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richardfoster

Is The Market Really Going To Crash?

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I have just had a very heated debate with two of my well educated work colleagues regarding house prices. I stood my ground with my newly obtained knowledge from this forum and other web sites.

My boss who has argued the three factors, interest rates, inflation and unemployment are all low. Hence an all out crash is not possible because of the solid state of our economy.

I argued the debt / MEW / BTL case and that house prices are 6 times the average salary, FTBs being priced out the market and also the volatility if interest rates changed. Response being people can afford to pay it off so it's not a problem, and the economy is stable so interest rates will not change.

With regard to FTBs the response was they are building more affordable housing, although I said building 60k flats on land fill sites did nothing to close the gap.

Also house are not selling gave the response 'three houses in my street have sold for there asking price in the past six weeks - depends on the location'

Agreeing to disagree it still begs the question - the economy is in much better shape than before the previous crashes - and with the 'golden' three factors all so low, ignoring previous cyclical trend, is it possible that there will be a small correction, or do recent statistics confirm a crash is inevitable?

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I have just had a very heated debate with two of my well educated work colleagues regarding house prices. I stood my ground with my newly obtained knowledge from this forum and other web sites.

My boss who has argued the three factors, interest rates, inflation and unemployment are all low. Hence an all out crash is not possible because of the solid state of our economy.

I argued the debt / MEW / BTL case and that house prices are 6 times the average salary, FTBs being priced out the market and also the volatility if interest rates changed. Response being people can afford to pay it off so it's not a problem, and the economy is stable so interest rates will not change.

With regard to FTBs the response was they are building more affordable housing, although I said building 60k flats on land fill sites did nothing to close the gap.

Also house are not selling gave the response 'three houses in my street have sold for there asking price in the past six weeks - depends on the location'

Agreeing to disagree it still begs the question - the economy is in much better shape than before the previous crashes - and with the 'golden' three factors all so low, ignoring previous cyclical trend, is it possible that there will be a small correction, or do recent statistics confirm a crash is inevitable?

But you ex boss is a twit... ;)

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the uk, and world, economy is vunerable to external factors such as the us economy/dollar imploding next year

this will probably coinciding with an iran incident for maximum chaos

Edited by integral

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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