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Johnny

Great 2003-2005 Crash In Britains Housing Market

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Apologies if this has been discussed previously....

Just read this article by Andrew Oswald, Professor of Economics, Warwick University.

Its an article written in November 2002 and describes factors that could produce a HPC although it seems to have taken 1 or 2 years longer than he predicted. Its very bearish but worth a read.

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economic...ancynov2002.pdf

:lol:

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and latter-day BTL ARE now realising they are making a loss!!

it's unfolding as our learned friend had foreseen.However,as his article was dated 2003 and the real peak wasn't arived at until a year later,I think the fall will be more pronounced than even he was anticipating!!

and as to the correlation between stock and housing markets....that's changed.

the stock market does not really equate to the UK(domestic)economies prospects.

..most of the big guns are global now,so global growth is the driver.....and there is sector-swapping happening like never before...hence the bubble culture.....it's something we will have to get used to!

Edited by oracle

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This was discussed on this forum many moons ago. However, you are right to dust it down and bring it to life again. It will be interesting to see as time goes on how many of his predictions come true.

It is practically impossible to predict the exact timing of the crash but the methodology of it is quite academic and he seems better than the rest at this. The difficulty with his predictions are that the real magic (or skill) comes in the timing prediction which noone has quite got right as yet (particularly him). However, I do admire him for committing his predictions to writing and speaking his mind. There have been too many people towing the party line not wanting to call time at the party even when they realise that things aren't going quite to plan (cf. today's headline about retail being the worst for 25 years ...)

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This was discussed on this forum many moons ago.  However, you are right to dust it down and bring it to life again.  It will be interesting to see as time goes on how many of his predictions come true. 

I pointed out s few major flaws at the time I recall.

The truth is you cannot go by any report - you have to go with the agenda hidden or otherwise of the government. He bases everything on historical ratios - thats why he was and is wrong - he should look just a bit further back in history, perhaps then he may to figure out that we are heading into a society dominated by a landed elite with huge equity and connections, not merit, determining income.

Edited by brainclamp

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I pointed out s few major flaws at the time I recall.

The truth is you cannot go by any report - you have to go with the agenda hidden or otherwise of the government. He bases everything on historical ratios - thats why he was and is wrong - he should look just a bit further back in history, perhaps then he may to figure out that we are heading into a society dominated by a landed elite with huge equity and connections, not merit, determining income.

I hope you're wrong on that, I've had enough of this "meritocracy" to last me a lifetime!

Edit = Spelling

Edited by firebug

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Apologies if this has been discussed previously....

Just read this article by Andrew Oswald, Professor of Economics, Warwick University.

Its an article written in November 2002 and describes factors that could produce a HPC although  it seems to have taken 1 or 2 years longer than he predicted. Its very bearish but worth a read.

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economic...ancynov2002.pdf

:lol:

It looks like Professor Andrew Oswald's reputation is about to take a serious knock because I can't see a crash occurring this year. He has got a lot of egg on his face and I think that he is keeping his head down because alot of people took his advice and sold their properties back in 2002 and are now kicking themselves silly and deeply regreting taking this mans advice.

You won't see him on the telly or anywhere else from now on.

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This was discussed on this forum many moons ago.  However, you are right to dust it down and bring it to life again.  It will be interesting to see as time goes on how many of his predictions come true. 

It is practically impossible to predict the exact timing of the crash but the methodology of it is quite academic and he seems better than the rest at this.  The difficulty with his predictions are that the real magic (or skill) comes in the timing prediction which noone has quite got right as yet (particularly him).  However, I do admire him for committing his predictions to writing and speaking his mind.  There have been too many people towing the party line not wanting to call time at the party even when they realise that things aren't going quite to plan (cf. today's headline about retail being the worst for 25 years ...)

Andrew Oswald published an updated note to this paper in Jan 2004

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economic...singjan2004.pdf

For those who can't be bothered to read the link

"I think that although I may look wrong now, in fact the fundamentals of the housing market look worse than a year ago. Most of the indicators of an overheated housing market have become more extreme.".....

"Actually the strategy I recommended in 2003 would have done

people well. I argued that for those with the flexibility to do so, it was

sensible to sell houses and, if you had the courage, to put the

proceeds into shares.".....

"My kinds of forecasts about the national housing market have so far

been incorrect. But for how long?"

Richard.

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Andrew Oswald published an updated note to this paper in Jan 2004

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economic...singjan2004.pdf

For those who can't be bothered to read the link

"I think that although I may look wrong now, in fact the fundamentals of the housing market look worse than a year ago. Most of the indicators of an overheated housing market have become more extreme.".....

"Actually the strategy I recommended in 2003 would have done

people well. I argued that for those with the flexibility to do so, it was

sensible to sell houses and, if you had the courage, to put the

proceeds into shares.".....

"My kinds of forecasts about the national housing market have so far

been incorrect. But for how long?"

Richard.

He will always be wrong as he ignores the most fundemental law of economics - the bit found on page 1 of the textbooks.

Supply and demand.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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