Falklands Oil Disappointment

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

The ramping can't counter reality...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/jul/12/2

[Guest Steve Cook]

The ramping can't counter reality...

http://www.guardian....e/2010/jul/12/2

The oil age is over. The world just hasn't got used to the idea yet.

Soon enough, it is going to have to.

At which point all hell breaks loose.

[drrayjo]

That's the Southern FOGL fields with no oil hit as yet. The Northern has had a true hit, a hit with poor rock quality and a gas hit with several more wells yet to be drilled and up-to-date formation knowledge.

Some explorers other than FOGL (notably DES) still penny stocks and worth a punt IMO. Not every dart is going to hit treble or bull but there's a decent match on here.

Or everyone can decide there is not and cannot be any commercial oil produced from the Falklands, ever. It's admirably definitive but not much fun is it?

Let the informed gamblers have their punt at a gilded retirement and if you don't like the look of the stocks by all means, don't buy!

[Guest Steve Cook]

That's the Southern FOGL fields with no oil hit as yet. The Northern has had a true hit, a hit with poor rock quality and a gas hit with several more wells yet to be drilled and up-to-date formation knowledge.

Some explorers other than FOGL (notably DES) still penny stocks and worth a punt IMO. Not every dart is going to hit treble or bull but there's a decent match on here.

Or everyone can decide there is not and cannot be any commercial oil produced from the Falklands, ever. It's admirably definitive but not much fun is it?

Let the informed gamblers have their punt at a gilded retirement and if you don't like the look of the stocks by all means, don't buy!

There may or may not be commercially extractable hydrocarbons at the Falklands. If there are, some folks are going to make a lot of money.

However....

The most outlandishly optimistic guestimates are that there may be as much as 60 billion barrels of oil there. More probably, there will be half that. There could be a lot less still.

The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day.

60 billion divided by 85 million = 1.9 year's worth of global supply. However, as I have said, you can probably half that number.

P*ssing in the wind........

Edited July 12, 2010 by Steve Cook

[Wario]

Or everyone can decide there is not and cannot be any commercial oil produced from the Falklands, ever. It's admirably definitive but not much fun is it?

Crumbs! That's torn it!

OilCo announces "nothing to see here, move along" ...

... conspiracy theorists twelve o'clock high - closing fast ...

[abharrisson]

There may or may not be commercially extractable hydrocarbons at the Falklands. If there are, some folks are going to make a lot of money.

However....

The most outlandishly optimistic guestimates are that there may be as much as 60 billion barrels of oil there. More probably, there will be half that. There could be a lot less still.

The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day.

60 billion divided by 85 million = 1.9 year's worth of global supply. However, as I have said, you can probably half that number.

P*ssing in the wind........

I'd agree from its importance globally however I am cheering for it as it may well be very very helpful to us economically over time... I for one wouldn't say no to the tax revenues coming from 60 billion barrels or even the lower figure of 30 billion barrels.... price of oil averages at say $80 profit on a barrel say 20% ... corp tax say 20%... at a very rough level that might mean something like $96Bn in tax revenue...or something like £60bn..... thats quite an interessting revenue stream even over a long period... might pay for trident as an example over its lifetime.

[TylerDurden]

I've been away for 5 weeks surfing and came back last week. Ive had a quick look through the news and theres nothing on the BP oil spill. What happened with it. I was interested to see how they plugged the leak. Any idea of the amount lost or the time scale of the clean up.

I was interested as i spent a lot of time on the coast in Galicia Northern spain. Right where the Prestige spill happened in 02. The oil seems to have gone now but apparently it still washed up occasionaly up to 5 years later.

Edit to say i just hit google up. Its still leaking. Utterly disgusting.

Edited July 12, 2010 by TylerDurden

[tomandlu]

The oil age is over. The world just hasn't got used to the idea yet.

Soon enough, it is going to have to.

At which point all hell breaks loose.

I've often wondered about this - if the oil runs out, or is just about to, how dumb do you have to be to go to war (which is hardly a good way to save oil)?

[Blue Peter]

I've been away for 5 weeks surfing and came back last week. Ive had a quick look through the news and theres nothing on the BP oil spill. What happened with it. I was interested to see how they plugged the leak. Any idea of the amount lost or the time scale of the clean up.

I was interested as i spent a lot of time on the coast in Galicia Northern spain. Right where the Prestige spill happened in 02. The oil seems to have gone now but apparently it still washed up occasionaly up to 5 years later.

