Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

The Reign Of The Bear Began This Week

Recommended Posts

I just have a gut feeling that this will be the last bullish week for the FTSE, houses and UK bonds. Its starting to unravel and the momentum is being revealed in a run of "bad news" that is no longer being seen as a buy signal but rather a sell signal.

The week of 12th July, 2010 marks the turning point where the bears finally come out in force as the bulls shrink into hibernation or whatever bulls do when they go to kip for extended periods.

So what next?

Big correction in the stock markets.

Big drop in the Euro and Pound after weeks of rallying on non-news and cover-ups (stress test mularky).

The start of meaningful MoM house drops.

The Double dip confirmed.

The promised austerity finally sinks in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just have a gut feeling that this will be the last bullish week for the FTSE, houses and UK bonds. Its starting to unravel and the momentum is being revealed in a run of "bad news" that is no longer being seen as a buy signal but rather a sell signal.

The week of 12th July, 2010 marks the turning point where the bears finally come out in force as the bulls shrink into hibernation or whatever bulls do when they go to kip for extended periods.

So what next?

Big correction in the stock markets.

Big drop in the Euro and Pound after weeks of rallying on non-news and cover-ups (stress test mularky).

The start of meaningful MoM house drops.

The Double dip confirmed.

The promised austerity finally sinks in.

I do agree agree with a double dip. I could not believe how strong last weeks rally was. But around Lehman we had these massive moves in the market before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with RB in that this week feels like a turning point. I have never before heard, read and seen so much Bear material in the various media.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with RB in that this week feels like a turning point. I have never before heard, read and seen so much Bear material in the various media.

Great aint it!

Its coming.

Spiney.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just have a gut feeling that this will be the last bullish week for the FTSE, houses and UK bonds. Its starting to unravel and the momentum is being revealed in a run of "bad news" that is no longer being seen as a buy signal but rather a sell signal.

The week of 12th July, 2010 marks the turning point where the bears finally come out in force as the bulls shrink into hibernation or whatever bulls do when they go to kip for extended periods.

So what next?

Big correction in the stock markets.

Big drop in the Euro and Pound after weeks of rallying on non-news and cover-ups (stress test mularky).

The start of meaningful MoM house drops.

The Double dip confirmed.

The promised austerity finally sinks in.

How about a deal, If the FTSE reaches 5400 between now and the end of the month you never ever ever start another topic about the FTSE or about Gold or calling a top on HPC (i do appreciate that this will reduce the number of daily topics by half but its a price worth paying)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with RB in that this week feels like a turning point. I have never before heard, read and seen so much Bear material in the various media.

Me too, but we`ve been here before. However, this time it might be for real, maybe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How about a deal, If the FTSE reaches 5400 between now and the end of the month you never ever ever start another topic about the FTSE or about Gold or calling a top on HPC (i do appreciate that this will reduce the number of daily topics by half but its a price worth paying)

This could be interesting.

27yomlc1.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This could be interesting.

27yomlc1.gif

You know, I know, we know.....prepare yourself, dig deep and try to protect yourself and yours....the trailer is about to finish...the show must go on. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How about a deal, If the FTSE reaches 5400 between now and the end of the month you never ever ever start another topic about the FTSE or about Gold or calling a top on HPC (i do appreciate that this will reduce the number of daily topics by half but its a price worth paying)

+1

Please take him up on this one RB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote name='Realistbear' date='15 July 2010

Big correction in the stock markets.:

Governments will keep interest rates low?

Big drop in the Euro and Pound after weeks of rallying on non-news and cover-ups (stress test mularky).

what currency is not rubish?

The start of meaningful MoM house drops.

Just like the US?

The Double dip confirmed.

We are looking into the abiss now the Abiss is looking at us?

The promised austerity finally sinks in.

Exports must equal imports, is that possibe with a overpopulated under industrialized Country?

I think we are now at the tipping point of the greatest depression of all time. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been watching the FTSE closely for the last few weeks (foolish spreadbetter) and what I've noticed thus far as a newb is that the curve goes from 5400 - 4700 (aprox) and back again and it seems to do this irrespective of news. The news seems to come after to *justify* the movement. For example Dow plummets, then news comes out saying Markets worried about the Euro.

Although it looks to me that with each successive cycle the highest point is a little lower (like 4350 this time round).

And yes, agreed it's on it's way down again now - however I believe in around 7 to 10 days time it will once again rally and probably hit 4300.

Good news is my housing short I placed 2 months ago is now making money...yeehaaa!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been watching the FTSE closely for the last few weeks (foolish spreadbetter) and what I've noticed thus far as a newb is that the curve goes from 5400 - 4700 (aprox) and back again and it seems to do this irrespective of news. The news seems to come after to *justify* the movement. For example Dow plummets, then news comes out saying Markets worried about the Euro.

