House Price Predictions

[Meat Loaf]

I like to start threads about house prices as I thought this was the point of this forum.......

Where do people perceive house prices to be by the end of 2010. Lets use Halifax HPI as Nationwide uses such a small sample and the Land registry data is months behind.

I predict a conservative 5% fall from July-December as I can't see house prices dropping nationally by more than 1% a month.

What do others think??

[Meat Loaf]

nobody want to talkabout house prices!?

[spiney]

nobody want to talkabout house prices!?

I do,

I reckon down by year end between -5% and -7%.

By year end 2011 down again between -10% and -15%

Spiney.

[Guest Noodle]

I like to start threads about house prices as I thought this was the point of this forum.......

Where do people perceive house prices to be by the end of 2010. Lets use Halifax HPI as Nationwide uses such a small sample and the Land registry data is months behind.

I predict a conservative 5% fall from July-December as I can't see house prices dropping nationally by more than 1% a month.

What do others think??

How confident are you Quantitative Easing has ceased for ever more?

[Pent Up]

I'd go with between 7% and 8% down in December.

[spiney]

How confident are you Quantitative Easing has ceased for ever more?

Spiney rule no1.

Plan for the worst. Hope for the best.

Spiney.

[Timm]

How confident are you Quantitative Easing has ceased for ever more?

I don't think there is any doubt that there will be more QE.

But I don't  think it has time to prevent housing going YoY negative by end 2010.

After then, who knows?

[Guest Noodle]

I don't think there is any doubt that there will be more QE.

But I don't  think it has time to prevent housing going YoY negative by end 2010.

After then, who knows?

Continue printing, they'll definitely be negative year-on-year . . . measured against locust skins.

[Muskoka]

I'm sorry to say that houses are definitely selling BUT some of them are coming re-available too and at a reduced price, so looks like we're heading down, but its a slow decline.

[Hip to be bear]

I wonder whether Realistbear will give us the wisdom of his experience on this thread.........In 30 days he has changed from -20% to -5%, mind you that was a few days ago. He has probably now put in an offer on a place over the weekend, changed his avatar and status and become "Realistbull"!

He will be on here to tell you it will be up 20%

FWIW, IMO, it will be around -4% from here, with a couple of bullish flat or up months on the way!

[prosto_zabrevi]

I think that prices at the end of Dec 2010 will be approaching, or have broken through, the previous 2009 low point.

I can't see how they can remain above that level given the forthcoming spending cuts and general gloominess.

[silver surfer]

I think nominal house prices will be about flat by the end of this year, and down about 5-10% by the end of 2011. After that, who knows.

But the problem is that's an average. It includes crime ridden former local authority flats in unemployment blackspots, and it includes gorgeous family homes with easy access to central London. But whatever falls we see will be mainly driven by properties that none of us want to live in. In order to see our dream properties available at prices we regard as realistic, we'll have to see percentage falls way beyond what we think is necessary.

[blankster]

I go with a modest fall from current prices - like about 5% lower.

We had green shoots, but they seem to be withering. We get gloomy economic news one day and then it's upbeat again the next day. If the consensus changes and gloom wins out, prices will start to fall more rapidly but that's probably months away, if it happens at all.

I'm seeing more and more reduced prices in property ads in the papers, when that happened before, it was the precursor of the house sales crash of '07-'08.

What I've seen locally is that while house prices have stayed flat in recent months, prices of top properties have still been booming, indicating a widening gap between the rich and the rest of us.

Edited July 11, 2010 by blankster

[Guest KingCharles1st]

I think it goes like this- when home/home loan owners need to bail out of the shit owning becasue it's (ssshhh) cheaper to rent..

So what will make it cheaper to rent over the next twelve months?

Edited July 11, 2010 by KingCharles1st

[Mrs Bear]

I think asking prices will be down a few % by the end of this year, but what I'm more interested in is sold prices.

