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spoon

Stop Yearning For The Crash...

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it is futile and unnecessary to keep asking whether we are heading for a crash in house prices.

first ask yourself this. based on your own anecdotal evidence do you believe the YOY figures being REPORTED will eventually hit DOWN 10%?

i think that's a far easier question to answer. i believe we WILL see DOUBLE DIGIT ANNUAL FALLS being reported eventually. then and only then will i assess where we go from there. the world might be a different place.

until then do not buy. stay put / keep renting.

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it is futile and unnecessary to keep asking whether we are heading for a crash in house prices.

first ask yourself this. based on your own anecdotal evidence do you believe the YOY figures being REPORTED will eventually hit DOWN 10%?

i think that's a far easier question to answer. i believe we WILL see DOUBLE DIGIT ANNUAL FALLS being reported eventually. then and only then will i assess where we go from there. the world might be a different place.

until then do not buy. stay put / keep renting.

As I mentioned in a separate post yesterday, people's perception of what a 'CRASH' actually is differs wildly; is it simply a case of 10% down YOY? You could argue this has happened already in some areas and therefore the crash has already started... ;)

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exactly. i want to see how sentiment responds to official media reports of what many people are already witnessing.

that 's the next crossroads.

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I agree Spoon, there will be a tipping point, and it looks like we're moving towards it slowly but surely. It will be very interesting indeed when the indices go -ve YoY, and stay there. The difference say +2% and +10% YoY change has on sentiment is minimal. Joe Average still thinks, 'well even if my property only goes up 2% I'm better off buying' etc.

the dominios will fall when the 'soft landing' is replaced by every index showing -2%, - 3%, -5% etc. yoy changes and these facts are transmitted widely into peoples living rooms. When it happens, 'everyone knows' prices are falling. It will be 'common sense' to either wait or put in very low offers.

There will be nowhere for the VIs to hide

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I have already seen many properties reduced by over 15% in a period of few months. Agents are now calling me trying to encourage me to view. When I probe about a cash purchase discount, I am usually told that the vendors have already refused offers of 50% and 60% of asking price. This tells me that even the listed asking prices have a lot of fat in them. All of this just convinces me to wait for another year. The interest on what I am planning on spending is more than covering my rent.

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I think when recent buyers realise their property is heading into negative equity at a rate that compares with their income they will start to panic and want to bail out.

The right time to buy/move up the ladder could still be several years away though.

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I dont think we will ever see minus 10% YOY reported.

The data will be fudged to hide that kind of neg press. If it is reported it will only be shouted down by the deafening "its stabilising/its recovering" articles.

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I dont think we will ever see minus 10% YOY reported.

The data will be fudged to hide that kind of neg press. If it is reported it will only be shouted down by the deafening "its stabilising/its recovering" articles.

Agreed.

I have already seen falls of 10% in Battersea (and I can back that up with proof, from the land registry and my own experience), yet most of the press is reporting what the VI's want, that prices are stagnant/ have stabilised.

A house price crash is only that in hindsight. Tell people now that we're in the early stages of a crash and they'll laugh at you.

Edited by BandWagon

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it is futile and unnecessary to keep asking whether we are heading for a crash in house prices.

first ask yourself this. based on your own anecdotal evidence do you believe the YOY figures being REPORTED will eventually hit DOWN 10%?

i think that's a far easier question to answer. i believe we WILL see DOUBLE DIGIT ANNUAL FALLS being reported eventually. then and only then will i assess where we go from there. the world might be a different place.

until then do not buy. stay put / keep renting.

If you don't like this forum hit the red button on your remote.. err... I mean 'Start' button on your PC.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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