Edit to say i just hit google up. Its still leaking. Utterly disgusting.

Have a look at www.theoildrum.com which has multiple posts on what is going on,

Peter.

Edited July 12, 2010 by Blue Peter

[Riedquat]

I've often wondered about this - if the oil runs out, or is just about to, how dumb do you have to be to go to war (which is hardly a good way to save oil)?

We've got nuclear powered subs! Rest of the military might not be able to do much though (not making the new carriers nuclear was utterly crazy).

[Conrad]

We've got nuclear powered subs! Rest of the military might not be able to do much though (not making the new carriers nuclear was utterly crazy).

Its actually not that crazy, Carriers require huge amounts of other support vessel either for replenishment or defence, these other vessels are not run by nuclear either so the advantage is not that great.

[happy_renting]

I've often wondered about this - if the oil runs out, or is just about to, how dumb do you have to be to go to war (which is hardly a good way to save oil)?

One of the ways that 'oil runs out' is that it becomes uneconomical to extract it. Most 'spent' oil wells have huge amounts of oil left inderground.

If oil becomes scarce, the price of oil goes up, and the 'uneconomical' fields suddenly become affordable. High oil prices reduce consumption. Oil usage won't come to a dead halt, it will fizzle out.

I expect one failed prospective well adds to the picture of the geology; it's not a disaster, it is exploratory, after all.

[Guest Steve Cook]

One of the ways that 'oil runs out' is that it becomes uneconomical to extract it. Most 'spent' oil wells have huge amounts of oil left inderground.

If oil becomes scarce, the price of oil goes up, and the 'uneconomical' fields suddenly become affordable. High oil prices reduce consumption. Oil usage won't come to a dead halt, it will fizzle out.

I expect one failed prospective well adds to the picture of the geology; it's not a disaster, it is exploratory, after all.

The trouble is, our global economy, being based on perpetual growth, cannot cope with a a fizzling out any more than it can cope with a dead stop.

FRB means that the future has already been spent today.

If the future is unable to pay then it all ends in tears.

And it's worse than that. If the world is at the peak of production (as it now appears to be), then production is set to fall by about 2-3% per year. This means in 25 years we will have access to the amount of oil we were consuming in 1985. However, in 1985, the world population was far smaller than it is now. In 25 years time it will be far bigger than it is now.

The gap between demand and supply will just keep widening. And it won't stop

Hell, if you want to try an imagine how bad it's going to get, just dwell on what has happend to our world economy as a consequence of the tightening of supply in late 07. Multiply the current crisis by 10 and you begin to get an idea of what's coming down the pipe.

Edited July 12, 2010 by Steve Cook

[Meat Puppet]

I've often wondered about this - if the oil runs out, or is just about to, how dumb do you have to be to go to war (which is hardly a good way to save oil)?

Might be a good idea to blow the oil securing other resources like uranium and phosphates.

In any case there will be plenty of oil even after it peaks its just that the military will have the "money" to buy it and you won't.

[Guest Steve Cook]

Might be a good idea to blow the oil securing other resources like uranium and phosphates.

In any case there will be plenty of oil even after it peaks its just that the military will have the "money" to buy it and you won't.

Yup....

".....You, me, and six other people are locked in a room, with only enough food for four of us. At least four of us will die from starvation. Another one or two will likely die as we all fight each other for what little food we have.

That's what will happen if we're just fighting with our fists.

Give each of us weapons and you can imagine what that room is going to look like by the time we're finished with each other....."

The oil age is over

Edited July 12, 2010 by Steve Cook

[blankster]

There's a big question mark over very deep sea oil drilling after the BP disaster. I think this will have implications for the Falklands exploration too.

There will come a stage when we will have to run electric cars on electricity generated largely from renewable resources. This will happen even if there isn't a breakthrough in battery technology allowing longer ranges. It will happen because electric will be the only dish on the menu - when oil is too scarce and expensive and will be needed needed to fuel heavy commercial vehicles, which aren't suitable for battery propulsion because of the weight of batteries they'd need to carry.

By the way - I have had shares in Falklands Oil and Gas but don't have any at the moment.

[MinceBalls]

Might be a good idea to blow the oil securing other resources like uranium and phosphates.

Or stop burning the stuff and only use it for useful things such as making just about everything that modern day life depends on (plastic).

