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Snugglybear

Why They'll Keep The Financial Sector Afloat

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Interesting stuff from the BBC (quiet at the back).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10557724.stm

Under the heading 'What might the UK economy be like in future?' there's a look at 'rebalancing the economy'.

Note this bit

"We asked the forecasting group Cambridge Econometrics to look at the future shape of the economy.

Its modelling incorporates the important measures set out in the June Budget, for example the spending cuts and VAT increase.

The Cambridge forecasts are intriguing (also shown in Chart 1)." (I can't insert the chart but it's at the link above)

"They suggest that manufacturing's share of economic output will continue to decline.

Financial and business services will carry on expanding to the highest share in modern times.

The government share (education, health and public administration) falls back to roughly where it was in 2000 before the big spending increases under Labour.

So in 2020, under these projections, the UK will be even more of a service based economy. "

In other words, the economy isn't going to be rebalanced at all and they have to keep the financial and businesses services sector propped up or we're (even more) stuffed.

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Interesting stuff from the BBC (quiet at the back).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10557724.stm

Under the heading 'What might the UK economy be like in future?' there's a look at 'rebalancing the economy'.

Note this bit

"We asked the forecasting group Cambridge Econometrics to look at the future shape of the economy.

Its modelling incorporates the important measures set out in the June Budget, for example the spending cuts and VAT increase.

The Cambridge forecasts are intriguing (also shown in Chart 1)." (I can't insert the chart but it's at the link above)

"They suggest that manufacturing's share of economic output will continue to decline.

Financial and business services will carry on expanding to the highest share in modern times.

The government share (education, health and public administration) falls back to roughly where it was in 2000 before the big spending increases under Labour.

So in 2020, under these projections, the UK will be even more of a service based economy. "

In other words, the economy isn't going to be rebalanced at all and they have to keep the financial and businesses services sector propped up or we're (even more) stuffed.

Rent boys will be able to join golf clubs.

p-o-p

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So in 2020, under these projections, the UK will be even more of a service based economy. "

The whole article is very encouraging purely because, unless I missed it, that 'recovery' word is missing!!

However, we do have the contender for 'Gem of the decade':-

Returning to a golden age is never easy and it's often not desirable.

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...fits with Keen's Minsky model. Following a credit crisis, wages fall and the wage share of GDP devoted to productivity falls rapidly while the wage share of GDP devoted to banking and financial services rises sharply.

I haven't made up my mind what ths means for real wages. I guess if you can get a job, it'll be in banking. But whether it'll carry a huge wage and bonus or just a bog-standard one and a 10% bonus - I'm leaning towards the latter. Bubbles in sectors run for 10-20 years and this one is a little long in the tooth. Once everyone is into it, wages will be peanuts.

Edited by AvidFan

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Interesting stuff from the BBC (quiet at the back).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10557724.stm

Under the heading 'What might the UK economy be like in future?' there's a look at 'rebalancing the economy'.

Note this bit

"We asked the forecasting group Cambridge Econometrics to look at the future shape of the economy.

Its modelling incorporates the important measures set out in the June Budget, for example the spending cuts and VAT increase.

The Cambridge forecasts are intriguing (also shown in Chart 1)." (I can't insert the chart but it's at the link above)

"They suggest that manufacturing's share of economic output will continue to decline.

Financial and business services will carry on expanding to the highest share in modern times.

The government share (education, health and public administration) falls back to roughly where it was in 2000 before the big spending increases under Labour.

So in 2020, under these projections, the UK will be even more of a service based economy. "

In other words, the economy isn't going to be rebalanced at all and they have to keep the financial and businesses services sector propped up or we're (even more) stuffed.

Quite a blunt article really.

The basic conclusion I get from it is: "we are screwed, there will be no new jobs, no one knows what will happen"

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Guest spp

Those graphs are quite frightening.

We can just print our own currency though...Lucky us! :unsure:

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It suggested that a focus on high technology sectors was the most realistic option.

This would not necessarily create large numbers of jobs but would stimulate growth in internationally competitive businesses.

This is what always puzzled me about the 'knowledge' economy- even assuming that the quasi racist assumption that we can 'do' hi tech better in perpetuity than Indians and Chinese people is correct- which looks absurd to me- these type of industries do not create large numbers of jobs- and many of them are in the business of designing out jobs via technology- sort of ironic really;

In the future we'll all be employed in the creation of labour saving technologies-- what could possibly go wrong? :P

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Guest Noodle

Is there such a thing as a golden shower curtain? :blink:

I can get golden shower curtain rings . . . very popular out here with the wealthy and a perfect example of why money cannot buy taste.

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The BBC's take on industry is interesting i.e. photos of old steelworks and building old fashioned cars.

No photos of modern industry oh no as that might even seem an attractive option compared to being on slave wages just to support the banking and finance sector - a banking and finance sector that also sucks out £trillions of taxpayers bail-out money from those on the slave wages.

Edited by billybong

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We can just print our own currency though...Lucky us! :unsure:

Just like Zimbabwe! :lol:

---

Edited by wise_eagle

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So it's sex tourism and porn films then for the masses?

Doesn't have to be made in the UK. People I know into "porn" films make them in Eastern Europe.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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