Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

Surprised no one has picked up on these stories or perhaps there is a bit of head in sand? Not sure where this leaves a HPC now, bad day for the bears...

Low interest rates to stay...

Low interest rates and more printing £££

Cheaper to buy....

Cheaper to buy

I keep meaning to change my status away from bear..I no longer believe there will be a HPC, the banks and the government simply cannot (literally) afford one: if by some chance there is a price crash then the lack of mortgage funding means only the rich will benefit from it: people are being deliberately disenfranchised and pushed into the rental sector as a means of disposessing and empoverishing them: you children will live in wildly over priced rented acommodation and their landlord will be someone like Legal and General..sorry, but given some massive and unknown event (a revolution would be good), thats the way things are going, thats whats planned for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure where this leaves a HPC now, bad day for the bears...

According to your status panel, you're a bear. Or are you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Bank of England may resume its 'money printing' program in an attempt to fend off a potential double-dip recession, minutes from the last rate-setting meeting have revealed.

The only reason we left the recession was because they printed money. Even at that we struggled to get positive growth figures. So now they may justify more printing to stave off a double-dip. Priceless. Who appoints these fvcktards?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

monthly mortgage interest is only one cost of home ownership.

first, and most important, there is the cost of doing it in the first place. you need a 20% or more deposit.

next, theres the capital repayment cost...these guys NEVER remember that.

Then theres the insurance costs.

then theres a costs for repairs and renewals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of people on here said that once they start they will be unable to stop. I for one hoped that a Tory government would put an end to this silliness, but with Merv 'Xerox' King hanging around in the copy room it is starting to look like we are screwed (again).

How the hell can we have both austerity and printing at the same time? So we are supposed to be living within our means but at the same time creating fantasy growth with funny money? Me no understand :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices will fall when people stop spending and borrowing..........this can not continue, they are making things worse for all our futures and our children's futures, they are trying to force us to spend our savings...fair enough can cope with low interest rates, but the QE will devalue savings and create higher prices via loss in confidence in the £....we are standing between a rock and a hard place frozen there is nowhere to turn, they keep rearranging the deckchairs....the greed and excess of the past will have to be paid for, for the most part the innocent will end up paying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep the faith, my brothers.

Here are a couple of scenarios:

1. The public sector cuts of the coalition gubamunt are carried through with much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Huge numbers of public sector workers either get less pay or lose their jobs. Benefits are cut too. Increase in people unable to pay mortgages. Increase in home for sale as people try to downsize. Downward pressure on house prices. Increase in bad debts for banks. Gubamunt tries to prevent banks repossessing, but the banks are suffering from capital constraints. Gubamunt realises it can't afford to rebail the banking sector. Banks rush for the door. High number of repossessions. House prices collapse.

2. The public sector cuts of the coalition gubamunt cause such pain in the public sector that the unions cause massive strikes and unrest. Coalition falls apart in the face of the strain. LibDem back-bench MPs side with Labour for a vote of no-confidence. Re-election called. Sterling collapses, gilt yields surge. Labour government elected promising electoral reform (for the LibDems) and a review of all the cuts to public spending. Sterling continues to weaken. Significant inflation from import prices drives unions to demand wage increases. Labour government gives in. Wider imbalance between public and private sector pay. Tax receipts fall. Populatist anti-bank legislation. Public sector finances look shaky. Inflation expectations grow. Interest rates eventually increase sharply to protect Sterling. House prices collapse.

I sadly expect the second scenario to be more likely. But neither are good for house prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was a bear, and still want to be one, but after x number of years waiting I am losing my patience to be honest.

We've had the most bearish month since 2008, house prices have been falling for 3 months now according to Halifax and you pick out a couple of slightly bullish articles and say your losing your patience?

How on earth did you cope when it was relentless HPI and bullish news for the last 12 months?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most depressing thing is that outside of this forum I don't know anyone who is bearish about prices, all my friends, relatives etc say that prices might stall this year but they'll be no crash.

Been at local (Bristol) auction rooms and they are still packed with people. I know lots of people with big deposits willing and ready to charge in.

Whatever anyone thinks where I live there is a huge amount of pent up demand and they aren't building many houses either!

Sorry, just rather depressing!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the second article.