[GBdamo]

One of the ways that 'oil runs out' is that it becomes uneconomical to extract it. Most 'spent' oil wells have huge amounts of oil left inderground.

If oil becomes scarce, the price of oil goes up, and the 'uneconomical' fields suddenly become affordable. High oil prices reduce consumption. Oil usage won't come to a dead halt, it will fizzle out.

I expect one failed prospective well adds to the picture of the geology; it's not a disaster, it is exploratory, after all.

Absolutely correct

There may or may not be commercially extractable hydrocarbons at the Falklands. If there are, some folks are going to make a lot of money.

However....

The most outlandishly optimistic guestimates are that there may be as much as 60 billion barrels of oil there. More probably, there will be half that. There could be a lot less still.

The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day.

60 billion divided by 85 million = 1.9 year's worth of global supply. However, as I have said, you can probably half that number.

P*ssing in the wind........

Typical one trick pony posting from Dr doom himself

[Guest Steve Cook]

Absolutely correct

Typical one trick pony posting from Dr doom himself

Care to dispute any of those numbers....

Edited July 12, 2010 by Steve Cook

[GBdamo]

Care to dispute any of those numbers....

No, not at all I'm sure they're perfectly accurate.

[Guest Steve Cook]

The trouble is, our global economy, being based on perpetual growth, cannot cope with a a fizzling out any more than it can cope with a dead stop.

FRB means that the future has already been spent today.

If the future is unable to pay then it all ends in tears.

And it's worse than that. If the world is at the peak of production (as it now appears to be), then production is set to fall by about 2-3% per year. This means in 25 years we will have access to the amount of oil we were consuming in 1985. However, in 1985, the world population was far smaller than it is now. In 25 years time it will be far bigger than it is now.

The gap between demand and supply will just keep widening. And it won't stop

Hell, if you want to try an imagine how bad it's going to get, just dwell on what has happend to our world economy as a consequence of the tightening of supply in late 07. Multiply the current crisis by 10 and you begin to get an idea of what's coming down the pipe.

Would you contest any of the above Mr Damo?

By the way, love the avatar...

Edited July 12, 2010 by Steve Cook

[Optimistic Pessimist]

I've been aware of Peak Oil for several years, but I'm not too sure whether the timescale is right.

I base this on one assumption; it just seems to be business as usual.

By this I mean the decisions that industry makes - 3rd runway at Heathrow, Boeing/Airbus predicting xxx many planes to be built in the next xxx years. Pension companies with their forecasts, 50 year governent bonds etc etc etc the list goes on.

The impact of Peak Oil will be massive, yet those that ought to be informed plan as if nothing will change.

So is peak oil just a conspiracy theory?

[GBdamo]

Would you contest any of the above Mr Damo?

By the way, love the avatar...

Only that it makes the presumptin that all will continue as it has previously.

Edit:- Actually after reading it again, I would argue that there was not 'tightening of supply' in 2007 only speculation forcing the price up. It is as a result of these price rises and the knock on effects to the world economy that industry and government are taking the subject of energy security more seriously.

I took that picture at Glasto last year, a lovlier creature I have yet to see

Edited July 12, 2010 by GBdamo

[Meat Puppet]

I've been aware of Peak Oil for several years, but I'm not too sure whether the timescale is right.

I base this on one assumption; it just seems to be business as usual.

By this I mean the decisions that industry makes - 3rd runway at Heathrow, Boeing/Airbus predicting xxx many planes to be built in the next xxx years. Pension companies with their forecasts, 50 year governent bonds etc etc etc the list goes on.

The impact of Peak Oil will be massive, yet those that ought to be informed plan as if nothing will change.

So is peak oil just a conspiracy theory?

By way of an off-topic analogy try to get hold of Cisco Systems' own forecasts for their growth in say 1999.

[corevalue]

By way of an off-topic analogy try to get hold of Cisco Systems' own forecasts for their growth in say 1999.

Exactly right. I witnessed some of this madness when I worked at Nortel. We were told by our customers, that we needed to produce 100x our anticipated output. They had predicated this massive growth by extrapolating past growth. The top management bought into it completely, or so we thought. It seems now that the CEO (John Roth) is under suspicion of selling large amounts of stock jsut about that time. We now also know that the whole bubble was a fraud (see "hollow swap").

The builders of runways and such don't care that they may never be used. Witness the Humber Bridge, the Millenium Dome, or the whole of Dubai.