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sanddancer

Where Will The Crash Be Worst?

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I was talking to someone in the north east of England about house prices at the weekend and they said that they could see them falling in London where they are ridiculously high, but thought they would stagnate in the north east, not decrease.

They offered no reasons for this, other than that London prices were very high. If anything, I would have thought that London prices will eventually drop less than other regions. The north east does have a high percentage of people employed in the public sector, which might be fairly secure, but it also has a lot of call centres which may go overseas.

So where do people think will be the worst and least affected parts of the country?

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Guest Bart of Darkness
they could see them falling in London where they are ridiculously high, but thought they would stagnate in the north east, not decrease

To be honest I would imagine the opposite to be true. Areas like Newcastle, Wales, Manchester etc., where prices are far more inflated over the long-term norm than London, will suffer the most. These areas are more vulnerable to a downturn anyway. Areas like the North of England tend to feel the effects of a recession longer and harder than areas like the South East.

Prices are "ridiculously high" pretty much everywhere.

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I was talking to someone in the north east of England about house prices at the weekend and they said that they could see them falling in London where they are ridiculously high, but thought they would stagnate in the north east, not decrease. 

They offered no reasons for this, other than that London prices were very high.  If anything, I would have thought that London prices will eventually drop less than other regions.  The north east does have a high percentage of people employed in the public sector, which might be fairly secure, but it also has a lot of call centres which may go overseas.

So where do people think will be the worst and least affected parts of the country?

i think it wil be the north.

whilst the prices are still lower than london/ s east, the % increase over the last few years in the north has been meteoric and totally outstripped incomes.

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Guest tenant super
So where do people think will be the worst and least affected parts of the country?

Without a shadow of a doubt the most affected place will be a little bit of Scotland and No 11, Downing St, London.

Edited by tenant super

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Have a look at these two examples (I haven't picked out the most expensive or the ones with the biggest disparity):

Essex/London commuter belt:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-690...pa_n=8&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-784...a_n=10&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-876...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy

Blackpool:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-591...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-813...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

I'd suggest the Northern areas are in line for the biggest correction along with Wales.

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Guest muttley

Spot on Mark.A sister of a co-worker had her Blackpool 2 bed terraced valued at 120k last year.She was assured it would sell quickly,as it was a FTB house. :lol:

Needless to say it is still up for sale.

The EA suggested she had an open day (2 days actually) last weekend.Number of viewers..........

0

Darn those pesky FTBs!

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I agree that it is likely to be the north.

I was in York on the weekend and the price gap between there and London must have halved in the last 3 years - I can't believe earnings have done the same.

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Have a look at these two examples (I haven't picked out the most expensive or the ones with the biggest disparity):

Essex/London commuter belt:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-690...pa_n=8&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-784...a_n=10&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-876...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy

Blackpool:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-591...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-813...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

I'd suggest the Northern areas are in line for the biggest correction along with Wales.

Absolutely. House prices are outrageous in Leeds as well.

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I think the north-east will be very hard hit. I was up in a pretty deprived area the other week and I just couldn't believe the prices houses were going for - 200k for an ordinary victorian house etc. People have a real bubble mentality as well "We can't really afford this house but prices are only going to go up so it's now or never etc" :(

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My prediction is that it will probably simply polarise whatever is already in place. The areas most affected and first affected will be the horrid areas either in or out of London and the perifery of cities (those places that don't have infrastructure - eg. good public transport, good schools, nurseries etc. and have high levels of crime and low incomes). There may be a bit more 'ouch factor' in the middle because the raw numbers are so much bigger. eg. 20% of 300K is 60K. 30% of 100K is 1/2 that.

The people most likely to be worst affected are the cheap end of the BTL market - anyone who couldn't afford a decent BTL so bought somewhere in one of these unattractive areas or ex-Council, etc. It will also probably affect the very top end of the market because of the slowdown in ridiculous bonuses to directors. Ultimately though it will affect everyone to some degree or other.

Notting Hill looks like it is still in its own little pod of unreality!!!

I could be entirely wrong, but history suggest otherwise.

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I think the north-east will be very hard hit.  I was up in a pretty deprived area the other week and I just couldn't believe the prices houses were going for - 200k for an ordinary victorian house etc.  People have a real bubble mentality as well "We can't really afford this house but prices are only going to go up so it's now or never etc"  :(

Where I am - Leeds LS8 - houses have now been on the market for months. Looking through Ourproperty for this area there is more than a 50% reduction in house sales. Flats and semis have already reduced YOY July - July, flats have gone down 25%. The only thing which increased the value was the demand for BTL back to backs. That pushed up the value of other properties. Now the talk amongst landlords (more the professional types) is price reduction. I am certain that Leeds will fare very badly - anyone who buys a back to back now at anything more than 50% asking price is seriously deluded.

