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Realistbear

Double Dip Cancelled Again As U S Homes Sales Fall

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-shares-extend-gains-after-u-s-housing-data-reuters_molt-428f07bafade.html?x=0

Europe shares extend gains after U.S. housing data
15:12, Thursday 22 July 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - European shares extended gains in afternoon trading on Thursday after data showed existing U.S. home sales fell less sharply than expected to a three-month low in June.
At 3:04 p.m., the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 2.1 percent at 1,038.88 points.

FTSE All Share 2737.26 45.81 +1.70%

Dow Jones 10313.14 192.61 +1.90%

Market seems to be grasping at anything and overreacts at everything. First its the recovery locked in. Then is Benjamin Bernanke's grim reality speech yesterday. Today its houses prices falling--but not as fast as they thought they would this month.

Its easy to see why the DJIA is up so sharply--wonderful news on the job front:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-afp-f8f24a1d9053.html?x=0

US initial jobless claims rise
more
than expected
15:04, Thursday 22 July 2010
New claims for US unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, after two weeks of sharp declines linked largely to seasonal layoffs, government data showed Thursday.

The headless chicken has yet to keel over.

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Guest Noodle

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-shares-extend-gains-after-u-s-housing-data-reuters_molt-428f07bafade.html?x=0

Europe shares extend gains after U.S. housing data
15:12, Thursday 22 July 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - European shares extended gains in afternoon trading on Thursday after data showed existing U.S. home sales fell less sharply than expected to a three-month low in June.
At 3:04 p.m., the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 2.1 percent at 1,038.88 points.

FTSE All Share 2737.26 45.81 +1.70%

Dow Jones 10313.14 192.61 +1.90%

Market seems to be grasping at anything and overreacts at everything. First its the recovery locked in. Then is Benjamin Bernanke's grim reality speech yesterday. Today its houses prices falling--but not as fast as they thought they would this month.

Its easy to see why the DJIA is up so sharply--wonderful news on the job front:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-afp-f8f24a1d9053.html?x=0

US initial jobless claims rise
more
than expected
15:04, Thursday 22 July 2010
New claims for US unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, after two weeks of sharp declines linked largely to seasonal layoffs, government data showed Thursday.

The headless chicken has yet to keel over.

Is this not just stock market manipulation by governments and central banks?

Is the stock market at all representative of reality at all now?

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Is this not just stock market manipulation by governments and central banks?

Is the stock market at all representative of reality at all now?

I dont suppose it could just be more buyers than sellers today or is that far too straightforward

Must remember the mantra - Market up= pure manipulation-NWO-Men in Black

Must remember the mantra - Market down= zero manipulation, correct market action

do you reckon it was representative of reality when tech stocks were trading at 200PE ratios, its not reflected reality or what i presume you mean "fair value" for about 15 years, doesnt mean that people wont buy if their reality perceives it to be fair value at this moment in time for them

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Helicopter Ben was hinting at more printing last night so it makes sense that the markets move up.

I personally think you are a brave person to be in the markets now or are able to lose all that you have in shares.

Have to admit, by mid November if things have not crashed I will be re-evaluating my position.

I think Obama will print again - just a question of whether it is before or after the US mid-terms. Printing would have to happen more or less now if he is to get any benefit in November. Any later than the next 2 weeks and he will not see the benefit and the electorate may think he is bailing out the US banks again.

I think printing must be on the cards and I suspect it was a major part of Cameron's time in the US.

It has been over-looked by almost everyone but Cameron was on the news last night talking about how the US is the Reserve currency and they can keep printing but we cannot - that is what he said. So I took from that there is US pressure to print, they want us to do likewise but that we are having big doubts about it.

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FTSE All Share 2738.82 47.37 +1.76%

Dow Jones 10330.77 210.24 +2.08%

What surprised me was a massive rise in stocks on 3 pieces of bad news:

1. Job losses getting worse in the US

2. Bernanke's doom and gloom yesterday and how a double dip may be locked in

3. House prices still crashing albeit more slowly than before.

Perhaps the greyish house news is the real market mover. I know a HPC here will lay our markets to waste as everything stands or falls on the direction of house prices.

The trigger may have been this piece from AP:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Leading-indicators-drop-in-apf-1541974113.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Leading indicators fall in June for 2nd time in past 3 months, suggesting recovery will weaken
Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer, On Thursday July 22, 2010, 10:28 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- A gauge of future economic activity dropped in June, the second decline in past 3 months, suggesting the economic recovery will weaken.

