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Lepista

Mortgage Approvals Out Today

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previous month was 50k

I'm sure us HPC'ers can do better than that.

I'm thinking 45k... hugely bearish news round about at the minute, don't expect this to be any different

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Im more interested in completions.

you can have a chain of 4, all approved, let down by 1 who loses a job, lied, suddenly turned down, or unexpected costs and so on.

the longer the chains, worse it gets.

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previous month was 50k

I'm sure us HPC'ers can do better than that.

I'm thinking 45k... hugely bearish news round about at the minute, don't expect this to be any different

what was last year's figure?

and 2007?

It would be good to see a trend line.

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previous month was 50k

I'm sure us HPC'ers can do better than that.

I'm thinking 45k... hugely bearish news round about at the minute, don't expect this to be any different

These are June approvals. Forecast is 52k. I'd go with a drop to about 48 or 49k.

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what was last year's figure?

and 2007?

It would be good to see a trend line.

Don't know the exact figures but it's up on last year and down about 40% on 07. Check the boe website.

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Perhaps worth pointing out that the data reported this morning will not be the full 'official' mortgage approvals for June 2010. Today's release is the BoE's 'Trends in Lending' report and only covers some 70%-80% of the UK mortgage market (specifically the data are based on info reported by Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Nationwide and RBS).

Unlike the data in the 'Lending to Individuals' report (due on 29th July) today's mortgage approvals numbers are gross and therefore do not take into account subsequent cancellations.

Last year's number (June 2009) was 51,100 on initial release.

There is no equivalent figure for 2007 – the BoE only started this series in Dec 2008.

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These are June approvals. Forecast is 52k. I'd go with a drop to about 48 or 49k.

Around 48k would be my guess.

48k well done.

A nice drop lovely :)

Edited by Pent Up

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BBC radio just proudly announced this:

Gross mortgage lending up 15% in June

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2674

“There are signs of house prices stabilising and more properties coming onto the market following the abolition of home information packs. This may improve liquidity in the market, but transaction levels are subdued and likely to remain so while access to credit remains constrained house prices remain ridiculously high..."
<_< Edited by red

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BBC radio just proudly announced this:

All over their website too

Odd that the 0.6% drop that Rightmove announced yesterday went completely unreported by the BBC <_<

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All over their website too

Odd that the 0.6% drop that Rightmove announced yesterday went completely unreported by the BBC <_<

To be fair, no news outlet reported it at all. I think everyone now accepts it's asking prices only & is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Completions, sale prices and mortgage advances get more coverage, and rightly so.

Gross lending monetary amount up but the total amount down. Are these the same months? Or maybe the average amount being lent is going up, which I would expect since FTBs are still mostly priced out.

Edited by deflation

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To be fair, no news outlet reported it at all. I think everyone now accepts it's asking prices only & is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Completions, sale prices and mortgage advances get more coverage, and rightly so.

Gross lending monetary amount up but the total amount down. Are these the same months? Or maybe the average amount being lent is going up, which I would expect since FTBs are still mostly priced out.

It's the same month. The cml I think only use their members data which is around 70% of the Market were as the BOE use all mortgage lending. Athough these are preliminary figures. See freetraders post above.

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And Bloomberg.

IIRC the Beeb never report RM stats on the way up or the way down. I think we had this discussion a couple of years back.

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Not sure when Spline updates his charts but this was from last month. We need to add the point for 48k this month.

V. close to crossing the 'neutral level of approvals' line I would have thought.

Yep, it does look like crossover time.

Can't wait for Spline to update the chart :)

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The Telegraph, Daily Mail & Sky News reported it.

I only meant the TV, but that'll teach me to go by hearsay. Ingermany on the RM post yesterday said no-one had covered it.

I don't watch Sky News, a matter of principle, a bit like those who won't watch the BBC news. Agreed that the BBC never, to my recollection, use RM's data whether it's up or down.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-20/mortgage-approvals-fell-in-june-as-lending-tightened-confidence-dwindled.html

Mortgage Approvals Fell in June as Lending Tightened, Confidence Dwindled
By Svenja O’Donnell - Jul 20, 2010
U.K. mortgage approvals fell in June as tighter lending conditions and weaker confidence curbed housing demand, preliminary Bank of England data showed.
The number of loans granted was 48,000, compared with 51,000 in May, according to a sample from the central bank’s panel of six major lenders released in London today.
“Demand continued to be constrained by the restrictions on mortgage finance,” the Bank of England said in a statement. “Looking forward, the major U.K. lenders expect demand for secured lending to be flat over the rest of the year, partly reflecting weak confidence among potential homebuyers.”

Not much in our press about this good news. Who knows if it is accurate--banks might be covering up the really bad news. Can't trust 'em and they don't like it up 'em.

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Not sure when Spline updates his charts but this was from last month. We need to add the point for 48k this month.

V. close to crossing the 'neutral level of approvals' line I would have thought.

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor/

kq_jun2010.png

I think as we've seen 3 months of falling prices from halifax that the neutral level should be higher more like the low 50s. Still it will be good to see a cross when it's updated.

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Not sure when Spline updates his charts but this was from last month. We need to add the point for 48k this month.

V. close to crossing the 'neutral level of approvals' line I would have thought.

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor/

Just to reiterate the point I made in post #8, today’s number is not the approvals figure that Spline is plotting on that chart.

The full seasonally-adjusted mortgage approvals figure for all lenders, net of cancellations, will be published by the BoE on 29th July. The number is likely to be close to 48K (probably slightly less if the recent trend persists), but Spline can’t update his chart until later next week.

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Im more interested in completions.

you can have a chain of 4, all approved, let down by 1 who loses a job, lied, suddenly turned down, or unexpected costs and so on.

the longer the chains, worse it gets.

As i understand it, it includes people making multple applications with different because they are unsure they'll get a mortgage or "fair" valuation.

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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