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Is Now A Good Time To Buy?

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Ok folks. Quite glad I found this site, it has made me think a bit harder about the property market beyond 'it's just silly and I can't be bothered'.

I'm starting to nose around my chosen area, as i've been monitoring it for some time and started to see choice properties drop off and then reappear at lower prices, things sticking for ages and probably key - seeing property prices drop to a level I can actually afford.

So, as appears to be the case, the market is just about to start its proper downward slide. So is it a good time to start looking? If one is brutal with sellers and offer low (20-30% below asking) prices, stick to my guns on maximum prices etc ... am I:

a) doing the right thing and taking advantage of a falling market or...

B) ..just going to hack off EA's and vendors alike and waste my time?

As i'm comfortably renting at the moment, i'm in no rush. Also I don't particularly give a damn about owning, more than anything I just fancy moving. So do you fellow HPC'ers think i'm jumping the gun? Or is the time ripe for someone with the means and the way?

PS: Looking in SE London, if that has any relevance.

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:o

Is this a wind up? House prices have fell by 4% over the last year and you think that the time is ripe to buy? Consider how much they have risen over the past few years....200 - 300%. puts 4% into perspective, doesn't it.

This is where it starts to get interesting. We heading for a dive. Hold on, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

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:o

Is this a wind up? House prices have fell by 4% over the last year and you think that the time is ripe to buy? Consider how much they have risen over the past few years....200 - 300%. puts 4% into perspective, doesn't it.

This is where it starts to get interesting.  We heading for a dive. Hold on, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

Not a wind up - my main thrust is if I achieve a 20-30% discount on a property, then is this a case of getting in early? Or just far too early? No way in hell am I paying asking for anything!

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I suppose it depends on whether you're buying to try to make a profit, or buying a home where you plan to stay for several years to come.

You obviously aren't too sure yet if you're asking for advice, in which case, wait a bit longer, do plenty more research and when you're happy to do so, then buy a property. Until then, IMO, wait.

Edit: BTW, I'm no property or economics expert.

Edited by libitina

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Not a wind up - my main thrust is if I achieve a 20-30% discount on a property, then is this a case of getting in early? Or just far too early? No way in hell am I paying asking for anything!

All depends whether you have rich parents to bail you out in a couple of years time when the mortgage payments double and the house is worth only of the half the 'bargain' price you paid.

If not perhaps you should ask yourself "do I really like supernoodles enough to eat them every day?"

P.S. 8% correct

Edited by KickThemInThePant

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I suppose it depends on whether you're buying to try to make a profit, or buying a home where you plan to stay for several years to come.

It's to be a home, rather than investment - and i'll not be doing the 6x IO mortgage - i'm not nuts. I'm working on 3x our combined salaries, Repayment and have no intent of maxing out to buy the dream home - my partner & I are extremely rational and cautious people, and I expect to start a family after we marry next year so her income disappearing is something I have to worry about, and she's a high earner so I can't hope for a payrise to cover the shortfall...

The question i'm really asking is: If prices are expected to fall 20-30% over the next 5 years, if you get that discount right now because the market will now take it, isn't that just getting ahead of the game - or am I missing something fundamental?

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The question i'm really asking is: If prices are expected to fall 20-30% over the next 5 years, if you get that discount right now because the market will now take it, isn't that just getting ahead of the game - or am I missing something fundamental?

I think that is an eminently sensible question IMD and it's a shame your original question was ridiculed. First of all, there is a good argument that house prices would go down much more than 20%-30% over that period. However, assuming we say 30% as it does seem to be some sort of consensus figure on this board, then it would be difficult to refute your argument. However, and this is where many people go wrong, it is not 30% off the ASKING PRICE, but 30% off the current market value that you should get off. That in itself is difficult to calculate, but a good indicator would be average selling price of similar properties on the same street over the last 12 months. Don't be fooled by big reductions on asking prices.

The guide I am using is whether the price I can get now is the same as the point at which house prices went above the long term moving average when the boom began. I believe that's Q2 2001 - this is taken from the Nationwide data in their last report (http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/MPR0507.pdf) on page 5 - the long term average today should be what people were paying for properties at the beginning of 2001. Not totally scientific I know, and crashes tend to overshoot on the downside, but it's good enough for my purposes and I would agree with what you're doing in this context - I'm keeping an eye out too but I think it best to really wait for the crash to kick in. HTH.

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It's to be a home, rather than investment - and i'll not be doing the 6x IO mortgage - i'm not nuts. I'm working on 3x our combined salaries, Repayment  and have no intent of maxing out to buy the dream home - my partner & I are extremely rational and cautious people, and I expect to start a family after we marry next year so her income disappearing is something I have to worry about, and she's a high earner so I can't hope for a payrise to cover the shortfall...