Or this blue skies report:

Stocks Rebound After Bernanke's 'Uncertain' Outlook Spooks Market

Jul 22, 2010 10:49am EDT by Peter Gorenstein

Stocks are rebounding strongly, soaring more than 2% Thursday morning after getting a scare from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday. Bernanke's semiannual report to the Senate Banking Committee had a chilling effect, causing a triple-digit loss on the Dow.

Nothing like grim overall news to spur the buyers on what!

Edited by Realistbear

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I have the impression that most brokers are easily spooked - they hear something, react then go away, have a drink and a kip and wake up the following morning having completely erased the past 24 hours from their memory.

I was going to say almost sheep-like but then maybe it is more goldfish like? Is that an insult on goldfish?

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FTSE All Share 2738.82 47.37 +1.76%

Dow Jones 10330.77 210.24 +2.08%

What surprised me was a massive rise in stocks on 3 pieces of bad news:

1. Job losses getting worse in the US

2. Bernanke's doom and gloom yesterday and how a double dip may be locked in

3. House prices still crashing albeit more slowly than before.

Perhaps the greyish house news is the real market mover. I know a HPC here will lay our markets to waste as everything stands or falls on the direction of house prices.

The trigger may have been this piece from AP:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Leading-indicators-drop-in-apf-1541974113.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Leading indicators fall in June for 2nd time in past 3 months, suggesting recovery will weaken
Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer, On Thursday July 22, 2010, 10:28 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- A gauge of future economic activity dropped in June, the second decline in past 3 months, suggesting the economic recovery will weaken.

Or this blue skies report:

Stocks Rebound After Bernanke's 'Uncertain' Outlook Spooks Market

Jul 22, 2010 10:49am EDT by Peter Gorenstein

Stocks are rebounding strongly, soaring more than 2% Thursday morning after getting a scare from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday. Bernanke's semiannual report to the Senate Banking Committee had a chilling effect, causing a triple-digit loss on the Dow.

Nothing like grim overall news to spur the buyers on what!

which should sort of tell you what ive been trying to tell you for the last month or so so im not sure how it can be a suprise, that daily news is completely irrelevant to stock market action. If they want to go up they will and if they want to go down they will and every news story has a positive and negative side that can be drawn on by reuters depending on how millions of people collectively act at that moment in time

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which should sort of tell you what ive been trying to tell you for the last month or so so im not sure how it can be a suprise, that daily news is completely irrelevant to stock market action. If they want to go up they will and if they want to go down they will and every news story has a positive and negative side that can be drawn on by reuters depending on how millions of people collectively act at that moment in time

This much is true but what DRIVES such wild swings. I know I react to news and trade accordingly--what else is there unless you are into complex stochastics that I doubt even the technical analysts can fathom.

Its just weird to me that a slew of very big bad negative news drives the market 200 points up. Bernanke's ignored perhaps? Jobless rise of no consequence? Pessimism hits an all time low and people BUY stocks? I don't think so somehow. I am wondering if the governments are buying to keep a lid on things? Don't forget, we are talking chump change to alter the stock markets compared with the FOREX that does more trade in value in a day than stocks do all year.

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I have the impression that most brokers are easily spooked - they hear something, react then go away, have a drink and a kip and wake up the following morning having completely erased the past 24 hours from their memory.

Cannot remember where I read it but it was along the lines of... The market only has two memories, short and none.

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This much is true but what DRIVES such wild swings. I know I react to news and trade accordingly--what else is there unless you are into complex stochastics that I doubt even the technical analysts can fathom.

Its just weird to me that a slew of very big bad negative news drives the market 200 points up. Bernanke's ignored perhaps? Jobless rise of no consequence? Pessimism hits an all time low and people BUY stocks? I don't think so somehow. I am wondering if the governments are buying to keep a lid on things? Don't forget, we are talking chump change to alter the stock markets compared with the FOREX that does more trade in value in a day than stocks do all year.

Mas and individual Psychology drives all stock market action and the human brain is complex, Your opinion and reaction to news has zero impact on anyone elses , its personal, someone buying in Brazil may have completely different things impacting on them at that moment in time you are making a decision which is why news which has a million interpretations but is ultimately interpreted by one person after the event is generally irrelevant

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Recession was apparently cancelled in Paris this afternoon--no wonder the markets are soaring! Silly me!

