people. You want to dress up as a Jedi you may look silly walking down the High Street of a Saturday afternoon... but go and do it somewhere with a room full of Star Wars fans and, hey, not so stupid now huh?

Positive Reinforcement - that's what that is.

The internet fora, blogs et al are great for positive reinforcement of all sorts of people. Hence why we have the "Am I being unreasonable" forum over on Mumsnet amongst others. Right-wing nutters in the US who think Obama is part of some Islamic cult can have their wacko views positively reinforced in the numerous forums and chat rooms of the Far Right, etc, etc. You name it and there is a group out there somewhere online where like-minded people will agree and support your every word.

Which brings me to us.

Are we in fact the sheeple? Are we a group of nutters disaffected by missing the housing boom and now all simply hanging around here make each of us feel better?

I suspect not - the economic turmoil of the past 18 months, the collapse in most of the major Western economies of the their housing markets, if not ours, kind of prooves us right... but so far not right with regards to the UK housing market.

It is a healthy thing for individuals, groups and organisations to pause every now and then and wonder if they are simply buying into group-think?

Yes.

The only thing that gives me confidence that houses will drop by at least another 20-30% (depending on region) is that we are the last man standing in a global community of interconnected nations all of which have had the air knocked out of their housing bubbles.

I have a feeling this week will be another mildly bullish week with NW report due and the euphoria over the bank stress passes.

Edited by Realistbear

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I have found whenever you say that we might be in for a long term slow correction rather than a very sharp crash.. one gets harrangued by the usual suspects.

Define the two?

I don't think anybody has ever argued there will be a 'very sharp crash', property is simply too illiquid an asset to do that.

If you mean it will take years to come down, like Japan then yes I would call that a crash, 60% down across the board, some parts of Tokyo down 90% and property prices still falling.

If by correction you mean the market will stagnate while wages rise to make multiples sane again then I think it is impossible to pull off, look at the 'never before seen' intervention it took to do it just till election time and the mess it has left us in.

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Yes.

The only thing that gives me confidence that houses will drop by at least another 20-30% (depending on region) is that we are the last man standing in a global community of interconnected nations all of which have had the air knocked out of their housing bubbles.

I have a feeling this week will be another mildly bullish week with NW report due and the euphoria over the bank stress passes.

Er - Australia?

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Positive Reinforcement - that's what that is

:D A astute observation!

So the reason for those who would argue for house increases?

Is it just that they belive prices will rise?

Maybe they like to argue (gives them a buzz)

Maybe the really think prices will go up

Or maybe like for those of us who come here it is for a lot of reasons, a important one Positive reinforcement.

In australia house prices are still sky high

Sometimes I wonder if my thinking is going to help me.

So I wait and hope

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Define the two?

I don't think anybody has ever argued there will be a 'very sharp crash', property is simply too illiquid an asset to do that.

If you mean it will take years to come down, like Japan then yes I would call that a crash, 60% down across the board, some parts of Tokyo down 90% and property prices still falling.

If by correction you mean the market will stagnate while wages rise to make multiples sane again then I think it is impossible to pull off, look at the 'never before seen' intervention it took to do it just till election time and the mess it has left us in.

actually, many argued that there would be a sharp crash.

This view is STILL brought up every couple of weeks in posts that people are fed up with the speed.

we have had a bubble in lending...we had a peak of lending in 2007...it nearly broke the system...again. the "cure" was giving the banks the liquidity they needed to pay their bills, as the housing based assets were no longer tradeable.

the bubble in the asset most affect turned....I predicted a bull trap in mid 2008, not the timing, just that there would be one...we had it as lending returned and the bulls rushed in, and the government borrowed another £210bn over those 2 years. they are borrowing about ANOTHER £140bn this year I beleive.

it, the property credit bubble, appears to be turning again into the fear phase.

this boom has been going on since 1997 ish, with the introduction of very "clever" financial "tools" to avoid capital requirements and laws the bankers were subjected to, laws made to protect the system.

the system failed. the bankers were caught out...again.

lending IS getting tighter....Austerity is the new in word in political circles.

the housing market is going down.

