eric pebble Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) House price slump may last a decade, experts warn Fears that any recovery in house prices will be short-lived were growing last night - following a series of devastating reports about the future of the property market. In an unprecedented warning, four leading experts raised concerns that the housing market could be teetering on a knife-edge for the next decade. They included accountants Pricewaterhouse Coopers, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, a leading economic consultancy and the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1294196/House-price-slump-decade.html#ixzz0tWTfFka6 Why "fears"?!? ------------- ....this would mean the average house price, which was £162,000 at the end of last year, would drop to just £125,000 by the end of 2012. LUVVERLY JUBBLY!!!!!!!! Edited July 13, 2010 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) His analysis is based on 'real' house prices, that is the value of your home if the impact of inflation is ignored. That's wrong surely? 'Real' house prices take inflation into account. edit:spellign Edited July 13, 2010 by bomberbrown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) House price slump may last a decade, experts warn Fears that any recovery in house prices will be short-lived were growing last night - following a series of devastating reports about the future of the property market. In an unprecedented warning, four leading experts raised concerns that the housing market could be teetering on a knife-edge for the next decade. They included accountants Pricewaterhouse Coopers, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, a leading economic consultancy and the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1294196/House-price-slump-decade.html#ixzz0tWTfFka6 Why "fears"?!? ------------- ....this would mean the average house price, which was £162,000 at the end of last year, would drop to just £125,000 by the end of 2012. LUVVERLY JUBBLY!!!!!!!! Splendid, I'll take £125k thanks. Looks like it's going to be good RICS survey today Edited July 13, 2010 by Pent Up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Nice article--but did you catch the link in the story? Head of a primary schools gets 256k salary? Apparently hundreds of head teachers are getting in excess of 150k. IMO it is likely that a web of corruption is behind these extortionate levels of pay. Nepotism, kick backs, bribery..... We live in the most corrupt of times where even our schools are tainted by greed and theft of public funds. How on earth did we get here? Was it part and parcel of the Nulabour ethos and lie touch Brown's blind eye to corruption so long as it underpinned HPI? (How many BTLs could a head teacher buy on 256k a year?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitofdoom Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) A typically sloppy piece of tabloid journalism.Whilst I don't disagree with the general thrust ,what a previous poster picked up on about "real prices" is absolutely correct. The implication is that a house that was for example £200k in 2007 and is £160k now will by 2020 return to £200k plus all the RPI indexing from 2007 to 2020.What I think they meant to say was that it would not return to £200k until 2020,which of course would imply a fall in real terms since 2007 0f perhaps 30-40% I have consistently gone with 35% falls in REAL values from the peak.I thought a year ago that might have been a bit strong but this current situation just reconfirms that.I think that by this time next year we are going to be 25% off thepeak with four years inflation thrown in for good measure. Edited July 13, 2010 by profitofdoom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KingCharles1st Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Bring it on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schmunk Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Nice article--but did you catch the link in the story? Head of a primary schools gets 256k salary? Apparently hundreds of head teachers are getting in excess of 150k. IMO it is likely that a web of corruption is behind these extortionate levels of pay. Nepotism, kick backs, bribery..... We live in the most corrupt of times where even our schools are tainted by greed and theft of public funds. How on earth did we get here? Was it part and parcel of the Nulabour ethos and lie touch Brown's blind eye to corruption so long as it underpinned HPI? (How many BTLs could a head teacher buy on 256k a year?). Except that if one actually reads the article one soon realises that the £276k figure is total ballcocks sensationalist journalism. For a start, it includes £45k of employer pension contributions - do you include these when you calculate your income...? A further £60k related to work performed in the previous year! The remaining £170k is still very high for a headmaster, and perhaps requires further analysis, but is certainly not the £276k quoted... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 House price slump may last a decade, experts warn Fears that any recovery in house prices will be short-lived were growing last night - following a series of devastating reports about the future of the property market. In an unprecedented warning, four leading experts raised concerns that the housing market could be teetering on a knife-edge for the next decade. They included accountants Pricewaterhouse Coopers, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, a leading economic consultancy and the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1294196/House-price-slump-decade.html#ixzz0tWTfFka6 Why "fears"?!? ------------- ....this would mean the average house price, which was £162,000 at the end of last year, would drop to just £125,000 by the end of 2012. LUVVERLY JUBBLY!!!!!!!! Just off to start housepriceboom.co.uk to be ahead of the curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Except that if one actually reads the article one soon realises that the £276k figure is total ballcocks sensationalist journalism. For a start, it includes £45k of employer pension contributions - do you include these when you calculate your income...? A further £60k related to work performed in the previous year! The remaining £170k is still very high for a headmaster, and perhaps requires further analysis, but is certainly not the £276k quoted... 45k pension contribution !!! That's about double the median wage. Seeing that is tax-free and gold-plated it makes his package worth more, not less. You public-sector apologists don't have a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
