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Mega

Its Been A Bust Week For Us Hpc-Ers...lets Recap

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Ok:-

Market has turned (beyond real debate now)

MSM is no long trying to hide the fact

MSM has now said 25% falls on the way.

The stage is set, we have mega over surply........limted mortages & the money is going to get tighter & tighter from here......unemplyment rocketting.....20% VAT on the way.........just how bad could this get?

As i see it, BTLers are going to KILLED & those whom bought in the last 5 years are going to sitting in houses not worth what the paied for them. 20-30% underwater....will they "sit" there paying or decied to "bale out"?............then by 2012 RATES will start to rise....just to had FUN to party. I am wondering if Schiff is right when he said prices will do a "Japan" & "Do the round trip".......................?

Mike

Edited by Mega

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Rates rising?

We'll be lucky to be at 0.75% by 2015.

Interest rate rises won't cause a crash , it will be the private sector shedding jobs by cutting their top line that will cause house prices to drop very slowly. A rate rise would bust the banks overnight.

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My feeling (and i been wrong before) is the BOE/FED "Deal" to buy each others debt comes to an end. Either by agreement or disater........

At that point the £ if not already in freefall dives, the BOE then has no choice.............they will have deleveraged as much as poss.......whats left will simply have to DIE!

Mike

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Rates rising?

We'll be lucky to be at 0.75% by 2015.

Interest rate rises won't cause a crash , it will be the private sector shedding jobs by cutting their top line that will cause house prices to drop very slowly. A rate rise would bust the banks overnight.

Agreed that base rates aren't likely to rise much. That doesn't mean that mortgage rates won't rise though - they're already a long way above base rate and the coming SLS squeeze is quite likely to increase that spread further as would a profit squeeze resulting from higher default rates in prices drop for other reasons (e.g. unemployment and/or falling wages).

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Ok:-

Market has turned (beyond real debate now)

MSM is no long trying to hide the fact

MSM has now said 25% falls on the way.

The stage is set, we have mega over surply........limted mortages & the money is going to get tighter & tighter from here......unemplyment rocketting.....20% VAT on the way.........just how bad could this get?

As i see it, BTLers are going to KILLED & those whom bought in the last 5 years are going to sitting in houses not worth what the paied for them. 20-30% underwater....will they "sit" there paying or decied to "bale out"?............then by 2012 RATES will start to rise....just to had FUN to party. I am wondering if Schiff is right when he said prices will do a "Japan" & "Do the round trip".......................?

Mike

Im not sure we have oversupply yet.

forced sales are still being prevented by taxpayer bails for the losers(winners).

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How long before the banks "pull the plug", and revert to Maximum loans of 60-65%,

in an attempt to save their balance sheets?

We saw that in Hong Kong in 2008, and prices fell 25% in six months (or less)

Dr Bubb obviously your a "chartist" and your analysis is data led .

I'm interested to know what your economic guts say is coming to the UK.[ just Uk]

Will our Govt muddle through or is a dark economic depression in store.

I'm not particularly interested in house prices anymore.

My concern is UK unemployment, and the future "look" of our "lifestyle" [ i accept

economic negativity & hpi is interconnected]

Edited by Zngland

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For me its differant, i want quality of life, which is hard if your place & friends/familey is over run by BTL's let by nobheads to inncity scum .....they can't possably make money on the deal, just make life diffecult for everyone. Now i can see light @ the end of the tunnel.........house prcies crash, banks repo BTL's...good working people "trapped" by this insane Brownite bubble will be free to move out of rent in crappy areas....& they unworthy can be flushed back "home".

Mike

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How long before the banks "pull the plug", and revert to Maximum loans of 60-65%,

in an attempt to save their balance sheets?

We saw that in Hong Kong in 2008, and prices fell 25% in six months (or less)

My guess is that they're secretly doing that already. Maybe they'll allow a few higher LTVs to keep face but my guess is these will be strictly rationed to low multiples of income.

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Could be even busier next week.

Monday: rightmove HPI

Tuesday: BOE mortgage approvals

Wednesday: MPC minutes

Friday: BBA mortgage approvals

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My guess is that they're secretly doing that already. Maybe they'll allow a few higher LTVs to keep face but my guess is these will be strictly rationed to low multiples of income.

