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Retail Sales In U.s. Probably Fell For Second Month As Economy Moderated

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Retail sales in the U.S. fell in June for a second month and industrial production cooled, signs the expansion will moderate in the second half, economists said before reports this week.

Purchases fell 0.3 percent after a 1.2 percent decline in May, according to the median estimate of 59 economists in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of figures due July 14. Production at factories, mines and utilities declined 0.1 percent last month, the Federal Reserve may report the next day.

Target Corp. and Gap Inc. were among retailers whose sales in June trailed forecasts as limited hiring and reduced housing wealth restrain spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Few price pressures and signs of slower growth encouraged Fed policy makers last month to renew a pledge to hold interest rates close to zero.

“Consumer spending is subdued and economic growth isn’t going to be as strong as we’ve had,” said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “With employment still weak and asset prices under pressure, the drumbeat of downbeat news is holding things down. Inflation isn’t an issue for the Fed.”

The Commerce Department’s retail sales report will show purchases excluding automobiles were unchanged last month, according to the survey median.

Auto sales fell to an annual pace of 11.1 million vehicles last month from May, industry data showed. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., the two largest U.S. automakers, reported lower-than-anticipated sales.

European Debt Crisis

Europe’s debt crisis, which has pushed share prices lower and shaken consumer and business confidence, poses a risk to the U.S. recovery. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has fallen 11 percent from its April 23 high. The S&P Supercomposite Retailing gauge is down 20 percent from this year’s peak on April 26.

“Less supportive” financial conditions were cited by Fed officials on June 23, when they reaffirmed forecasts for a “moderate” pace of growth and kept interest rates unchanged. Minutes of the meeting are due on July 14, and policy makers will also release their updated economic forecasts.

The outlook for household spending also reflects the waning of government incentives such as rebates to buy energy-efficient appliances that spurred retail sales earlier this year.

While an industrywide measure of sales at stores open at least a year rose in June for the 10th consecutive month, results trailed analysts’ estimates. Sales last month at 30 chains rose 3.1 percent after a 2.7 percent gain in May, Retail Metrics Inc. said on July 8. Analysts estimated a 3.5 percent increase.

It will be interesting to see if the figures support these predictions. Do any of these economists have access to preliminary data to come to these conclusions or is it just made up?

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Is "moderated" Newspeak for "worsened" now? Clearly I need to get a new party-approved dictionary.

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I have to say this reporting of 'news' before the news really p*sses me off.

They usually misue the word 'see' in the title as in "Retail sales see fall"...when nothing has actually happened except they spoke to a few economists who think that retail sales have fallen. It's all cr*p.

Then you get the 'unexpected' headline. "Retail sales unexpectedly rise" and Goldman and their pals are laughing round the corner.

All these news people like Bloomberg and Reuters are playing round with 'news feeds' that are rated for high frequency trading. I think this is actually affecting the efficacy of content and is contributing to traders who react on news to be 'played'.

Rant over.


From another Blog

{During an interview recently on the World Association of Newspapers’ editors’ blog, the FT’s managing editor, Daniel Bogler, wrote: “It’s unfortunate that the financial literacy and understanding of how things work in the City and of basic accounting and so on is actually very thin in financial journalism.”}

So the elites delberately employ 'Journalists' who can't/don't really see the 'whole' City Financial picture - so the banking elites could/can carry out their 'scams' without too many realising/focusing on, in depth questions?

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