Although it looks to me that with each successive cycle the highest point is a little lower (like 4350 this time round).

And yes, agreed it's on it's way down again now - however I believe in around 7 to 10 days time it will once again rally and probably hit 4300.

Good news is my housing short I placed 2 months ago is now making money...yeehaaa!

As long as interest rates are low the share market will not crash to low.

Who is doing most of the buying and selling? Fund managers , banks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, I like RBs posts. Just can't see this kicking in until summer is over.

I like them too - he sticks to his guns and often turns out to be right. I was dismayed when he said he was going to start looking for a house the other day, but maybe he was the last bear turning bull and we owe the recent general change in sentiment to him!

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what next?

Big correction in the stock markets.

Big drop in the Euro and Pound after weeks of rallying on non-news and cover-ups (stress test mularky).

The start of meaningful MoM house drops.

The Double dip confirmed.

The promised austerity finally sinks in.

So what next?

Big correction in the stock markets.

Why? They had it and have rallied from the lows.

Big drop in the Euro and Pound after weeks of rallying on non-news and cover-ups (stress test mularky).

vs what? Don't be short of the £. it's the safest (paper) one around (politically).

The start of meaningful MoM house drops.

Not sure about meaningful but agree we've seen the top.

The Double dip confirmed.

not this year. Maybe Q4 but we don't get that until next year.

The promised austerity finally sinks in.

it's going to take longer than you think but the squeeze is going to be real and it will hurt a lot of people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+1

Please take him up on this one RB

The best topics are the FTSE, HPC and gold (the contrarian indicator). Eliminate these three and there ain't much left.

IMO the headless chicken of a market we have seen for the past several months (since early May, at least) must finally hit something and keel over. I think it hit a dose of reality this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's not forget that if people start pulling their money from property they have to find a home for it, and with negative returns from savings accounts it leaves little choice but defensives and they make up a chunk of the ftse 100.

Just a thought. . .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's not forget that if people start pulling their money from property they have to find a home for it, and with negative returns from savings accounts it leaves little choice but defensives and they make up a chunk of the ftse 100.

Just a thought. . .

DOW, Hang Seng etc. are good alternatives if the UK market is about to slip.

The FOREX is showing a contrary trend though--very bullish on our economy. It may be the last bastion to come to grips with the reality of our debt, falling exports, rising real employment and the big one: the HPC upon which the most of our economic prospects have been based.

It is as if the FOREX has been blind to incredibly weak data here:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-hits-2-1-2-month-high-vs-dollar-reuters_molt-85f30ad628a0.html?x=0

LONDON (
Reuters
) - Sterling hit a 2-1/2-month high versus the dollar on Thursday as the U.S. currency suffered after weak economic data, and analysts said more gains may lie in store for the pound due to technical factors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen 'The end is nigh' posted every time the FTSE coughs since March 09.

We've been in a bear market in stocks since 2001.

The reporting season in the US has started and so far all the companies which have reported have exceeded expectations on profits and have increased turnover, this isn't consistant with a double dip recession.

The FTSE will probably increase from here for the next month or two and run broadly flat until year end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen 'The end is nigh' posted every time the FTSE coughs since March 09.

We've been in a bear market in stocks since 2001.

The reporting season in the US has started and so far all the companies which have reported have exceeded expectations on profits and have increased turnover, this isn't consistant with a double dip recession.

The FTSE will probably increase from here for the next month or two and run broadly flat until year end.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110079/the-rally-is-meaningless;_ylt=AuJoK2dFDjtQ5FKRiBAl7Bq7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dWVqbnA3BHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawN0aGVtZWFuaW5nbGU-?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

The Rally is Meaningless

by Peter "Pete" Brimelow

Thursday, July 15, 2010
Commentary: Elliott Wave Financial Forecast says this will be a down year
More from MarketWatch.com:
•Weak Economy for Extended Period, Fed says
• Investors Shouldn't be Fooled by Another Breakout
An investment letter that made money during the Crash of 2008 says the stock rally is meaningless and that this will be a down year.
...../
In a recent interview, EWFF's founder Bob Prechter said:
"Investors should be primarily in greenback cash and Treasury bills, while holding a core position in gold-bullion coins and bags of U.S. silver coins, sometimes called 'junk silver.' They should hold no corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage debt, auto debt, credit-card debt, foreign debt — aside from Swiss money-market claims (the Swiss equivalent of T-bills) — or any other IOUs that will soon evaporate in value. They should own no stocks or investment property. They should avoid all but the safest banks on the planet. Experienced traders should be short the S&P 500 Index Market Data Express: SPX (^GSPC - News)."
Prechter added: "I love gold. It's money. Our fiat system has no money, just debt. Outlawing gold as money in the U.S. was one of the most harmful decisions the government ever made. [but] gold is not a crisis hedge....In crises, people want cash. Debtors owe dollars, and creditors are owed dollars. During the serious part of the coming debt implosion, dollar bills and surviving dollar-denominated IOUs will likely go up in value faster than gold, which means the dollar price of gold will probably fall for a time."