I think the govt should step in and start offering 200% ltv to keep things ticking over

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For me its differant, i want quality of life, which is hard if your place & friends/familey is over run by BTL's let by nobheads to inncity scum .....they can't possably make money on the deal, just make life diffecult for everyone. Now i can see light @ the end of the tunnel.........house prcies crash, banks repo BTL's...good working people "trapped" by this insane Brownite bubble will be free to move out of rent in crappy areas....& they unworthy can be flushed back "home".

Mike

There's quite a sense of entitlement going on there.

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Paid for a house WELL outside inn-city scum............nice place, little or no crime............now almost as bad as the inn-city. Why?, because BTLers have bought up hand full of homes making them unaffordable to REAL working people, then putting slime in that might get close to covering the rent...while their "Investment" grows.

Ha Ha Ha...............p*ss off & go bust!

Banks will start to Repo very soon & REAL working people that now rents are welcome....

Mike

Edited by Mega

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Well, negative as the press reports have been, I don't get any mainstream indication as yet that people are accepting the market is going down.

When I start hearing conversations in the coffee room about the falls in prices that's when I'm confident it's hit. At the moment all the people I speak to are blissfully unaware.

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BTLers have bought up hand full of homes making them unaffordable to REAL working people, then putting slime in

Eh ? So you're saying those that are renting from the BTLers aren't REAL working people, despite being able to pay more for their rent than the people you claim are priced out of the market.. And renters are "slime" ?

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Guest Steve Cook

Paid for a house WELL outside inn-city scum............nice place, little or no crime............now almost as bad as the inn-city. Why?, because BTLers have bought up hand full of homes making them unaffordable to REAL working people, then putting slime in that might get close to covering the rent...while their "Investment" grows....

Your sweeping attitude to working people who rent is disgraceful and, although I am certain the irony will be entirely lost on you, is completely in cultural keeping with the kind of "f*ck-you-jack-I'm-alright" attitude of the of BTL landlords you claim to so despise.

Edited by Steve Cook

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No, look i want house prices DOWN!

I want hard working honest people to be able to buy (if they wish) in nice areas.

I want cheaper rents.

i DON'T want the scum of the inncitys whom have NEVER & will NEVER worked to be housed in nice areas, they crap & they can live in crap areas.

Mike

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Guest Steve Cook

No, look i want house prices DOWN!

I want hard working honest people to be able to buy (if they wish) in nice areas.

I want cheaper rents.

i DON'T want the scum of the inncitys whom have NEVER & will NEVER worked to be housed in nice areas, they crap & they can live in crap areas.

Mike

Go away and have a think

Come back and read what you have written

Then go away and have another think

We're all angry Mega. We have good reason to be

Just remember who your real enemy is, though, and resist the temptation to go for the easy scape-goat.

Or don't. It's your choice.

Edited by Steve Cook

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Could be even busier next week.

Monday: rightmove HPI

Tuesday: BOE mortgage approvals

Wednesday: MPC minutes

Friday: BBA mortgage approvals

So much to anticipate and (hopefully) savour.

I still can't believe that things are finally going the HPC anticipated way, happy days.

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Guest Steve Cook

So much to anticipate and (hopefully) savour.

I still can't believe that things are finally going the HPC anticipated way, happy days.

I bleeding well hope so. I nearly gave up hope.

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I bleeding well hope so. I nearly gave up hope.

I've been whistling "Always look on the bright side of life" since 2003 (with an extra loud rendition in 2005 and 2007 when HPC almost happened...)

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Yes, it has been busy, but as others have said, its still not mainstream yet, although I did read both The Times and the FT today and both has bearish house price articles, as did todays Telegraph.

I think as it becomes more mainstream, public sentiment will move more and helping to bring prices down further....

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Yes, it has been busy, but as others have said, its still not mainstream yet, although I did read both The Times and the FT today and both has bearish house price articles, as did todays Telegraph.

I think as it becomes more mainstream, public sentiment will move more and helping to bring prices down further....

Too right, it isn't mainstream yet, but the thing is that a change in sentiment towards house prices does indeed seem to be happening.

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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