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Oil Vs Houses

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If oil prices continue to rise surely property that is closer to a city/town centre, public transport or places of work will either rise commensurately or suffer smaller drops?

I have thought for a while that people who didnt buy because they were waiting for falls were going to get stung, I just couldnt see how. Now I think I do.

Properties in "desirable" suburbs will become a millstone while those closer to places of work (usually city or town centres) will hold value better.

Cities like NY will not suffer as much as Hicksville Idaho - because commuting is easy.

Same with say London and the home counties.

This is the poke in the eye for the STRs. House prices might come down enough to afford them - but can you afford to commute from (and heat!) them.

There are no winners in this situation.

Discuss......

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Electric commuter cars are already for on sale for less than 8 grand, will do 40 mile round trip on a charge.

8 grand for a commuter car V 70K off a house.

Oil price will correct itself, housing will correct itself, markets correct.

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A STR can easily move near to work so they benefit from a flexible lifestyle if you own a house in the suburbs you cannot sell.

However what may happen is that the workers will demand more money to cope with the increased costs then inflation takes off and interest rates go up.

Me i am a STR working mostly from home and am an oil/gas investor as i could see all this coming.

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Let me see, higher oil prices lead to higher inflations leads to coporate belt tightening leads to higher unemployment leads to an INCREASE in property prices. :lol::lol: Don't think so...

I think it far more likely that VIs will cite oil as the reason FOR the crash

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Rural communities will get local produce without the premium, yes premium, of transportation to the cities.

Maybe rural house prices will fare better than you think.

How will they pay for the produce? Drive to work.

And if you think the Farmers are any less cut throat than the supermarkets your mistaken.

This is the poke in the eye for the STRs.

Far from it, I used to spend something like £250 a month on Petrol when I was a home owner and my wife spend £300 on train travel. When we STR'd it allowed us to move back into london, my fuel bill is something like £60 a month and my wife's train fair is £130.

I'm even considering giving up my car all together.

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Rural communities will get local produce without the premium, yes premium, of transportation to the cities.

Maybe rural house prices will fare better than you think.

The people i know who live in remote parts spend half their life in the car.

Still think heating will be an issue - remote houses need their own gas/oil supply. Heating oil is already becoming much more expensive - if you have to refit the house to use electricity (costing lots too), then the heating bills could increase several times over - and that's before any increases in electricity prices.

If oil goes to $150-$200 (as people predict the price point that will actually get people out of their SUVs) what's the cheapest heating solution for big remote houses?

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The people i know who live in remote parts spend half their life in the car. 

Still think heating will be an issue - remote houses need their own gas/oil supply.  Heating oil is already becoming much more expensive - if you have to refit the house to use electricity (costing lots too), then the heating bills could increase several times over - and that's before any increases in electricity prices.

If oil goes to $150-$200 (as people predict the price point that will actually get people out of their SUVs) what's the cheapest heating solution for big remote houses?

Lots of warm jumpers! Actually, putting on the odd jumper when it's a little cold certainly helps not havng to use the heating in Autumn. Lots of people seem to heat their homes to near tropical temperatures whatever the weather. My housemate's girlfriend was guilty of having the heating on all summer; then again she didn't have to pay the bill!

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I'm even considering giving up my car all together.

If you live in the big smoke, go for it. I sold mine about 6 months after I moved here 5 years ago - haven't missed it at all. For the expense of running a car I don't/can't use in London you can usually rent when you *have* to drive, get taxis otherwise and still be better off.

Car ownership isn't always a rational financial decision, which explains why there's so many cars on London despite the obvious expense and hassle.

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I'm not sure if this has been thought through properly. having read the book "The Long Emergency" based on peak oil theory. People will desert urban spaces. There will be no work there as we know it now.

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If you live in the big smoke, go for it. I sold mine about 6 months after I moved here 5 years ago - haven't missed it at all.

I agree, in all the years I lived in south London I did not own a car. It did become a slight nuisance with shopping and I did yearn for a car sometimes, but I managed without.

It definitely helped me to save.

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The idea of houses and fuel is on the front page of the ABC news site in Australia right now. http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/s1449487.htm for the story.

As for heating houses, unless electricity really does become extraordinarily expensive then heat pumps are the answer. An air sourced unit will provide most of the heating needed in the UK climate (not entirely sure about your climate but I was told on this forum that it doesn't get below -5C very often. Heat pumps don't like it much below that) with the occasional boost from something else in extreme cold.

Geothermal heat pumps would provide all the heat you need, especially if it's a remote house we're talking about. Only use a quarter of the electricity of conventional electric heating. Air sourced heat pumps (literally air conditioners run backwards) use about one third to one half as much power as ordinary electric heating but are cheaper to install than the geothermal type. They are quite common where I live - though it only gets down to about 0C usually but they work fine and save $$$.

Now that they are being mass produced in China the air sourced type - "reverse cycle air conditioners" are getting pretty cheap. Just one thing though - get a "split system" or a ducted (central heating) type since the "box" design that is put through a hole in the wall is quite noisy inside.

I'm happy to crunch the running cost numbers if anyone can tell me what you pay for electricity per kWh and for a litre of oil etc. Not too sure what measurements are used for gas in UK - it varies from country to country - but it's just maths to compare them all. Likewise even coal and wood can be compared too. Just maths if someone has the raw price data.

(Edit: Note that the comment about heat pumps being cheapest was a general "rule of thumb" comment. CHECK by doing the sums using actual fuel prices that you pay before buying anything. As I said, if you have the data then I'm quite happy to explain the maths (it's fairly simple)).

Edited by Smurf1976

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Its a ll a front for the raise of interest rates..

From post No8 on this following thread

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=13819&hl=

"like the ERM of the previous recession to provide a part of the scape goat..

this time price of energy became inflationary (not the loose money supply) and we tried to manage things by cutting rates but cos of unforseeen rising energy we had to rank up rates our hands were tied...every one was caught off guard...honest!"

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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