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DonnieDarker

Will Yoy Actually Go Negative This Year?

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I accept that savge falls will not happen this year.

I would like to think of this year as the time that sentiment turned.

But I can only see this happening if YOY really does go neagtive and this is reported in the mainstream press.

As the year goes on I have a nagging doubt that this will happen. Gutted!

Any thoughts?

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I accept that savge falls will not happen this year.

I would like to think of this year as the time that sentiment turned.

But I can only see this happening if YOY really does go neagtive and this is reported in the mainstream press.

As the year goes on I have a nagging doubt that this will happen. Gutted!

Any thoughts?

By what index? Hometrack has just gone -3.7 yoy.

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..........But I can only see this happening if YOY really does go neagtive and this is reported in the mainstream press.

As the year goes on I have a nagging doubt that this will happen. Gutted!

Any thoughts?

Nationwide figures are due out tomorrow so we may get a clearer picture then as to whether it will go neg this year or not until early next year.

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Nationwide figures are due out tomorrow so we may get a clearer picture then as to whether it will go neg this year or not until early next year.

going by the archive figures, there are 1.4% of gains last year to come out by december (nov 0.9%)

yoy stands at +2.6% so will we get falls of 0.25% or more per month between now and xmas to turn it negative?

edit : this could be ****** as I was always crap at maths :huh:

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The land reg will be interesting in Q3.

Prices need to rise by £3,047 on average for the YOY change to be 0%. I doubt that will happen. If prices don't move the YOY will be -1.62%.

But with all the media at the moment, I think alot of people will be pulling out and maybe gazumping...

A 'definate' negative figure in the media is a bad sign! As alot of people can rubish Hometrack, Halifax & Nationwide.

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A 'definate' negative figure in the media is a bad sign! As alot of people can rubish Hometrack, Halifax & Nationwide.

Hometrack has been YoY negative for quite a while, and let's face it this aspect of their survey has not registered as being important enough by the media.

I expect a lot more media attention to be given to Nationwide and/or Halifax going YoY negative and both these mortgage lenders know this.

Therefore I do wonder how much fiddling or skewing has been going on with these indices because the "flat" picture they've been painting for nearly a year doesn't sit with the price drops that have been happening everywhere.

As for the LR, we have to wait until November, so in summary I wouldn't tell anyone to hold their breath.

When it comes to the house price surveys, the VIs unfortunately hold most of the cards. :angry:

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Just saw a guy on the Channel 4 news saying there's nothing to wory about. House prices are still going up. They're still 2.4% up on last year so everything's fine.

What an utter **** Is it my imagination that house prices have been going down for the last 8 or whatever months but just haven't gone YOY negative yet. (although I can't see how)

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Guest wrongmove
Is it my imagination that house prices have been going down for the last 8 or whatever months but just haven't gone YOY negative yet. (although I can't see how)

It is your imagination, unfortunately. Most of the indices have been flat for a year now. All the big rises of 2003/2004 are now out of the YoY figures, so we need actual drops for HPI to continue falling. This may happen this autumn, but while the market is slow, I see no real panic from sellers, yet.

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So, what am I not getting?!

I thought price increases were negative, i.e. month on month prices have been going down for a while. In other words the average house is worth less than it was last month and less than it was 6 months ago.

Therefore house prices are going down!

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So, what am I not getting?!

I thought price increases were negative, i.e. month on month prices have been going down for a while. In other words the average house is worth less than it was last month and less than it was 6 months ago.

Therefore house prices are going down!

They're not going down everywhere, and the average price isn't less than it was 12 months ago. Scotland is still rising as far as I know, apart from in Edinburgh and the Borders. More difficult to judge up here though, because of the offers over system.

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Guest wrongmove
So, what am I not getting?!

I thought price increases were negative, i.e. month on month prices have been going down for a while. In other words the average house is worth less than it was last month and less than it was 6 months ago.

Therefore house prices are going down!

MoM prices have been "bobbing around" zero, i.e. down 0.2% one month, up 0.1% the next. Some indices are down from their peaks, but only by a little.

e.g. Nationwide MoM (SA)

Aug -0.2

Jul +0.2%

Jun -0.2%

May +0.3%

Apr +0.9%

Mar -0.6%

Feb +0.5%

Jan +0.4% etc.

It is not oneway traffic.

Sorry.

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I thought price increases were negative, i.e. month on month prices have been going down for a while. In other words the average house is worth less than it was last month and less than it was 6 months ago.

You've been believing too much of what you read on this site. Prices have been flat all year, not up or down significantly. There's certainly no sign yet of a consistent decline in prices.

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Remember Halifax & Nationwide include Northern Ireland (so, i've been told) and as these places are still booming, along with scotland, it means England and Wales have seen falls since.

Have you noticed how Nationwide didn't include a breakdown on their Aug report? I bet the South East (where I live) is negative!

Edited by Jason

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Remember that the bottom end of the market (lower priced houses) is suffering the most due to affordability issues. FTB's are 8-10% of the market as opposed to 50% ish normally. Therefore the trades registering in the figures will be skewed towards bigger properties.

Note the launguage used by Nationwide: They talk of a "continued controlled slowdown". Who is 'controlling' this slowdown?

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You've got to keep the faith, brother. Falls are really happening in some areas. In my corner of the south east I'm seeing drops in asking prices of up to 20% (see my post about Tunbridge Wells in 'what's happening in your area'). Obviously, it's going to take a while for this to filter through, and the VIs are doing their best to keep it under wraps, but I think next year will see the truth come out. After all, some people really want to/need to sell and that's prompting them to price realistically.

For instance, I've just seen a three-bed, 1930s semi sell pretty pronto (well, it was under offer within a couple of weeks) having gone on a £255K - here's the link if you care: http://www.andrewsonline.co.uk/buyers/prop...ls.asp?id=19198

All the other houses for sale in that street or nearby have been priced at £299K (some originally went on at £325K, then dropped to £299K) and have not sold. Here's one in the same street: http://www.alexandre-boyes.co.uk/utils/sea...6300&r=0000669&

So, why did they price their house so cheap? Well, maybe it belonged to a family member who had died. Maybe they got divorced. Maybe they went bankrupt. Whatever, they clearly wanted to sell the house and that's what's going to happen more and more, and that's how prices are going to fall.

The tide has turned now, so we just have to play the waiting game...

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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