It's Nice To Catch Up- With News Like 20% Drops Making Me Go All Gooey

[Guest KingCharles1st]

So what is your own personal feeling regarding the ongoing price/value of bricks and mortar?

[plummet expert]

So what is your own personal feeling regarding the ongoing price/value of bricks and mortar?

They will fall from now until at least spring 2013. The deepest falls will be from June 2011 to April 2012. I expect minimum 20/25% falls with some areas being as much as 40%. I don't expect falls to reach Detroits best of 90%, anywhere in the UK. After 2012, falls will be modest and prices will hover for a couple of years before very modest yoy rises resume.

[newbonic]

They will fall from now until at least spring 2013. The deepest falls will be from June 2011 to April 2012. I expect minimum 20/25% falls with some areas being as much as 40%. I don't expect falls to reach Detroits best of 90%, anywhere in the UK. After 2012, falls will be modest and prices will hover for a couple of years before very modest yoy rises resume.

I also expect falls, starting from about now. Followed by a wave of IVAs and bankruptcies as forced sellers with -ve equity have to resort to just walking away. I know people who did this in the early 90s crash.

There may be a small number of Detroit style drops in some cases though - I'm thinking of hugely overpriced new build flats in dire inner city settings, that become essentially unsellable.

[prosto_zabrevi]

I am in two minds about this. On one hand I am seeing quite nice falls in previously HPC-immune areas like Salisbury, but on the other, a lot more houses seem to be going SSTC this month. Publicised repossessions are coming onto the market more in my areas. Every time I ring an EA about a viewing they assume first of all that I am an investment buyer rather than a homebuyer so perhaps investment buyers are making up much of the market at the moment. I think another six months might reveal which way things are going here.

( I look at Gloucestershire and Wiltshire at under 200K)

[Errol]

I think the wheels will come off more quickly than many people think.

[Pent Up]

I think the wheels will come off more quickly than many people think.

Me too. It's going quite quick now. 3 months of Halifax price falls all of a sudden. I'm also seeing some asking prices lower on new listings than existing ones here in Essex. I think it's over now just sit back and enjoy

[quinnbear]

Me too. It's going quite quick now. 3 months of Halifax price falls all of a sudden. I'm also seeing some asking prices lower on new listings than existing ones here in Essex. I think it's over now just sit back and enjoy

Here's hoping! I got excited in 2005 when things started to look like they were heading in the right direction. And then in 2007 with Northern Rock I almost wet my pants with the excitement. Needless to say, I was disappointed on both occasions by the eventual outcome. :angry:

So, as long as the Cleggeron doesn't decide to save the world we might finally get the house price correction (not a "crash", that word can't be mentioned in polite circles) that has been needed since about 2003.

If I am disappointed for a 3rd time I am not sure how I will cope!

QB

[bricor mortis]

It would be interesting to know peoples predictions for the market to end of December. I think the estimate mentioned in various quarters of around 5% down national average sounds about right.

There is no trigger for market capitulation and low volumes may distort the operation of market forces. I will be pleased with 5% off going in to 2011.

[Guest Steve Cook]

I think the wheels will come off more quickly than many people think.

Oh, I hope so Errol

[Guest Steve Cook]

I think the wheels will come off more quickly than many people think.

Oh, I hope so Errol

[NEO72]

I think the wheels will come off more quickly than many people think.

Completely agree. Anyone assuming nice gradual falls is completely underestimating the effect of sentiment. Its a lot easier for a seller to hold out for a better offer when they believe prices are on the march. And of course the inverse is true for buyers. Thats why this is all about momentum-MOM falls = negative sentiment in the media = greater falls. And eventually no positive spin can be put on it whatsoever.

I see the greatest falls coming this autumn/winter, followed by a prolonged decline for the next 5 years, fuelled by rising interest rates and long-term unemployment.

[Guest KingCharles1st]

I think the wheels will come off more quickly than many people think.

I remeber trying to sell my house in 1990- 91 (IIRC?) chased the market down- ok, stupid thing to do, but the SPEED at which the prices in the area plummeted was alarming.