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Tired of Waiting

I M F Raises Global G D P Growth Forecast From 4.2% To 4.6%

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(BBC News)

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for global growth this year, from 4.2% to 4.6%."

This debt crisis is not affecting all countries equally. Countries with big debts are in trouble, obviously (we are fecked), but many (most?) countries are doing fine. This is not really a global crisis.

But this is good news for Britain, as it will facilitate our way out of this mess. We have no option but to pay reduce our debts. The only way for that to happen is with positive foreign balance of payments (goods and services). The fact that most of the planet is doing fine, and growing, will help this.

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LINKS:

IMF Press Release: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/02/

Full IMF Report: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm

BBC news about it, quoted above: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10549770.stm

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Reply pasted from the pinned Charts thread.

Are these the same IMF economists that never saw any of this coming? Past data is okay (depending on the quality), but forecasts from TPTB are worse than useless, they are dangerous because the people making them need to tell nice lies to keep their government paymasters happy.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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The global economy is starting to rollll again. In 2004-2008 the world economy was powering forward at over 4% a year. Then the blowup in 2009 saw a 0.9% contraction in the global economy. The first negative year in the post war era I believe.

But now the global economy is back on track. China, India, the new middle east, South America, Vietnam and co are going strong. Actually they kept going strong in 2009 too, barely took a bump.

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The global economy is starting to rollll again. In 2004-2008 the world economy was powering forward at over 4% a year. Then the blowup in 2009 saw a 0.9% contraction in the global economy. The first negative year in the post war era I believe.

But now the global economy is back on track. China, India, the new middle east, South America, Vietnam and co are going strong. Actually they kept going strong in 2009 too, barely took a bump.

Exactly. They were not indebted like us.

And some developed countries were not indebted either, like Canada and Australia, and are doing fine now too.

This crisis was not really "global", like Labour keep saying. It was mainly caused by the UK and USA, mainly by Greenspan and Brown loose monetary policies.

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Exactly. They were not indebted like us.

And some developed countries were not indebted either, like Canada and Australia, and are doing fine now too.

This crisis was not really "global", like Labour keep saying. It was mainly caused by the UK and USA, mainly by Greenspan and Brown loose monetary policies.

Remember back in early 2008, de-coupling? That only the US was going down.. but then when Europe got hit no one ever talked about de-coupling again. Even though China and friends essentially did de-couple.

The thinking was always that the developing world relied on western consumers to develop their economies. But imo that has been shown to be false.

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Remember back in early 2008, de-coupling? That only the US was going down.. but then when Europe got hit no one ever talked about de-coupling again. Even though China and friends essentially did de-couple.

The thinking was always that the developing world relied on western consumers to develop their economies. But imo that has been shown to be false.

Or at least greatly exaggerated. Look at that "trade-to-GDP-ratio" chart. ("The trade-to-GDP-ratio is the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP. This indicator measures a country’s “openness” or “integration” in the world economy.")

tradegdp.jpg

For all countries the internal markets are always much more important than export markets (bar trading posts, like Singapore and Hongkong)

Larger countries have naturally lower trade-GDP ratios.

Though there are some distortions, like the USA is one country, and inter-state trade is not counted as export/import, whilst in the EU it is.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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