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Ah-so

Ft Hard Copy Today

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FT had a full, very bearish page on house prices.

It did carry a map of the UK with a "annual % change" broken down by area. The highest % increase was in Wales and the North, showing an annual increase of 33% since Q2 2004. The lowest was the London outer metropolitan showing an increase of just 9.3%.

At the bottom it says "source: Nationwide Building Society", which is a bit odd because their yr on yr growth is now down to about 5%.

Looks to me like Nationwide is now pumping out dodgy data for overworked hacks to print and not ask too many questions. Tut tut.

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Looks to me like Nationwide is now pumping out dodgy data for overworked hacks to print and not ask too many questions. Tut tut.

I was wondering about the mortgage-based surveys today. They seem to be remarkably resiliant. The best explanation I could come up with is this: As the number of first time buyers reduces, the proportion of upsizing/downsizing chains increases. Downsizers are generally retirees with little or no mortgage looking to release equity. Upsizers rely upon funding their bigger house with a larger mortgate.

So, as FTB's disappear, the proportion of houses further up the "ladder" increases in these surveys, skewing them upwards.

Any thoughts?

T&T

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I was wondering about the mortgage-based surveys today. They seem to be remarkably resiliant. The best explanation I could come up with is this: As the number of first time buyers reduces, the proportion of upsizing/downsizing chains increases. Downsizers are generally retirees with little or no mortgage looking to release equity. Upsizers rely upon funding their bigger house with a larger mortgate.

So, as FTB's disappear, the proportion of houses further up the "ladder" increases in these surveys, skewing them upwards.

Any thoughts?

They're mix adjusted, to avoid precisely the effect you're talking about.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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