Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
goldbug9999

Ftse / £ Shooting Up On The Back Of Groundless Optimism ...

Recommended Posts

Recovery doubts allayed as economic growth at four-year high

Fiona "Fifi" Shaikh and Christina "Chrissie" Fincher, 13:29, Friday 23 July 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - Britain's economic recovery raced ahead from April to June as the biggest jump in construction in half a century and a surge in services propelled growth at its fastest pace in four years.
Gross domestic product jumped 1.1 percent in the second quarter, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. That was almost twice the rate analysts expected and nearly four times the pace of growth in the first quarter.
Friday's figures suggested Britain's recovery was on a firmer footing than many feared,
easing concerns that deep public spending cuts could drive the economy back into recession, though some said growth may lose momentum in the third quarter.

Ecstasy reigns. Not a sign of a cloud for miles as they see nothing but blue skies ahead. What a difference 24 hours makes.

All sing: There's northing stopping us now......

I wonder if it also means the HPC has been cancelled, again? :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HOW...evah (the above farticle continues):

AS GOOD AS IT GETS?
Chancellor George Osborne said the figures were evidence that the private sector would be able to fill the gap left by public spending cutbacks.
"Today's figures show the private sector contributing all but 0.1 percent of the growth in the second quarter, and put beyond doubt that it was right to begin acting on the deficit now," he said.
But analysts cautioned that growth could lose momentum in the second half of this year.
Separate figures on Friday showed banks were still not lending freely, suggesting households and businesses may find it hard to make up for the expected drop in government spending.
Even with the second quarter bounce, Britain has recouped around only a quarter of the output lost during the deepest recession since World War Two, which wiped 22 billion pounds off the economy.
"My hunch is that Q3 is certainly not going to be as good as this," said Amit Kara, economist at UBS (Virt-X: UBSN.VX - news) , who said the government's forecast for 1.3 percent growth this year still looked optimistic. "This is about as good as it gets."
A breakdown of the figures showed the services sector enjoyed its fastest growth in three years, expanding by 0.9 percent on the quarter -- three times as fast as in Q1 and contributing 0.7 percentage points to growth.
Manufacturing grew 1.6 percent, its biggest rise in more than 10 years.
Construction leapt 6.6 percent on the quarter -- its fastest rate since 1963, rebounding after weather-related weakness at the start of the year.
However, analysts urged caution in interpreting the figures, which were based for the first time based on a new monthly survey.
"There was a surprising pick up in new work in the private sector --
we would question how plausible this is,"
said Hetal Mehta, senior economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.
(Additional reporting by Matt "Matthew" Falloon and David "Dave" Milliken; Editing by Patrick "Paddy" Graham and Hugh "Hugh" Lawson)

Every blue sky has a cloud, so keep your peckers high!

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

German stocks gone wild on bank stress news (which is not yet relased):

Frankfurt Last Trade Change Related Information

^GDAXI DAX Index 6,177.03 1:49pm 186.65 (+3.12%) Chart, Components, more...

^GDAXHI HDAX Index 3,125.76 1:49pm 96.21 (+3.18%) Chart, Components, more...

^MDAXI MDAX Index 8,480.29 1:49pm 306.74 (+3.75%) Chart, Components, more...

^MCAPM Midcap Market Index 776.67 1:49pm 25.05 (+3.33%) Chart, Components, more...

^SDAXI SDAX Index 4,058.57 1:49pm 66.71 (+1.67%) Chart, Components, more...

^TECDAX TecDAX Index 787.20 1:49pm 16.39 (+2.13%) Chart, Components, more...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

German stocks gone wild on bank stress news (which is not yet relased):

Frankfurt Last Trade Change Related Information

^GDAXI DAX Index 6,177.03 1:49pm 186.65 (+3.12%) Chart, Components, more...

^GDAXHI HDAX Index 3,125.76 1:49pm 96.21 (+3.18%) Chart, Components, more...

^MDAXI MDAX Index 8,480.29 1:49pm 306.74 (+3.75%) Chart, Components, more...

^MCAPM Midcap Market Index 776.67 1:49pm 25.05 (+3.33%) Chart, Components, more...

^SDAXI SDAX Index 4,058.57 1:49pm 66.71 (+1.67%) Chart, Components, more...

^TECDAX TecDAX Index 787.20 1:49pm 16.39 (+2.13%) Chart, Components, more...

Buy the rumour, sell the fact? we shall see...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No they are shooting up on the strength of the recovery.

Quite true.

Look at the earnings that are getting reported in the US. Profits up , sales down.

The companies are leaner and better run than they were two years ago , get the consumer spending again somehow ( a very big ask) and these stocks look very cheap in a low interest rate environment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite true.

Look at the earnings that are getting reported in the US. Profits up , sales down.

The companies are leaner and better run than they were two years ago , get the consumer spending again somehow ( a very big ask) and these stocks look very cheap in a low interest rate environment.

Recovery locked in US-side of things:

Ford posts $2.6bn profit in second quarter
13:31, Friday 23 July 2010
Leading US automaker Ford said Friday it saw a 13 percent net profit jump to 2.6 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2010 on strong sales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

oooh thats a big sudden drop

I think this is what done it.

EU Stress Tests Only Consider Bank Trading Book Bond Losses

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- The 91 banks being stress-tested were only examined on European sovereign debt losses for the bonds they trade, rather than those they hold to maturity, according to a draft European Central Bank document.

“The haircuts are applied to the trading book portfolios only, as no default assumption was considered,” according to a confidential document dated July 22 and titled “EU Stress Test Exercise: Key Messages on Methodological Issues.”

The tests will assume a loss of 23.1 percent on Greek debt, 14 percent of Portuguese bonds, 12.3 percent on Spanish debt, and 4.7 percent on German state debt, according to the document obtained by Bloomberg News. U.K. government bonds will be subject to a 10 percent haircut, and France 5.9 percent.

The tests assume the weighted average yield on euro-area five-year government bonds will rise to 4.6 percent in 2011 from 2.7 percent at the end of 2009. The tests also include an increase in the yield on five-year Greek government bonds to as much as 13.9 percent after “interest rate shocks,” the document shows.

“The haircuts on government debt in the trading book increase according to the introduction of sovereign risk, which is modeled as an increase in government bond spreads in line with market developments since the beginning of May 2010,” according to the document.

European Union regulators are examining the strength of banks to determine if they can survive potential losses on sovereign-bond holdings. They are counting on the tests to reassure investors about the health of financial institutions from Germany’s WestLB AG and Bayerische Landesbank to Spanish savings banks as the debt crisis pummels the bonds of Greece, Spain and Portugal.

CEBS deputy secretary general Patrick Amis declined to comment on the document, referring questions to the ECB. The ECB declined to comment. CEBS is scheduled to release the criteria and the test results from 5 p.m. London time today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone who opened a short at about 1.5450, closed half at 1.54 and set the stoploss on the rest at breakeven is probably ordering the champagne as we post... ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone who opened a short at about 1.5450, closed half at 1.54 and set the stoploss on the rest at breakeven is probably ordering the champagne as we post... ;)

Same on EUR/USD ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.