It took 10 years to build the bubble, it wont crash in 2.....but it will.

TBH, Ive lost interest in buying a house...thousands of others have not...they are as keen today as they were in the boom...many cant beleive that something built and made of brick can ever lose value...its not in their psyche...its been bred out of them.

fingers havent yet been burned..£210bn EXTRA debt says why.

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Define the two?

I don't think anybody has ever argued there will be a 'very sharp crash', property is simply too illiquid an asset to do that.

If you mean it will take years to come down, like Japan then yes I would call that a crash, 60% down across the board, some parts of Tokyo down 90% and property prices still falling.

If by correction you mean the market will stagnate while wages rise to make multiples sane again then I think it is impossible to pull off, look at the 'never before seen' intervention it took to do it just till election time and the mess it has left us in.

actually my point of view is there will be a very sharp crash, faster and much deeper than 2007/8 over the next 3 years, im reasonably confident that prices will have taken out there March 2009 lows by this time next year probably with a lower BOE rate than now and they will fall off a cliff in 12/13 (i appreciate for that second part to happen there has to be an event and my money would be on a currency crisis and a sharp rise in rates above 10%).

On the other hand they may go up from here or they might plateau here or they might decline slowly ala Japan. But i think my scenario the most likely, the extreme volatility and speed in prices over the last 3 years both down and up just highlights the emotion and therefore danger present in the market. Its exactly the sort of volatility you want to see for a crash/collapse.

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There are many reasons i can think of why house prices will fall.

There is only one reason why i think they will go up and that is a further cut to the interest rate and even then i very much doubt that this would help the first time buyers.

I have a time frame of 4 years , i'm hoping for prices to be 25% cheaper than they are now and for me to get a return of 10% on my investments for each of those 4 years. That should result in my daughter getting on the ladder with a very managable mortgage.

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Guest Steve Cook

We often refer to the sheeple on here as those who have little or no understanding of the housing market - not like us economic giants! :blink:

As Human Beings we tend to move in groups or tribes of like-minded people for either cultural, racial, national, etc, etc, reasons. Groupings also tend to form of like-minded people. You want to dress up as a Jedi you may look silly walking down the High Street of a Saturday afternoon... but go and do it somewhere with a room full of Star Wars fans and, hey, not so stupid now huh?

Positive Reinforcement - that's what that is.

The internet fora, blogs et al are great for positive reinforcement of all sorts of people. Hence why we have the "Am I being unreasonable" forum over on Mumsnet amongst others. Right-wing nutters in the US who think Obama is part of some Islamic cult can have their wacko views positively reinforced in the numerous forums and chat rooms of the Far Right, etc, etc. You name it and there is a group out there somewhere online where like-minded people will agree and support your every word.

Which brings me to us.

Are we in fact the sheeple? Are we a group of nutters disaffected by missing the housing boom and now all simply hanging around here make each of us feel better?

I suspect not - the economic turmoil of the past 18 months, the collapse in most of the major Western economies of the their housing markets, if not ours, kind of prooves us right... but so far not right with regards to the UK housing market.

It is a healthy thing for individuals, groups and organisations to pause every now and then and wonder if they are simply buying into group-think?

The use of the concept "sheeple" to describe sections of the population is deeply stupid.

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Canada, France, Germany, New Zealand.

France has a glut of properties, Germany never had a boom, and my BIL reliably informs me he cant sell his house OR his plot he bought in the boom in Christchurch.

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The use of the concept "sheeple" to describe sections of the population is deeply stupid.

no, its a shorthand for crowd behaviour....sheep are a good example as everyone knows what a flock of sheep does...it flocks, and its easily controlled by a dog and handler.

sheeple means they are behaving as a flock/herd. its normal behaviour.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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