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Fairies Wear Boots

So When Is The Second Leg Down Coming For The South East?

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No interest rate rise in sight.  Jobless total went down recently. Government cuts aren't happening yet.  The London market can't just run out of steam by itself can it?  

Bored now.   :wacko:

The jobs market in the South East is pretty hot as well. I suspect we'll see the South East and London stay flat, and it will be the other regions (especially those reliant on the public sector) that get hit.  This is looking like the 1980s again, except Cameron has no handbag.

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No interest rate rise in sight. Jobless total went down recently. Government cuts aren't happening yet. The London market can't just run out of steam by itself can it?

Bored now. :wacko:

I think it's starting here in Birmingham. There's been a real flurry of new properties and price drops on Rightmove over the last couple of weeks in my area. The number of pretty yellow Property Bee boxes is growing daily, just like it did back in 2008. :D

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up north, is where the action is happening http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10606147

Uniform-maker Alexandra Plc in administration

A company in South Gloucestershire which makes uniforms for workplaces has gone into administration.

Alexandra Plc, based in Thornbury, employs 484 people in areas including Thornbury, Aztec West, Swindon, Langley, Edinburgh and Uddingston.

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Housing markets take on average 6 years to hit the bottom.

Given the delaying measures taken by government and the BoE I would predict this bear market to finish in about 2014-2015.

Hold on for the ride!

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The jobs market in the South East is pretty hot as well. I suspect we'll see the South East and London stay flat, and it will be the other regions (especially those reliant on the public sector) that get hit.  This is looking like the 1980s again, except Cameron has no handbag.

London is pretty reliant on the public sector, still in a bubble at the moment but I still reckon it'll pop eventually.

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up north, is where the action is happening http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10606147

Uniform-maker Alexandra Plc in administration

A company in South Gloucestershire which makes uniforms for workplaces has gone into administration.

Alexandra Plc, based in Thornbury, employs 484 people in areas including Thornbury, Aztec West, Swindon, Langley, Edinburgh and Uddingston.

Making stuff in the UK!

What the hell were they thinking.

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Housing markets take on average 6 years to hit the bottom.

Given the delaying measures taken by government and the BoE I would predict this bear market to finish in about 2014-2015.

Hold on for the ride!

What with interest rates being low and inflation being high, if you have a good sized deposit, it'd probably be better to buy a house than pay rent and wait!

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What with interest rates being low and inflation being high, if you have a good sized deposit, it'd probably be better to buy a house than pay rent and wait!

Not when you move house almost every year like I do! (the Mrs' job keeps changing location - bloody NHS!)

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What with interest rates being low and inflation being high, if you have a good sized deposit, it'd probably be better to buy a house than pay rent and wait!

So what are you waiting for? Common sense? It's not British, you know. Must uphold the arrogant presumption of imperialism past, you know.

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit, ya no!

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As per the Mumsnet thread on being secretly poor - banks really are being very slow about starting repossession proceedings (these people 6 months behind and no heavy pressure from building society) which is surely preventing a lot of stuff coming to market. Can't see much of a second leg while people are being allowed to not pay their mortgages.

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I can't speak for London but Essex certainly isn't holding up too well. Very quite here at the moment. Stock up around 40% since march. New buyer enquiries plummeting according to rics regional chart for the south east. We're certainly not immune here.

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its happening as we speak

the fear factor is already here

just wait & see when you have the proof.

Aint going to take 6 yrs this time, more like 6 months.

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The UK population are experiencing a shift in perceptions. 3 months ago, they are told its all green shoots and recovery,

Now its grim news daily, at first its drip, drip, now its hammer blow, hammer blow,... £200,000 debt per household ( Yahoo ) 60,000 less police in a couple of years ( Beeb ) a 40% reduction in in Home office budget being planned ( Beeb )...if this is like the eighties, all this gradually feeds through into popular culture, the soaps and such having story lines reflecting a poorer Britain

( remember Yosser Hughes ? ) :) If this keeps up ( and why wouldnt it ) peoples mind set gets adjusted, the '' Nice decade'' will be a fading memory and there wont be too many corners of Britain where everyone thinks its not their problem. Remember the S.E. is full of poor people also, it just happens to be very crowded. It also happens to be prone to riots. There's nothing like the sight of burning property to make people think neighbourhood x,y, or z maybe isn't as up and coming as that Estate Agent said.

Regular readers of this site know there are strong anecdotals to suggest there is a No Repo's policy which is propping up the market.

However, I think the decade of the investment buyer is dead. This on its could drop the market just as spectactularly as repo's did in the 90's. We are sat in a gap wherein the amateur landlord mindsets turn....( is there a million of them or did I just dream that ?)

If you dont think the amateur investment buyer is dead and a footnote to history let me know your reasons please, I cant see many 40 something school teachers thinking they need to go out and buy property as a pension investment at the moment can you ?

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its happening as we speak

the fear factor is already here

just wait & see when you have the proof.

Aint going to take 6 yrs this time, more like 6 months.

Soounds like it. Every day = Cuts, Job losses, Cuts, lack of funding, Reducing, increased Tax,

But beware of printy printy which can make things SEEM better, but in real terms could be a hell of a crash

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Regular readers of this site know there are strong anecdotals to suggest there is a No Repo's policy which is propping up the market.