The question i'm really asking is: If prices are expected to fall 20-30% over the next 5 years, if you get that discount right now because the market will now take it, isn't that just getting ahead of the game - or am I missing something fundamental?

I'm quite surprised how everyone in this forum is so negative.

I was burnt by the Nasdaq crash, too but I made so much money between 1998 and 2000 that overall it didn't really hurt.

What I want to say is that there are always doomsday prophets around. The ones that predicted a stockmarket crash in 1997 were eventually right (just like a broken watch shows the right time twice a day) but boy did they miss out on a good rally. It's all about timing and although I agree that prices are high I wouldn't bet on them collapsing this year.

If houseprices in this country collaps it will be very bad for everyone and the UK will probably steer into a phase of recession. Would the governement want that? And if no - wouldn't the they do everything in their powers to prevent it?

I think that if you want to buy to live in and find a nice place that you are happy to spend the next few years in at a good price then go ahead. If prices drop like everyone predicts you stick to it, if they go up you proved them all wrong.

Only dead fish swim with the stream... ;)

Edited by vera

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I dont buy all this "its for habitation" rather than "investement" argument...

...as far as I can see housing is ALWAYS an investment - sometimes an emotional one but always one that financially will either restrict or open up possibilities in your life.

I'll never understand people who use the line "it's for living in" as carte-blanche to ignore the implications of prices going down.

You could buy now or you could wait a few years and maybe save £50K. This isn't just numbers were talking about, these are life-changing amounts of money that may dictate whether you can enjoy life to its fullest.

What I do concede is that it is nigh impossible to get it (timing) anything like 100% right. But for goodness' sake, at least get it 50% right.

Now we are in about the 20% right to buy stage.

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I'm quite surprised how everyone in this forum is so negative.

I was burnt by the Nasdaq crash, too but I made so much money between 1998 and 2000 that overall it didn't really hurt.

What I want to say is that there are always doomsday prophets around. The ones that predicted a stockmarket crash in 1997 were eventually right (just like a broken watch shows the right time twice a day) but boy did they miss out on a good rally. It's all about timing and although I agree that prices are high I wouldn't bet on them collapsing this year.

If houseprices in this country collaps it will be very bad for everyone and the UK will probably steer into a phase of recession. Would the governement want that? And if no - wouldn't the they do everything in their powers to prevent it?

I think that if you want to buy to live in and find a nice place that you are happy to spend the next few years in at a good price then go ahead. If prices drop like everyone predicts you stick to it, if they go up you proved them all wrong.

Only dead fish swim with the stream...  ;)

AWOOGA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Even if you get a good discount, there's a recession on the way. Not a good time to take on a huge debt.

I'd wait a few years if I were you. (unless you are convinced you are 'recession proof')

I waited 5 long years (through a recession) to eventually FTB in 1995.

It made all the difference for me! Buying became cheaper than renting.

The same could happen again in a few years.

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Edit: BTW, I'm no property or economics expert.

Nor is anyone else - a lot of the problems are caused by the fact that a lot of people think that a lot of other people know what they are doing.

Krusty is a property expert.

Wrigglesworthy is a property expert.

The mind boggles.

I'd say you're as expert as the next person.

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Even if you get a good discount, there's a recession on the way. Not a good time to take on a huge debt.

I'd wait a few years if I were you. (unless you are convinced you are 'recession proof')

I waited 5 long years (through a recession) to eventually FTB in 1995.

It made all the difference for me! Buying became cheaper than renting.

The same could happen again in a few years.

That's the best bit of advice I've read on here and that other chap is right too - no matter which way you look at it - a house is an investment. It's the most expensive thing you will ever buy, you'll be paying for it for most of your life. Important not to get it wrong.

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spot on the money marina.

everyone who is an expert here and swears that prices will collapse this year must be loaded with FTSE puts to make a fortune on the coming recession.

well - are you?

Edited by vera

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I'm quite surprised how everyone in this forum is so negative.

I was burnt by the Nasdaq crash, too but I made so much money between 1998 and 2000 that overall it didn't really hurt.

What I want to say is that there are always doomsday prophets around. The ones that predicted a stockmarket crash in 1997 were eventually right (just like a broken watch shows the right time twice a day) but boy did they miss out on a good rally. It's all about timing and although I agree that prices are high I wouldn't bet on them collapsing this year.

If houseprices in this country collaps it will be very bad for everyone and the UK will probably steer into a phase of recession. Would the governement want that? And if no - wouldn't the they do everything in their powers to prevent it?