Bearish and a deflationist but probably correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reporting season in the US has started and so far all the companies which have reported have exceeded expectations on profits and have increased turnover, this isn't consistant with a double dip recession.

Yes it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes it is.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell Thursday after another series of disappointing reports made investors more pessimistic about the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 75 points, likely ending its seven-day winning streak, while all the major indexes were down moderately. Interest rates tumbled in the Treasury market as investors worried about the economy went in search of safe investments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped below 3 percent.

A day after the Federal Reserve issued a slightly more bleak outlook on the economy, two regional reports pointed to a slowing in manufacturing activity in the Northeast. Meanwhile, the Fed reported modest growth in industrial output nationwide. And the Labor Department said that first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but that was largely due to seasonal factors.

"We've hit a soft spot," Howard Ward, chief investment officer at GAMCO Growth Fund, said of the economic recovery. "The question is, are we starting to already improve or are we still falling down."

The disappointing manufacturing reports, which followed a weeklong stock rally, made the market "susceptible to profit taking," Ward said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The FOREX is showing a contrary trend though--very bullish on our economy. It may be the last bastion to come to grips with the reality of our debt, falling exports, rising real employment and the big one: the HPC upon which the most of our economic prospects have been based.

It's the housing elephant sitting in the room that's made me very pessimistic on GBP. Like you say, most of our prospects have been based on housing. Our currency peaked when our housing market peaked. If the housing market plunges then it is hard to see our currency becoming stronger with so many banks (and the government) exposed to this rotting corpse.

The UK desperately needed a proper (US, NI, ROI style) housing crash in 2007-2008 so we could get all the bad times behind us and actually form a real recovery. It was no real surprise that the housing market rebounded with QE and ZIRP but if the US is anything to go by then we have a brutal session in the hurt locker heading our way.

Our days of selling piles of bricks to each other for ever increasing sums must now surely be over.

Edited by MrFlibble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's the housing elephant sitting in the room that's made me very pessimistic on GBP. Like you say, most of our prospects have been based on housing. Our currency peaked when our housing market peaked. If the housing market plunges then it is hard to see our currency becoming stronger with so many banks (and the government) exposed to this rotting corpse.

The UK desperately needed a proper (US, NI, ROI style) housing crash in 2007-2008 so we could get all the bad times behind us and actually form a real recovery. It was no real surprise that the housing market rebounded with QE and ZIRP but if the US is anything to go by then we have a brutal session in the hurt locker heading our way.

Our days of selling piles of bricks to each other for every increasing sums must now surely be over.

I firmly believe Sterling is tied to the direction of house prices also.

The pound is doing well as there is no evidence (that the FOREX looks at) yet of a second leg to follow the slight correction in '08.

IMO, a HPC is certain and Sterling will go down with it. I also agree, that by delaying it 2 more years more negative forces have been allowed to build. As PWC have been saying--the market will now face a decade of bad times instead of, perhaps, 5 if they had not attempted to shore it up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what's in it for old RB,sounds like a sh1t deal,no wonder you're so rich.I think you're out of line on your July call there.

to be fair to old pedro,in this instance,I am probably ,literally(depending on your weapons) on the otehr side of th trade to you.

how about i stop starting threads if i lose :D

And who said im wealthy? im just your average Joe

My only point with RB is he constantly posts these articles when a market drops 1% its bear is back, then when it rallies 1 and a half percent the next day, the market is apparently wrong, like how can the market be wrong, it is what it is. He spends so much time looking at news that he completely misses the mechanics of the market, namely the need for retraces, thats not TA just human psychology at work, markets cant drop in a straight line but he seems to have a real problem with this fact despite the guaranteed certainty of countertrending, if a market wants to go up it will, whatever the news and likewise down.

As it happens i have a nibble on the long side, but i believe the bear rally did indeed end in April, 30 points above the upper target in the signature, as for where we are as highlighted on a previous thread if i was a betting man i would bet on a retrace to 5500 taking us through to early August (completing a 3 month flat correction to fully unwind oversold conditions) and for what its worth im pretty confident Gold will finally be ending its decade long bull market around the same period at 1300-1350

and then the market will likely be sub 4000 by Xmas and it will take out the March 09 lows by 2011 Q1 end before another substantial (countertrend correction unwinding oversold conditions)

and sterling again, apparently it has to be falling and is wrong, just ignore the fact that its fallen from 1.70 to 1.40 the last 6 months, again it is simply unwinding oversold conditions with a bog standard countertrend rally

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.