I just feel sorry for all the young people who have bought back to backs at 70 - 80k to live in. Equity help them.

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We have bought 2x houses in south wales 1 in porth for £22k, 1 in abercynon for £18K both are let at £300pcm can they realy fall that much. Both were purchased from local agents with in the last month and are in reasonable condition for the valleys .

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We have bought 2x houses in south wales 1 in porth for £22k, 1 in abercynon for £18K both are let at £300pcm can they realy fall that much. Both were purchased from local agents with in the last month and are in reasonable condition for the valleys .

No it doesn't really matter what you do. What you have just told me is that house prices in these areas of wales are out of whack with their investment value on the down side. Lucky you (Allow me my jealousy!!!). At that rate they could both burn down and you still only loose 1/2 what most people who bought small studios in East London are going to loose.

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The North and Wales in particular North East and North West. At least London has well paid jobs in the private sector. The public spending fiasco cant continue much longer who will pay for it? When the reductions come, it will be a big concern for northern regions like the North East whose GDP is 70% public money. Just to put that into perspective, its a ratio higher than Warsaw's during Moscow rule. Did they all do well in the preceeding years after 'independence'?.

:ph34r:

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I agree that depressed regional areas in the north, midlands, and Wales will probably get clobbered the most but dont underestimate how low London prices can go. They fell substantially in the last crash.

I quite clearly remember a TV doc back in 93 or 94 about people in negative equity. One woman had bought her flat in east London for £129,000 in the late eighties but had it valued for only £59,000 3 or 4 years later as she was struggling with the mortgage and had to sell up. Thousands more faced similiar problems in all areas previously affected by the eighties bubble.

History will repeat itself.

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Cornwall will suffer the most in my opinion. with Redruth being the epicentre. Highest unemployment in the uk and property prices are balistic ! 300 - 500% increase in the past few years

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Perhaps I should add that both the Blackpool examples have been on the market for a year already.

Next to the 3 bed one there is another property at 229k which is now on its' third EA.

A few doors down there is a house with a handmade 'HOUSE FOR SALE' sign in the window.

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We have bought 2x houses in south wales 1 in porth for £22k, 1 in abercynon for £18K both are let at £300pcm can they realy fall that much. Both were purchased from local agents with in the last month and are in reasonable condition for the valleys .

I live in this area am a first time buyer outpriced of the market.

I take it 22k bought you a 1bed flat? Average prices around porth for a 3bed terrace your talking about £50-60k and £70-80k+ for a good condition one, unless you bought the homes around the late 90's - upto 2003 before the boom started quadrippling prices and outpricing FTBers like me!

Can i ask the people who are predicting price drops around my area (S.WALES) and northen england areas why do you think these areas will have the biggest drops? I really would have thought that the major cities such as Cardiff/Swansea/Bristol would have to drop first to tempt buyers/investors away from areas like mine?

Anyone shed anymore light on this please?

Dean

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The South West / S Wales / N Ireland.

Agreed, but also add places like Middlesbough to that list. Anywhere that experiences 48% growth in a 12 mth period with nothing fundamentally changing to the appeal of the area has clear signs of speculative mania.

Also see crises ahead for "city lifestyle" apartments regardless of locale. Overhyped, Overdeveloped, Oversold.

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Spot on Mark.A sister of a co-worker had her Blackpool 2 bed terraced valued at 120k last year.She was assured it would sell quickly,as it was a FTB house. :lol:

Needless to say it is still up for sale.

The EA suggested she had an open day (2 days actually) last weekend.Number of viewers..........

0

Darn those pesky FTBs!

2 bed terrace for 120k?

I think I'd rather go with...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-712...a_n=10&tr_t=buy

or:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-869...a_n=10&tr_t=buy

or:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-830...a_n=11&tr_t=buy

But then, as you say, it was valued last year.

Here's a 2 bed terrace, slightly overpriced even at today's prices:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-830...a_n=13&tr_t=buy

As an aside, this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-830...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

has been for sale for 2 years now.

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The question is where would you prefer to be destitute.

1. In the overcrowded cancerous carbuncle of city called London where it is difficult to breath. I cannot understand why anyone would want to live in London, perhaps when you are single and earning a good deposit and having a laugh but to call it home is unthinkable, the last time I drove through London it looked like a cross between kingshasa, bombay and the Bronx (80's style)

2. Somewhere were at least when you get evicted there are some nice country walks not too far away. So perhaps the NE will be effected financially but there are hidded qualities

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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