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Bba Mortgage Approvals -4.4% In June

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Dropping to 34,813 from 36,418 in May.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks said:

"The banks' mortgage lending position was little changed in June. The abolition of HIPs and a reported increase in the number of house sellers is expected to encourage activity in the market, though this may be tempered by households' uncertainty over job prospects and the impacts of fiscal tightening.

http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/80/08/June_2010_Monthly_Statistics_Release.pdf

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I note the average approval value is climbing too, which fits with the observation that higher-priced homes are selling in preference to starter homes.

Average approval is (page 3/4 via the link) £150,600 compared to £150,500 last month and the six-month average of £144k.

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High street banks continued to see strong repayments. Net mortgage lending increased by £2.1bn in June compared with £2.5bn

How much of that is the govt paying money back?

(If they pay 6% back and the interest is only 1.5% then are we repaying capital?)

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I note the average approval value is climbing too, which fits with the observation that higher-priced homes are selling in preference to starter homes.

Average approval is (page 3/4 via the link) £150,600 compared to £150,500 last month and the six-month average of £144k.

thatd be those 50K earners all on the move.

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http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/80/08/June_2010_Monthly_Statistics_Release.pdf

Whilst mortgage lending is in a slow decline, net lending for unsecured loans (mostly loans/overdrafts rather than CC's) is now negative and business lending is falling at ~6% pa.

So banks are still seeing mortgages as a safer bet than funding industry.

VMR.

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When the banks need to find around £800 Billion over the next couple of years for MBS rollovers and the end of SLS/CGS, they must be very confident to still be providing new mortgages.

VMR.

I guess they're working on the assumption that the Government and the Bank of England won't have the balls to say to them, "No, go raise your own funding". Seems like a rational assumption to me.

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I guess they're working on the assumption that the Government and the Bank of England won't have the balls to say to them, "No, go raise your own funding". Seems like a rational assumption to me.

It's not as black and white as that. Remember the banks have to pay to use these schemes. The government is unlikely to stop the schemes dead. But it is likely to tweak the terms to suit its objectives.

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Pretty good news then. I wonder what the news of 1.1% GDP growth will have, will ppl be more confident and get a 5x mortgage or will the banks carry on restricting lending.

Look at the business figures, they're shocking.

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Here’s some more charts – this time comparing the BBA and official BoE number of approvals for house purchase along with some other useful/timely indicators and good for eyeballing trends. :)

NSA – BBA (today), BoE approvals, and Property Activity Sold Board Instructions

vy8r5k.png

SA – BBA (today), BoE Approvals, and BoE Lending Panel (Trends in lending)

23lijk7.png

BoE June/2010 is out on Thursday 29/Jun.

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Here’s some more charts – this time comparing the BBA and official BoE number of approvals for house purchase along with some other useful/timely indicators and good for eyeballing trends. :)

NSA – BBA (today), BoE approvals, and Property Activity Sold Board Instructions

vy8r5k.png

SA – BBA (today), BoE Approvals, and BoE Lending Panel (Trends in lending)

23lijk7.png

BoE June/2010 is out on Thursday 29/Jun.

Hey, been trying to get the property activity index figures but can only find MoM % changes. Where did you get the data from? Cheers

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Hey, been trying to get the property activity index figures but can only find MoM % changes. Where did you get the data from? Cheers

Hi kilroy, This sold board activity index is really quite interesting - I chained the MoMs together to get the series, then because of all the usual health warnings about this sort of index I cross-checked it against the approvals, and it's remarkably good (at least so far). Slightly leads approvals on the time-lime, as you might expect.

Edited by spline

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Hi kilroy, This sold board activity index is really quite interesting - I chained the MoMs together to get the series, then because of all the usual health warnings about this sort of index I cross-checked it against the approvals, and it's remarkably good (at least so far). Slightly leads approvals on the time-lime, as you might expect.

Ok thanks.

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Ok thanks.

Translation:

<I don't have a clue what you are talking about but cheers anyway. I will leave this shit to the coneheads in future. My head hurts>

:)

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Hi kilroy, This sold board activity index is really quite interesting - I chained the MoMs together to get the series, then because of all the usual health warnings about this sort of index I cross-checked it against the approvals, and it's remarkably good (at least so far). Slightly leads approvals on the time-lime, as you might expect.

We might be able to help you with your quest for further information as we handle the Property Activity Index for Agency Express. Let me know what details you want and we'll see what we can do. July's results will be out later this week. Will post results here.

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We might be able to help you with your quest for further information as we handle the Property Activity Index for Agency Express. Let me know what details you want and we'll see what we can do. July's results will be out later this week. Will post results here.

oooh oooh. HOw exciting! I would like actual board movements figures, and not MoM figures. Just hte latest ones would do as we can then backfill the series using published data. Also, on the website it says that indices go back to Jan 2007 but htey only have report archive from Jan 2009, so historical data pre 2009 as well would be very useful. CHeers

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We might be able to help you with your quest for further information as we handle the Property Activity Index for Agency Express. Let me know what details you want and we'll see what we can do. July's results will be out later this week. Will post results here.

Hi roboooc,

Excellent, and thanks for offering additional data from the Property Activity Index. B)

Given that we have a good predictive chain linking approvals/transactions to price movements, specifically current HPI and reported YoY 6-7 months later, the key value of the Activity Index would be to extend this by providing [even earlier, more timely] proxies for the approval/transaction numbers.

So, ideally, that would be:

1. Number of monthly ‘for sale’ instructions

2. Number of monthly ‘sold’ instructions

3. A measure of stock, say total number of current ‘for sale’ boards, would allow us to construct RICS a type sales-to-stock ratio.

4. A market share number, say number of agents signed up, (since we don’t want changes in Property Agency market share relative to competitors showing up as changes in supply/demand for property).

But, given that providing data takes time and effort, I’d say that 2 would be the minimum useful data, followed perhaps by some normalisation measure against either supply (1 or 3, sales-to-stock) and/or market share (4, sales per agent, stock per agent). Quoting a number rather than a % MoM would be better. We can also add seasonal adjustment using X12 ARIMA or similar if there is a couple of years NSA back data.

Other suggestions / ideas welcome ...

Another HPC thread on the Property Activity Index, March/2010

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=137954&view=findpost&p=2410623

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