By say November I would guess that a lot more vendors will be accepting far cheekier offers than they would ever have considered in spring/early summer.

At least I hope so, since that's when we're planning to put any offers in.

FWIW I'm not only seeing a lot more properties come on the market we're looking in (SW London), I'm seeing quite a few reductions. Inc. the odd substantial one.

TBH I wasn't expecting to see this until after the summer holidays.

[scottbeard]

They're falling about 0.5% per month at the moment, so I guess that translates to around 3%-5% below today's levels by the end of the year. 2011 falls will be steeper, once the effects of the October spending review kick in. Could be a long wait though - these things take time.

[Parkwell]

I think nominal house prices will be about flat by the end of this year, and down about 5-10% by the end of 2011. After that, who knows.

But the problem is that's an average. It includes crime ridden former local authority flats in unemployment blackspots, and it includes gorgeous family homes with easy access to central London. But whatever falls we see will be mainly driven by properties that none of us want to live in. In order to see our dream properties available at prices we regard as realistic, we'll have to see percentage falls way beyond what we think is necessary.

I think the most we'll see prices fall by years end is about 3%. They could easily remain flat. Whilst I'm a little more optimistic about 2011, because it has the possibility for falls of 15%+. I'd like to see the Haliwide average figures break below £150k during 2011. That would be significant. Sadly it is far from certain with our current politicians.

But I quoted your post because I very much agree with your point on what types of homes will fall in price. And it will take a few more big shocks to the system for those more desirable homes to return to sane price levels.

[exiges]

It depends on several things IMO:

1. How much of the 25%-40% Public sector cuts happen, and when (and it's knock-on effects)

2. What effect the end of the Special Liquidity Scheme has on lending and rates

3. How strong the pound becomes (discouraging foreign investors, or encouraging them to cash in)

4. If inflation causes wage inflation then lower real drops

5. What effect the above has on market sentiment

I think we'll see about 3-4% drops, but would hope for 6-8%

Edited July 11, 2010 by exiges

[expatowner]

I think drops of 1 to 2 % by Christmas

then a sizeable spring bounce :angry:

[jackalope]

Up 6%.

Where's Sibley? He's easily got the best track record at this sort of thing.

[PotNoodle]

2010 has seen an increase in HPI as the best quality houses have sold in an environment of very

few sales, gendering a falsely high value overall, coupled with London prices being (ludicrously)

included in National Averages.

Public Sector cutbacks and redundancies. NHS restructure (more redundancies).

Continued Private Sector slimming down. (Non employment Recovery).

Gradual tightening of household budgets.

Control of Housing Benefit and hence reduction of Buy to Let market.

All point to gradual attrition of HPI over the next three to five years.

20% fall over next 3 to 5 years.

[Tired of Waiting]

I do,

I reckon down by year end between -5% and -7%.

By year end 2011 down again between -10% and -15%

Spiney.

I like that. It does look sensible to me. A compromise between what I would like to happen (30% fall in 2 years), and what I fear could happen (prices falling by just a few percent per year for the next 10 years, Japan like).

[Tired of Waiting]

I think nominal house prices will be about flat by the end of this year, and down about 5-10% by the end of 2011. After that, who knows.

But the problem is that's an average. It includes crime ridden former local authority flats in unemployment blackspots, and it includes gorgeous family homes with easy access to central London. But whatever falls we see will be mainly driven by properties that none of us want to live in. In order to see our dream properties available at prices we regard as realistic, we'll have to see percentage falls way beyond what we think is necessary.

I think prices in cheaper areas have already fallen in the last years. Prices in better areas have resisted, but should fall next.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Small nominal drops of less than 5%.

[cupidstunt]

Up 6%.

Where's Sibley? He's easily got the best track record at this sort of thing.

Sibley lives in Maidstone, dosesn't he /she ? I bet prices will drop there, it's a bit of a s hithole! Elsewhere, here in the SE property seems to be 'flying off the shelf' most around the asking prices!