However, I think the decade of the investment buyer is dead. This on its could drop the market just as spectactularly as repo's did in the 90's. We are sat in a gap wherein the amateur landlord mindsets turn....( is there a million of them or did I just dream that ?)

If you dont think the amateur investment buyer is dead and a footnote to history let me know your reasons please, I cant see many 40 something school teachers thinking they need to go out and buy property as a pension investment at the moment can you ?

Where I am the rental market is very strong. There are more potential tenants than properties available for rent. Perhaps the amateur landlord buyer is not buying, but the returns from rentals are far greater than the returns from bank deposits. The property market might be just as risky as the stock and bond markets buts its much less volatile. That stability in itself gives a sense of security, plus you have something tangible to see, not just a piece of paper evidencing ownership.

The experienced/professional landlords are not leaving the market. Some must be increasing their portfolios, maybe? Cashflow is currently very strong from property rental. Particularly if the LL has a base rate tracker.

As I've said before when the factors that will cause property prices to drop kick in everyone will be affected. House prices might fall but will you have a job and be able to afford to buy?

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The jobs market in the South East is pretty hot as well. I suspect we'll see the South East and London stay flat, and it will be the other regions (especially those reliant on the public sector) that get hit.  This is looking like the 1980s again, except Cameron has no handbag.

didnt she auction offf her handbags a few months back. ill bet hes got a blonde wig too. and late on saturday nights a shrill falsetto can be heard through the wall at number 11

"the lady's NOT for turning"

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No interest rate rise in sight. Jobless total went down recently. Government cuts aren't happening yet. The London market can't just run out of steam by itself can it?

Bored now. :wacko:

As mentioned elsewhere there will be no 80's style crash while

- interest rates remain very low and for for many borrowers are almost zero

- mortgages in default are paid by the taxpayer

- lenders are reluctant to repossess and recognize losses on their balance sheets

None of these conditions were present last time around

How long this situation can persist is anybody's guess but I am not betting against it any more.

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Can't comment for the SE, but Cotton's auction last week in Birmingham was a blood bath. Bigwood's have another next week. People at auctions have cash and are not stupid so tends to be a very good guide of where we are going.

Here is the pdf of the results.

http://www.cottons.co.uk/docs/RESULTS%208%20July%202010.pdf

Edit to add - 38% of lots Sold

Edited by neil324

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The jobs market in the South East is pretty hot as well. I suspect we'll see the South East and London stay flat, and it will be the other regions (especially those reliant on the public sector) that get hit.  This is looking like the 1980s again, except Cameron has no handbag.

I'd agree that london and the south east will miss the worst of any correction... the worst of it will be felt it areas where public service employment is highest, where adverse credit has the highest penetration, where the benefit count ( espeically housing benefit ) is highest...... in addition though those areas( actually probably specific buildings) that were badly planned and built ( eg oversupply of two bedroomed flats) all over the UK will suffer, as will propaerties you can no longer get a mainstream mortagge for... flats over shops ( particularly pubs and restaurants and hairdressers), concrete construction, old built high rise, steel framed houses etc .

The national stats are fairly pointless anyway but utterly meanigless for anyone actually bying a house.. for that its what goes on in the street you want to buy in which counts.

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Housing markets take on average 6 years to hit the bottom.

Given the delaying measures taken by government and the BoE I would predict this bear market to finish in about 2014-2015.

Hold on for the ride!

I have to say when I STRed in 2003, I didn't anticipate renting for 12 years. Ahh well, what can you do?

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Can't comment for the SE, but Cotton's auction last week in Birmingham was a blood bath. Bigwood's have another next week. People at auctions have cash and are not stupid so tends to be a very good guide of where we are going.

Here is the pdf of the results.

http://www.cottons.c...July%202010.pdf

Edit to add - 38% of lots Sold

What happened to very helpful chap who used to post a link to live auctions? Has he departed this site?

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I'd agree that london and the south east will miss the worst of any correction... the worst of it will be felt it areas where public service employment is highest, where adverse credit has the highest penetration, where the benefit count ( espeically housing benefit ) is highest...... in addition though those areas( actually probably specific buildings) that were badly planned and built ( eg oversupply of two bedroomed flats) all over the UK will suffer, as will propaerties you can no longer get a mainstream mortagge for... flats over shops ( particularly pubs and restaurants and hairdressers), concrete construction, old built high rise, steel framed houses etc .

The national stats are fairly pointless anyway but utterly meanigless for anyone actually bying a house.. for that its what goes on in the street you want to buy in which counts.

Just watching Homes Under the Hammer for a minute - 2 bed flats in Margate are 50k. 2 bed flats where I live are 160k - 220k. I just keep wondering how much longer bog standard 4 bed estate houses where I live can sell at £475k. Those sales must (eventually) be underpinned by people buying cheaper properties and moving up the ladder (as opposed to now when most deals seem to still be cash buyers.) When that happens, surely, finally, e - f u c k i n g - ventually - prices must fall. Mustn't they?

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I hope that it comes along soon.

I'm pretty fed up with EAs showing me properties at 10% above peak and telling me "they are selling at these prices", when the LR records shows that they are not.

tim

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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