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Nationwide Hpi July Predictions

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This week should see Nationwide post its HPI for July. Nationwide HPI is uaually the more optimistic survey. It will be great to see a fall of 1% or more.

Any thoughts/predictions??

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I'm convinced the figures are being fiddled by shuffling some sales from one month into the next, but since I thought that last month then the 'next month' is now here.

Its got to be a negative, the only question is by how much. Since I suspect tampering I'd say the real number is somewhere around -1.6%, but since they won't want to put a whole number on it and instead dampen it with fractions less than one I'm calling -0.8%.

I'm looking forward to the day the -2% MoM wagon rolls into town again <_<

Edited by MrFlibble

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Nationwide have been advertising mortgages big time in the past 2 months and when you go in there you get constantly asked about mortgages - so I would not be surprised to see then say prices are up.... hmm, 0.1 or 0.2 up.

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Nationwide have been advertising mortgages big time in the past 2 months and when you go in there you get constantly asked about mortgages - so I would not be surprised to see then say prices are up.... hmm, 0.1 or 0.2 up.

Mortgages seem to be the only thing banks are pushing these days. It's a shame there isn't an institute savers can use that keeps the money away from these parasites. It's bad enough struggling to obtain 3% interest but knowing these banks are using the money to invest in a doomed housing market adds insult to injury. Still no doubt the taxpayer will ride to the rescue again when it all goes tits up.

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With high end houses making up the market I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase or at best a very small fall. Since volumes of sales are incredibly small and distort the 'average'.

Unfortunately you don't get a true picture of the state of affairs if houses just aren't selling.

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With high end houses making up the market I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase or at best a very small fall. Since volumes of sales are incredibly small and distort the 'average'.

Unfortunately you don't get a true picture of the state of affairs if houses just aren't selling.

Don't forget, according to figures out last week, that whilst month on month the number of mortgages fell from 52,000 to 48,000 the actual amount of money lent went up. Which indicates less people are paying more for houses.

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With high end houses making up the market I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase or at best a very small fall. Since volumes of sales are incredibly small and distort the 'average'.

Unfortunately you don't get a true picture of the state of affairs if houses just aren't selling.

And Nationwide mortgages only account for about 5% of total sales.

5% of incredibly small is not a lot.

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Don't forget, according to figures out last week, that whilst month on month the number of mortgages fell from 52,000 to 48,000 the actual amount of money lent went up. Which indicates less people are paying more for houses.

Good point - all looks very sustainable :lol:

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Don't forget, according to figures out last week, that whilst month on month the number of mortgages fell from 52,000 to 48,000 the actual amount of money lent went up. Which indicates less people are paying more for houses.

The cash figure includes re-mortgages.

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Good point - all looks very sustainable :lol:

It's the middle and top end of the markets that are selling. I have family upgrading now too. The FTB homes aren't shifting and that is unsustainable. Unless of course FTB's just skip the first rung of the ladder completely and go straight for second type homes. That would annoy the masses stuck in overpriced shoe boxes ;)

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Don't forget, according to figures out last week, that whilst month on month the number of mortgages fell from 52,000 to 48,000 the actual amount of money lent went up. Which indicates less people are paying more for houses.

I would say this is due to the top end of the Market seeing more sales while the lower ftb end is dead it's the prices that are increasing it's the size of house. Less mortgages for bigger houses.

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The cash figure includes re-mortgages.

Ah, did not know that... I still think Nationwide will be up... they appear intent on propping up the market.

Natiownide have gone from a good payer of IR on savings to rubbish IMPO. I think they are giving all the money to borrowers and resting on their laurels as being the choice of safety in the last crisis.

Beginning to move my money out of there.

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It's the middle and top end of the markets that are selling. I have family upgrading now too. The FTB homes aren't shifting and that is unsustainable. Unless of course FTB's just skip the first rung of the ladder completely and go straight for second type homes. That would annoy the masses stuck in overpriced shoe boxes ;)

I like your thinking, but we would need one hell of a crash for FTB's to skip the bottom rung of the ladder. Still we can but hope ;)

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I like your thinking, but we would need one hell of a crash for FTB's to skip the bottom rung of the ladder. Still we can but hope ;)

On the contrary, if renting becomes more popular, that opens up the prospect of "don't buy until we can afford something nice", and the FTB market gets decimated.

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So Forex predicting -0.4%. So it will either be -0.2% or -0.8% judging by their recent predictions.

Either way its gonna be a minus figure. And thats all good bearing in mind it is the peak house selling/buying season.

I predict 1--2% MoM falls during the Autumn and winter as mortgage lending dries up. Interest rates irrelevent now. January will see to that with the 2.5% VAT increase. Which effectively is a 2.5% pay cut for all. When your pay is frozen for the next few years, thats not good. Ohh, that is if you will have a job in January of course.

Preparing to buy next June / July......for cash

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So Forex predicting -0.4%. So it will either be -0.2% or -0.8% judging by their recent predictions.

Either way its gonna be a minus figure. And thats all good bearing in mind it is the peak house selling/buying season.

I predict 1--2% MoM falls during the Autumn and winter as mortgage lending dries up. Interest rates irrelevent now. January will see to that with the 2.5% VAT increase. Which effectively is a 2.5% pay cut for all. When your pay is frozen for the next few years, thats not good. Ohh, that is if you will have a job in January of course.

Preparing to buy next June / July......for cash

Whats the rush? The market will have fallen then, but it won't be anywhere near the bottom.

I'm thinking late 2013 at the earliest.

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Ah, did not know that... I still think Nationwide will be up... they appear intent on propping up the market.

Natiownide have gone from a good payer of IR on savings to rubbish IMPO. I think they are giving all the money to borrowers and resting on their laurels as being the choice of safety in the last crisis.

Beginning to move my money out of there.

They need the savers cash to do that though. How do you square that circle?

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Whats the rush? The market will have fallen then, but it won't be anywhere near the bottom.

I'm thinking late 2013 at the earliest.

The market (sellors) sentiments will be such that you would be able to make "cheeky offers" and have then accepted, and/or there will be more forced sellers will to accept lower offers. That way you can have the home that you have always wanted at a 2012/13 price.

Trying to predict the bottom may mean that you never buy because it is so unpredictable. If I buy mid / late 2011 its only a couple more years before any rebound if 2013 is the year for rebound of prices. Once I see 10-15% falls, I'm going in.....with is cheeky offer of course!

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So Forex predicting -0.4%. So it will either be -0.2% or -0.8% judging by their recent predictions.

Either way its gonna be a minus figure. And thats all good bearing in mind it is the peak house selling/buying season.

I predict 1--2% MoM falls during the Autumn and winter as mortgage lending dries up. Interest rates irrelevent now. January will see to that with the 2.5% VAT increase. Which effectively is a 2.5% pay cut for all. When your pay is frozen for the next few years, thats not good. Ohh, that is if you will have a job in January of course.

Preparing to buy next June / July......for cash

Me to, if we get decent falls and i can buy a BMV on top of the falls then next summer looks good. Although i expect the market to continue falling.

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  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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