Air show orders fuel economy hopes
Tim Hepher, 17:15, Thursday 22 July 2010
PARIS (
Reuters
) - Europe's Airbus (Paris: NL0000235190 - news)
pronounced the recession over on Thursday
after wrapping up the busier-than-expected Farnborough Airshow with a $3 billion (1.96 billion pound)-plus order for dozens of jets from Virgin boss Richard Branson.
Euro zone consumer
confidence hits 26-month high
16:24, Thursday 22 July 2010
BRUSSELS (
Reuters
) - Consumer confidence in the euro zone climbed to a 26-month high in July as the currency area is shaking off the debt crisis, figures showed on Thursday, but its longer-term outlook remains pessimistic.
Edited by Realistbear

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well, you dont put your money in a failing housing market, so you put it into shares..Et Voila!...shares rise.

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Doesn't the bad news make QE more likely, and QE makes the market happy as they can buy shares with cheap money. Good news makes the market happy as shares inflate.

I must say, the whole concept of what money actually is sure isn't that clear to me anymore. I can see QE being toyed with for the next 5 years ... it's a new level to pull and new effects to measure ...

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Doesn't the bad news make QE more likely, and QE makes the market happy as they can buy shares with cheap money. Good news makes the market happy as shares inflate.

I must say, the whole concept of what money actually is sure isn't that clear to me anymore. I can see QE being toyed with for the next 5 years ... it's a new level to pull and new effects to measure ...

I think the US wants to QE2 but us and the Eurozone simply cannot afford it. If we are not careful the US printing could break us and the Eurozone.

The US takes being the Reserve currency for granted.

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Doesn't the bad news make QE more likely, and QE makes the market happy as they can buy shares with cheap money. Good news makes the market happy as shares inflate.

I must say, the whole concept of what money actually is sure isn't that clear to me anymore. I can see QE being toyed with for the next 5 years ... it's a new level to pull and new effects to measure ...

nah, QE was about banks being illiquid.

now they are awash with cash.

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nah, QE was about banks being illiquid.

now they are awash with cash.

. . . and if they don't loan money, they don't control anything or skim. Deflationists have it right in the very immediate short term, but it won't be long before money velocity increase with consequent MENTALIST inflation.

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I think the US wants to QE2 but us and the Eurozone simply cannot afford it. If we are not careful the US printing could break us and the Eurozone.

The US takes being the Reserve currency for granted.

So why does QE break us ? (A genuine question)

If the BoE used it to buy company debt rather than just bailing banks then I guess it could support business ? That would be non-deflationary rather than inflationary perhaps ? The danger is no company would want to come off zirp debt I guess.

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nah, QE was about banks being illiquid.

now they are awash with cash.

So QE2 would just need a new reason for it to happen ? If only they could engineer a crash in asset values for something like, say, houses. I'd vote for that.

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So QE2 would just need a new reason for it to happen ? If only they could engineer a crash in asset values for something like, say, houses. I'd vote for that.

they need QE2 if the bond market wont buy US Government debt.

it will have to be hidden from view, otherwise its just printing.

If its just printing, why would anyone lend to the US? the payback would be worthless.

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So why does QE break us ? (A genuine question)

If the BoE used it to buy company debt rather than just bailing banks then I guess it could support business ? That would be non-deflationary rather than inflationary perhaps ? The danger is no company would want to come off zirp debt I guess.

For the same reason in the months running up to the election that the Bond markets were getting very worrying about Brown's constant print print talk which resulted in Darling going public on his worries, having vocal and leaked rows with Brown over it, the Pound tanking, etc, etc.

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QE is, like totally, so last week:

Dow soars as US bellwethers Caterpillar, 3M and UPS deliver double-digit growth
^DJI 10,331.30 +210.77
James Quinn in New York, 18:18, Thursday 22 July 2010
Profits at some of America's biggest and best known companies soared in the second quarter in the latest sign the global economy is continuing to rebound from recession lows, lifting the Dow Jones (news) 2pc.
FTSE 100 jumps 1.9pc on Rolls-Royce contract win, bullish US corporate results
18:25, Thursday 22 July 2010
Contract wins were in focus as the blue-chip index surged by another 1.9pc as Rolls-Royce shot the top of the leaderboard after winning a $420m order at list prices from Garuda Indonesia Airlines.

The rebound is locked in.

Edited by Realistbear

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Like, thoe yesterday, tut:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bernanke-s-bearish-outlook-rattles-us-investors-tele-85a4289b4bd4.html?x=0

James "jim" Quinn, US Business Editor, 18:34, Thursday 22 July 2010

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, warned of unusually uncertain prospects and a somewhat weaker outlook for the US economy in comments that sent American investors running for cover.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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