campervanman Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Except that if one actually reads the article one soon realises that the £276k figure is total ballcocks sensationalist journalism. For a start, it includes £45k of employer pension contributions - do you include these when you calculate your income...? A further £60k related to work performed in the previous year! The remaining £170k is still very high for a headmaster, and perhaps requires further analysis, but is certainly not the £276k quoted... 170k? thats about a quarter of what the glorious private sector gave Fred Goodwin every year for the rest of his life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) 170k? thats about a quarter of what the glorious private sector gave Fred Goodwin every year for the rest of his life. Err no the private sector would have given him fck all as the company is insolvent, the public sector gave him 170k+ when they bailed out the bank like muppets Edited July 13, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Awesome! The world has gone mad with the Daily Wail printing bearish stories about housing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
campervanman Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Err no the private sector would have given him fck all as the company is insolvent, the public sector gave him 170k+ when they bailed out the bank like muppets Wrong. His pension arrangements were part of his contract with a private ie not public company. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Awesome! The world has gone mad with the Daily Wail printing bearish stories about housing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 The Daily Mail have very loyal readers, and they're going to touch some nerves. They risk losing readers to the Daily Express! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) Wrong. His pension arrangements were part of his contract with a private ie not public company. Wrong, when the company fails you lose the pension and enter the govt pension protection scheme, had the govt not bailed them out he would not have got that pension because err the money wasn't there Edited July 13, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Why "fears"?!? ------------- Because they are hoping for a bailout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aa3 Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 A typically sloppy piece of tabloid journalism.Whilst I don't disagree with the general thrust ,what a previous poster picked up on about "real prices" is absolutely correct. The implication is that a house that was for example £200k in 2007 and is £160k now will by 2020 return to £200k plus all the RPI indexing from 2007 to 2020.What I think they meant to say was that it would not return to £200k until 2020,which of course would imply a fall in real terms since 2007 0f perhaps 30-40% I have consistently gone with 35% falls in REAL values from the peak.I thought a year ago that might have been a bit strong but this current situation just reconfirms that.I think that by this time next year we are going to be 25% off thepeak with four years inflation thrown in for good measure. Your predictions sound quite reasonable and plausible. When you add in significantly lower interest rates these real falls are making a big difference in affordability. In the most desirable areas of the country housing will still be out of reach for the average person.. but in your average area it seems housing would become semi-reasonable for an average couple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analysis Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 (edited) It's in the headline news today. Putting it down to more sellers than buyers + coalition austerity measures. No mention of a 'surprise' fall in house prices either. Comes from the latest RICS survey. Also in the Radio 4 Today programme headline news is that self cert and fast track mortgages will be banned. And bank profits + bonuses are being considered for an extra tax. Edited July 13, 2010 by Analysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buytoilet Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 The Daily Mail have very loyal readers, and they're going to touch some nerves. They risk losing readers to the Daily Express! My outlaws have moved to the Express, they gave up on the sloppy journalism of the Mail. I shityou not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Your predictions sound quite reasonable and plausible. When you add in significantly lower interest rates these real falls are making a big difference in affordability. In the most desirable areas of the country housing will still be out of reach for the average person.. but in your average area it seems housing would become semi-reasonable for an average couple. shame, but with serious inflation, the last thing the average person will be worried about will be buying a house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 shame, but with serious inflation, the last thing the average person will be worried about will be buying a house. And surely this inflation will come hand in hand with surging interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ologhai Jones Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 The Daily Mail have very loyal readers, and they're going to touch some nerves. They risk losing readers to the Daily Express! I was just wondering what the front page of the Express was looking like today... Would they avoid this whole property/mortgage bear-food altogether today, or find some related statistic with a bullish spin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bam Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 A bear story from the mail, who would have thought. Still good news overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flapjack Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Eric! Eric! Eric! Like the quote about - 'liar loans' - even the MSM are beginning to get it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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