But the group said that while buying a property is currently cheaper than renting in the majority of places, based on a mortgage rate of 5%, if interest rates rise by 1% and rents stay the same, it would be cheaper to rent a home in 80% of the locations looked at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of people on here said that once they start they will be unable to stop. I for one hoped that a Tory government would put an end to this silliness, but with Merv 'Xerox' King hanging around in the copy room it is starting to look like we are screwed (again).

How the hell can we have both austerity and printing at the same time? So we are supposed to be living within our means but at the same time creating fantasy growth with funny money? Me no understand :blink:

removed post due to dodgy stats! :blink: Edited by Sir John Steed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most depressing thing is that outside of this forum I don't know anyone who is bearish about prices, all my friends, relatives etc say that prices might stall this year but they'll be no crash.

Been at local (Bristol) auction rooms and they are still packed with people. I know lots of people with big deposits willing and ready to charge in.

Whatever anyone thinks where I live there is a huge amount of pent up demand and they aren't building many houses either!

Sorry, just rather depressing!

Why did they not charge in at the "bottom", seems silly to wait until they are so near peak again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most depressing thing is that outside of this forum I don't know anyone who is bearish about prices, all my friends, relatives etc say that prices might stall this year but they'll be no crash.

Been at local (Bristol) auction rooms and they are still packed with people. I know lots of people with big deposits willing and ready to charge in.

Whatever anyone thinks where I live there is a huge amount of pent up demand and they aren't building many houses either!

Sorry, just rather depressing!

People are buying because there is no other place to put their money, gold and land where money is pumped when fiat is suspect.....it is more of a save haven than a hope for a quick return...they will have a long wait...fear not you have not missed the boat, a good deposit is key and what you may lose in purchase power, property will not have gained in real terms. ;)

Edited by winkie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever anyone thinks where I live there is a huge amount of pent up demand and they aren't building many houses either!

Don't forget the huger pent up supply! I'm not even going to bother referring to the second half of that sentence.

Do you have anymore flawed HPI bull cliches?

Edited by Pent Up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most depressing thing is that outside of this forum I don't know anyone who is bearish about prices, all my friends, relatives etc say that prices might stall this year but they'll be no crash.

Been at local (Bristol) auction rooms and they are still packed with people. I know lots of people with big deposits willing and ready to charge in.

Whatever anyone thinks where I live there is a huge amount of pent up demand and they aren't building many houses either!

Sorry, just rather depressing!

Spot on, im with you exactly on this i cant see anything but 20% real Y on Y returns from here with houseprices, there are just too many canny investors in the UK particularly in the area around Maidstone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spot on, im with you exactly on this i cant see anything but 20% real Y on Y returns from here with houseprices, there are just too many canny investors in the UK particularly in the area around Maidstone

Indeed, don't forget that they aren't making any more land, we are only a small island and the population is increasing! As soon as prices drop a bit everyone will pile back in! Get 'on the ladder' while you can, don't miss the boat! Can't lose with bricks and mortar!

3 months of falling prices? (halifax) Mortgage approvals low and falling?, less mortgage to be available over the next quarter?(BOE) supply surging, demand falling? (RICS) biggest austerity measures since WW2? (camerlegg)

Nah, house prices always rise innit, now wheres bent Bob the estate agents number? I'm going to offer 10% above asking price on everything he's got!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be fair. I would imagine that even Hitler in his final days in the bunker had moments when he thought everything would work out just fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The degree to which the government is prepared to cling on by its fingernails is amazing. The current 0.5% base rate is the lowest ever, an undreamt of low; pumping £200bn in QE into the economy was an amazing action, prior to 2007 printing money would have been considered economic suicide. Back then we had things like "moral hazard".

Two trigger events are long awaited: a bond strike, and a sterling crisis. There's no sign of either on the horizon. If anything the coalition's fiscal policy is making them less likely by the day. The markets seem to be willing to overlook RPI running at 5% or more and the PSBR at £150bn for year after year without end.

We are "suffering" from the fact that the world's largest economy (the USA) is in the same boat as us (massive deficit, QE) so punters have nowhere obvious to flee to, so they stay put. If America balanced its books and raised base rates to 5% we'd be shafted. Every penny would leave the country pronto. But in the world of the fiscally blind the fiscally one-eyed seems like a good bet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The degree to which the government is prepared to cling on by its fingernails is amazing. snip

I do beleive we've just had an election....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.