Nationwide Hpi July Predictions

[Pent Up]

I think you've misunderstood my point, I don't think there are going to be any major changes in the market so future possible falls or rises in the market is no longer a significant enough factor for anyone interested in buying a home.

Oh I did misunderstand. So they are only irrelevent if your right and they stagnate. But if they plummet or surge then they will be a very big factor. But of course stagnation is also important to FTBs as they would be no hurry as your not going to get priced out and saving as much as possible for as long as possible would be the best tactic.

[Tyler]

But of course stagnation is also important to FTBs as they would be no hurry as your not going to get priced out and saving as much as possible for as long as possible would be the best tactic.

True except that for the majority of people tactics for maximising value feature less in house purchases than things like a desire for a home or to settle etc.

[Kyoto]

So Nationwide Index is out tomorrow. I'm actually looking forward to it - I clearly spend too much time on this site!

I'm predicting a 0.1% rise - they're more SE centric and many July completions would have been agreed 2, 3, 4 months ago where a chain was involved.

[JMcLane]

I actually have about £70k now and am a potential FTB, maybe more of us than I thought! Anyway my plan is not to skip the 'first rung' but still go for a nice small FTB house with little mortgage. Although they are currently around the £150k Mark in my area of Essex at the moment so probably no hope of mortgage free

And little old me Similar money, no debts, 4 week notice to LL. Rent is low, I know people who drink more in a month than I pay in rent!

[Pent Up]

And little old me Similar money, no debts, 4 week notice to LL. Rent is low, I know people who drink more in a month than I pay in rent!

Well as long as we all stay on here and don't go out buying houses everything will be fine!

[Pent Up]

So Nationwide Index is out tomorrow. I'm actually looking forward to it - I clearly spend too much time on this site!

I'm predicting a 0.1% rise - they're more SE centric and many July completions would have been agreed 2, 3, 4 months ago where a chain was involved.

I always look forward to these. More so now they are getting good. Going by rightmove London and the south east showed the first and third biggest drops for July. Today's land reg data shows although lagging shows the south east down 0.9% and London up 0.5% I can see no possibility of this being positive (fingers crossed!)

7am tomorrow morning!

[theonlywayisdown]

And little old me Similar money, no debts, 4 week notice to LL. Rent is low, I know people who drink more in a month than I pay in rent!

Similar money to me too, no notice to LL, rent is negligible, I don't spend much, I 'work' for myself (if you can call it work), but I make so much money

[Pent Up]

Similar money to me too, no notice to LL, rent is negligible, I don't spend much, I 'work' for myself (if you can call it work), but I make so much money

Are you in the public sector?

[juvenal]

The last time prices slipped by -2.5%, the Prime Minister (then Gordon Brown) was forced to make a TV appearance.

God help us! We don't want that mad fecker back.

[Tired of Waiting]

Well I completed on a house two weeks ago and I'm trying to work out whether this makes these figures more or less relevant to me and to be honest its occred to me that they don't matter. They mattered 10 years ago when I bought my first house as then galloping price rises made a tangible difference almost month to month but we're unlikly to see such a rate of change in either direction in the next ten years so it makes no difference to me (or most others really).

What do you think of a nominal prices fall of about 20% to 30% in the next 2 to 3 years? Or a real prices fall in the next 10 years of about 50% Please read this: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148109&view=findpost&p=2641848

[abharrisson]

What do you think of a nominal prices fall of about 20% to 30% in the next 2 to 3 years? Or a real prices fall in the next 10 years of about 50% Please read this: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148109&view=findpost&p=2641848

I saw someones signature the other day still predicting the market would be 15% down in dec vs where it was in Jan this year....... improbable in my view as is 20%/30% nominal price falls in the next two to three years or indeed 50% real price falls over a longer period.

I do think real prices will fall maybe 15%-20% over the next five years but thats going to made up mostly of infaltion adjustments with not much in the way of nominal falls.

Either way it is somewhat irrelevant becasue as usual we have the HPC sheeple about who will guaranteed start to try boositn themselves with theories of why this is the start ( albeit foru or five months in) with bigger falls to come if the number is under -1%, if its over 1% it'll be a mutual love in from portsmouth to newcastle.... with perhaps no one recognising the numbers have little real world relevance espeically relating to any house anyone wants to buy... after all they will based on about 2,500 transactions which won't be statistically relevant.

I suspect prices though to be down .... direction is about the only thing Nationwide is god for.

[Mr 0.01%]

I see the prediction has been revised upwards to 0.2% - I wonder if based on yesterday's Land Registry data?

[Mr 0.01%]

Down 0.5%!

[LianeR]

Even the BBC is reporting it, with a link from the front page no less.

[Tired of Waiting]

Even the BBC is reporting it, with a link from the front page no less.

The pravda is doing it again, extracting an inflation fom a fall.

House price inflation eases again, says Nationwide

House price inflation in the UK continued to ease off in July, the Nationwide building society has said.

Its latest monthly survey shows that prices fell by 0.5% this month, taking the annual rate of house price inflation down from 8.7% to 6.6%.

And under the photo: "Estate agent's window Buyers are still restricted by mortgage rationing".

Obvious conclusion: It is the banks' fault, and a temporary thing. After all, HP will always go up... :angry:

Edited July 29, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[catmandu]

So inflation is up by over 3% and house prices are down by 0.5%.

Now my maths is not good, but if people were more aware of the real effect on their house price they'd be more concerned.

[Tyler]

What do you think of a nominal prices fall of about 20% to 30% in the next 2 to 3 years? Or a real prices fall in the next 10 years of about 50% Please read this: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148109&view=findpost&p=2641848

I don't think either of those two is likely. I read the article and as someone pointed out on the original thread the author wasn't predictign 50% drops just that the bubble never burst as fully as it could have and that things have not returned to historic norms.

[Tyler]

So inflation is up by over 3% and house prices are down by 0.5%.

Now my maths is not good, but if people were more aware of the real effect on their house price they'd be more concerned.

Would they? Why? As long as they can continue to pay the mortgage why would it matter. Redundancy is the only thing people should fear, then their house becomes unaffordable but that applies equally to those with a morgatge and those aspirants waiting for house prices to fall.

Also, a lot of people seem to be making a distinction nominal and real HPI but are they likly to be so different in the coming years? I can't see wage inflation being all that great in the coming 2-3 years. Obviously inflation will erode peoples spending power and make housing less affordable but unless that leads to plummeting real prices I don't think real value of someone's house will erode to the same extent as others seem to think

[Kazuya]

Beeb making it seem like someone is easing their foot off the accelerator...

[stoobs]

So inflation is up by over 3% and house prices are down by 0.5%.

Now my maths is not good, but if people were more aware of the real effect on their house price they'd be more concerned.

Inflation is indeed over 3%, however HPI is 6.6%.

You're comparing annual inflation with monthly HPI.

[Tired of Waiting]

I don't think either of those two is likely. I read the article and as someone pointed out on the original thread the author wasn't predictign 50% drops just that the bubble never burst as fully as it could have and that things have not returned to historic norms.

Yet. And then the author wrote: "give it time". (More in my reply there, in that original thread. )

[Godley]

Interesting that this month the nationwide index is to be believed this month.

I think this is more a statistical blip given it is based on a very very small sample of the overall housing market, only 5% I believe. Better to look at the long term average when assessing these things which indicates hpi of +10%.

Naah only joking.........

This is pretty good considering we are in peak buying season.