I think that if you want to buy to live in and find a nice place that you are happy to spend the next few years in at a good price then go ahead. If prices drop like everyone predicts you stick to it, if they go up you proved them all wrong.

Only dead fish swim with the stream...  ;)

By your own admission its a matter of timing, you accept that prices are high and yet you advocate buying at a peak, because you "wouldn't bet on them collapsing this year"

Bit short sighted arnt you, there are 4 months left in this year, no one to my knowledge expect a HPC to have played out in 4 months. You need to remember that for most people its a 25 Year Deal and not just look to the end of your nose and think oh well i can afford payments this year.

Historically low interest rates / Massivly inflated house prices, its ok though you can afford it now.

Its people with attitude like yours who are the first to be repossessed.

Each to their own, i'm not here to try and change anyones mind, i personally don't give a damn about any of you... i just dont think much to idiots.

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By your own admission its a matter of timing, you accept that prices are high and yet you advocate buying at a peak, because you "wouldn't bet on them collapsing this year"

Bit short sighted arnt you, there are 4 months left in this year, no one to my knowledge expect a HPC to have played out in 4 months. You need to remember that for most people its a 25 Year Deal and not just look to the end of your nose and think oh well i can afford payments this year.

Historically low interest rates / Massivly inflated house prices, its ok though you can afford it now.

Its people with attitude like yours who are the first to be repossessed.

Each to their own, i'm not here to try and change anyones mind, i personally don't give a damn about any of you... i just dont think much to idiots.

quite a rude tone for someone who doesn't care? what's your problem??

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Guest muttley

You're not the only hatstand.I would buy right now if I could acheive a 30% discount.The trouble is the British public still don't believe house prices will ever fall that much.

Better to wait for 10% falls and a 20% discount.

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......I waited 5 long years (through a recession) to eventually FTB in 1995.

It made all the difference for me! Buying became cheaper than renting.

The same could happen again in a few years.

I bought a house in 1995 for £60k which had been sold for £110k in 1989.

The current situation reminds me of 1989 : there is a major correction on the way but falls are still in their infancy and prices are still grossly overvalued. I expect the slide to accelerate as we head into winter and downward pressures to increase next year with increasing job losses, more forced sellers struggling with debt, BTL'ers getting out, and the collapse in sellers morale when the 'spring bounce'again fails to materialise.

I recall 1989. Prices fell significantly in most areas for the first couple of years then drifted lower upto 1995 before slowly picking up again.

If you've got somewhere OK to live in currently then whats the point of buying now. Wait for further price falls and save yourself money, or get a much better place. Its a no-brainer really.

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Ok folks. Quite glad I found this site, it has made me think a bit harder about the property market beyond 'it's just silly and I can't be bothered'.

I'm starting to nose around my chosen area, as i've been monitoring it for some time and started to see choice properties drop off and then reappear at lower prices, things sticking for ages and probably key - seeing property prices drop to a level I can actually afford.

So, as appears to be the case, the market is just about to start its proper downward slide. So is it a good time to start looking? If one is brutal with sellers and offer low (20-30% below asking) prices, stick to my guns on maximum prices etc ...  am I:

a) doing the right thing and taking advantage of a falling market or...

B) ..just going to hack off EA's and vendors alike and waste my time?

As i'm comfortably renting at the moment, i'm in no rush. Also I don't particularly give a damn about owning, more than anything I just fancy moving. So do you fellow HPC'ers think i'm jumping the gun? Or is the time ripe for someone with the means and the way?

PS: Looking in SE London, if that has any relevance.

Am in a similar position to yourself except that I am looking for a house purchase to last me until my younger son at least leaves school. He is 3 and a half so we are talking over 13 years and probably nearer 20 as they hang around a bit. The house we like the most is currently on the market for £485k and through Land Registry have established it was bought for £297k in summer 2002. We would never have to move again but if I buy now and say pay £460k assuming they are receptive I could end up paying interest on and being required to repay capital of say £100k extra over a post-crash price. That would be galling.

I am taking comfort from the fact that prices are no longer rising and that transaction volume is enormously reduced.

If I can get closer to the previous highest price for properties in this street (they are all broadly similar) of 400k then I would be in like a shot but I am not going to be the muppet who is listed as paying 60k more than anyone else EVER just before it went into freefall.

Am not looking to "bottom pick" just get closer to it.

Fox

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Guest muttley
I bought a house in 1995 for £60k which had been sold for £110k in 1989.

The current situation reminds me of 1989 :

Don't say that!!I've been trying to convince the missus that it's like 1992 (the last time we bought).Back then vendors realised the market was falling,but refused to believe that THEIR house was falling in price.There were bargains,especially for no-chain buyers,but you had to get out and look.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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